Will China become a giant Singapore? No

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Via the FT comes Martin Wolf:

Will China emerge as a high-income country still ruled by a communist party state? If China were to achieve this, it would transform a world in which all large, high-income countries are currently democratic. It would reshape the global balance of power, not just economically and militarily, but also politically and ideologically.

…Will China turn itself into a huge Singapore, with high-income levels of prosperity and government effectiveness, but retain one-party rule? Or will its political system, economic progress or, more plausibly, both together, founder? Will Mr Xi go down in history as the man who brought China to the top of the world, or as a Chinese version of Leonid Brezhnev, whose conservatism brought the Soviet system into irretrievable disrepair? It is impossible to know how this will end. The Chinese alone will decide. We only know that it matters for us all. Meanwhile, the west has to look within, to repair its failing democratic system.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.