Macro Afternoon

The solid finish on Wall Street on Friday night has translated into mixed sentiment here in Asia with Chinese stocks retreating on the mainland, while Japanese bourses were closed and the ASX200 fell back slightly. A similar mixed picture with currencies and undollar assets with gold retreating following its surge on Friday while the Australian dollar kept up its mild swing play higher to remain above 70 cents.

The Shanghai Composite has started the week out again remaining below the 3100 point level by falling nearly 0.8% to 3062 points. In Hong Kong however the Hang Seng Index has gone the other way by putting on an equal amount to finish at 29852 points. This continues the nascent bounce off of daily ATR support at the 29000 point level and could result in another retest of the 30000 point resistance level:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly,  with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 suggesting a final breakout above the September 2018 high which was staunch resistance all of last week:

Japanese stock markets were closed for another holiday (probably all watching how the Night King d…) while trading in the USDJPY pair was muted as a possible bullish rising wedge pattern tries to appear in the four hourly chart which price still remaining at a weekly low:

Australian stocks retreated slightly on the rise in the Australian dollar with the ASX200 finishing 0.4% lower at 6359 points but still looking quite strong here. The Australian dollar is continuing its oversold comeback as it claws its way back from the recent monthly lows at the 70 handle, but there’s limited upside from here in my opinion:

The economic calendar starts the week with the personal consumption expenditure component of US GDP for the 1st quarter plus a speech by BOE Governor Mark Carney.


  1. I just want to post to register my satisfaction that the spambot and the hand that it has up it’s behind has been permissive of late. Quite a few posts critical of TPTB have been allowed to remain, which is how MB used to be and should be.

  2. How a “job guarantee” will be rorted:

    18 hours ago

    names on timesheets to claim money for shifts that were never performed

    Why do some left wingers think a “job guarantee” would not be rorted like pink batts, NDIS, school halls, private VET, Myki, Carer’s Allowance? And some voters are too injured to work, so a “job guarantee” would do nothing for them.

    Another program rorted:

    false claims for the Carer’s Allowance

    totalling $137,397

  3. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Just spent a week in the far west reaches of NSW ….pretty dry out there and how impressive to see paddocks with lines of neatly rolled up cotton bales ready to be shipped to China to contribute to GDP and TOT …. seems a pity though that The Darling River might be rolled up in those bales too .

    • Fantastic!

      Several nations have shrinking populations. Romania now has less people than it did in 1968!

      18 January 2018 Romania Insider

      House prices in Romania still 31% lower than ten years ago

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Wonder if Ronni Salt is related to Julian Assange . …..but no matter what …it’s wonderful to see what appears to be such well informed Australians ripping into what might appear to be corruption.(….. lest a chap get sued ) ………..a bolt of light on the dark places ….MB , Micheal West , and RS ……’s a start to the massive fightback that will be needed to reset a course for the once good ship Decent Straya ……….that’s if it’s not already on the rocks ………

  5. Matt Taibbi’s posted another good piece. This one is on the art of the smear as a way of avoiding having to do with issues.
    *Waves at Scomo*

    “The satirist Ambrose Bierce, author of the Devil’s Dictionary, once defined radicalism as “the conservatism of tomorrow injected into the affairs of today.”

    What Bierce wittily captured — that today’s radicals are tomorrow’s normies — means that at any given moment, the current political establishment will be fighting off the inevitable.

    The Brahmins of today don’t battle with ideas, because as Bierce pointed out, their belief systems are usually regressive and unpopular, only they don’t know it yet. The battle is almost always waged instead over personality, because while certain “radical” ideas may be unstoppable, individual politicians are easily villainized, delaying change — a little.”

    The fact that Australia is still trying to catch up with the far out ideas of the K-Rudd (Climate Change, NBN, Tax Reform) shows how far back we are. If this was the Stawell gift we’d be starting in Melbourne, obese, with a twisted ankle, type 2 diabetes, and probably booing someone because that other guy started it and it makes us feel good about our own shortcomings.

    • I saw this in the feed.
      I was at the pub with a CAT sales guy a few weeks ago. I asked him how it’s going. He said well, sales have picked up. There are a few new mines starting to open up. The big seller is automated equipment. It’s also getting easier to drive underground without access to GPS. An Australian company called Locata have made big jumps here and are now used by US defense. As I posted above, we are so far behind the rest of the world. Our politics is in reverse and big business is so used to it being cushy and getting handouts that they aren’t moving at the rate of their overseas brethren. Man, this whole election thing is really starting to bum me out. Imgur has wholesome days. Perhaps MB should as well. I’ll start.


    Industry participants believe the central bank and banking regulator are considering a targeted alternative to a cut to the official cash rate, which would involve lowering the minimum 7.25 per cent interest rate banks use when assessing a home loan borrower’s repayment capacity by 50 basis points to 6.75 per cent.

    This would improve the average home buyer’s borrowing capacity by more than 5 per cent and increase demand in the weak housing market,

    Improve borrowing capacity? I think he means increase the level of debt, at a time when Australian’s already have a record level of it. Good O then..