Macro Afternoon

As the Golden Week holiday in Japan presses on, all focus was on China today with the release of the latest PMI manufacturing print, coming in slightly lower than expected which sent the Australian dollar much lower as expected.

The Shanghai Composite rebounded slightly as a result, finishing 0.5% higher to 3078 points. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has gone the other way by retreating nearly 0.6% to finish at 29700 points. This puts the recent bounce off of daily ATR support at the 29000 point level in doubt, but we’ve been in this sort of dip situation before and should still result in another retest of the 30000 point resistance level:

US and Eurostoxx futures are down slightly,  with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 showing retracement of last nights breakout above the September 2018 high which made for a new record high:

Japanese stock markets were closed while trading in the USDJPY pair was to the downside on risk aversion with the nascent bullish rising wedge pattern only fleetingly bringing any upside relief with a retracement back down to the low 111’s for a new weekly low:

Australian stocks retreated again, despite a fall fall in the Australian dollar with the ASX200 finishing 0.5% lower at 6325 points but still looking quite strong here. The Australian dollar has finished its oversold comeback as it flopped on the Chinese PMI print, back down to the low 70s as overhead resistance remains too strong:

The economic calendar continues tonight with some very Eurocentric and Euroimportant prints – namely the only unemployment figure that matters, Germany’s for April, then CPI and EZ-wide GDP for the first quarter. In the US its the consumer confidence release for April, so it’s all happening.


  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    It’s almost like no one cares any more and secretly wants to vote Wan Nation. But doesn’t know how to declare it to their accountant.

  2. Just back from a visit to Melbourne (I’m from Sydney). Dear lord. Sydney public transport is amazing in comparison. Never have I had my head crushed against a tram/train door in Sydney. Never have I had to wait at several level crossings. Never have I encountered such dirty and dilapidated station infrastructure, at least since the mid 2000s. What. A. Hole.

    For all its faults, Sydney is coping a lot better with population growth, or at least standing still. Melbourne – you don’t stand a chance, especially with falling stamp duty receipts.

    • Funny I thought Melbourne was dealing with it better than Sydney. But I haven’t caught public transport in Melbourne for ages (except Hurstbridge line) around Xmas.

      What shocks me is a the new development toward Whittlesea. All these cookie cutter estates in South Morang.

      • proofreadersMEMBER

        Little boxes on the hillside
        Little boxes made of ticky-tacky
        Little boxes on the hillside
        Little boxes all the same…?

      • Melbourne is far, far worse. Even in frequency terms. Never had I ever had to wait more than 15 minutes for a train in Sydney. Even at 5am on a Sunday.

      • Oh yeah I remember the service got worse in Melbourne when they sold off the transport system and went private. Under the old MET system train ran regularly and on time. As soon as it was all bought out prices went up and the delays started. That was around early 2000s until around 2007 when I left. I’d imagine in population crushed Melbourne it’s far worse now and subject to more delays or cancellations.

    • Couldn’t have said it better myself. Pat is a fcuking legend, eh? I wish more people knew about him.

      His views on the religion of pieces are very sound and deserve a wide hearing too.

      • u got it LS … it’s a pity his posts aren’t more widely disseminated …

        and as for hm520 … some sort of wannabe shill …. pssst…

  3. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Just back from a week in the far west reaches of NSW …….Land to the wazoo ….all we need to do is find a way to make it produce something ………….anything …….
    …….why the fcuk would you pay a million dollars for a two bed room apartment in Pymple which your earning capacity can never pay back …….when you could buy 5000 acres in Bumfuck Nowhere that your earning capacity can never pay back …..?…………migrants to the regions ….yes …..but let’s get them on the ox and plough
    and see if they can get the green shoots sprouting ……..


      Bring in migrants by the jumbo load and collect their immigration fees. Then put them on buses at the airport and drive them out to a rural region where they get off. Just dump them in the desert somewhere where there is no water. Drive back to Sydney airport to collect the next lot.

      I think I’m onto something here.

  4. Negative gearing squeals ad.
    Has this aired yet? Really poor ad IMO. Talks about how everybody is a mum and dad investor and then showed stock footage of businessy looking stuff. Clearly the REIA has no money.

    • It covers the basics and doesn’t have a talking head. You don’t want too much info and it is enough to get through to the punters. They don’t have to win the argument, they just need enough people to think that it is a bad idea. It’s Australian policy discourse 101.