Macro Afternoon

A staid finish to the week here in Asia with most stock markets putting in losses following an equally poor showing on Wall Street overnight. The USD has weakened against most of the undollars, particularly the Australian dollar which has bounced off the 70 cent level and gold is finding some support after a very poor weak.

The Shanghai Composite has closed the week out below the 3100 point level after looking so promising, falling over 1% to 3086 points. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index has put in a scratch session in follow up to its breakdown on Thursday, falling a handful of points to 2954, still well below its own 30,000 barrier and looking weak . The next level to watch is daily ATR support at the 29000 point level proper:

US and Eurostoxx futures are down slightly,  with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 showing an inability to crest the September 2018 high as its lining up to become the staunch resistance to beat going into next week:

Japanese stock markets have fallen back again as Yen has been unable to weaken any further during the session with the Nikkei 225 losing another 0.2% to finish at 22258 points . The USDJPY pair is trying to get back on track after a violent 24 hours but has been unable to make any headway here, remaining at a weekly low:

Australian stocks are the best performers again but only by the skin of a custard with a small rise on the ASX200 to finish the week at 6385 points. The Australian dollar is trying to comeback here after falling sharply post the CPI print, rebounding off the 70 handle to be at 70.30 going into the European open, but I don’t give this much upside potential:

The economic calendar finishes the week with a big one – first quarter GDP for the US. Have a good weekend and good luck trading!


    • yeborskyMEMBER

      Genuine question. Are you rating that variety and vintage highly or just taking the p?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        What vintage? I deliberately didn’t include the winery so you chunts can’t buy it out from under me.

        As to your question, 2014 was one of the best years for reds in Australia and New Zealand for about 20 years. So definitely not taking the p. At least, not figuratively…

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        My partner in crime. How goes it, Ding?
        I bought a few bottles today to restock – Tahbilk Marsanne. The 1927 vines, about $38 per bottle in any six at Dan’s. 2012 vintage. I’ll share my last 2010 next week at a regular get-together with like minds. Bliss – try it if you haven’t already.

      • DingwallMEMBER

        Ooh nice I have been meaning to get more of that … my last bottle had a party with the tiled floor …… I was crying in the corner……

      • I have a couple of the 1927. Been to the winery a fair few times too over the years. Dan’s did a museum release of their standard Marsanne (2012?) a year or so ago for ¬$17 that was great. Long Gully Road Ancient Vines Semillion is one I’ve a few in storage of that I have high hopes for in a few years.

        For anyone looking to age bottles in an apartment this works wonders in the wardrobe.

  1. According to DFA the Core Logic Indices are based on settlement prices with an approximate two month lag. That means the prices for April are a reflection of the February “rebound” in Auction clearances. So far this month:
    Sydney -0.81%
    Melbourne -0.59%

    • nobody knows the CoreLogic mysterious ways. Certainly not DFA. From what I can tell they use settlement data for some of their products (the only real data but its old) but they also use algorithms and other black magic for some of their pro data

    • This tells me the world Economy is going into recession, money printing QE or lower rates etc.. we are at the 0 bound anyway. Negative don’t work. So where next? Wipe the debt (debt jubilee) is the only way I think.

    • @ Gavin……the choice is still the same…cancel half the debt now and lose half of what we think of as savings……or keep going and lose the lot. There is not much place in an MMT world for private savings anyway and you can see that the Fed is edging that way to fulfill the needs of the financial markets going forward. Just like Von Havenstein was filling a need for ever larger denomination of banknotes.These people are not monsters they are caught in a system they can’t control.

      The new dollars will be just as good as the ones we have now…….you just have to have real assets to get there in one piece.

    • always interesting comments at that site (although all of them could be improved by better punctuation).

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        Are you serious? Show any tendency to decry the mutilation that our wonderful language suffers here on a daily basis and you’ll get your head bitten off. Happened to me more than once – I’m “without friends” and “pedantic” for putting someone straight on a truly basic error. And punctuation is the least of it. And that includes the revered proprietors of MB.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Oh. You mean like “Anzac” Day Links.

        That was truly sad. And sadder, no one said squat.

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        Sorry, JohnR. You are quite correct. My mistake but it applies to MB and commenters in spades.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yes. But cheque value should be reduced by the ATO in some way proportional to the amount of earned interest included on the punter’s last return.

      • Nah feck that. I paid $80k in tax last year, if anyone deserves some back it’s punters like me. Who draw nothing down and only pay into it.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Edit: Forgot to explain the wherefore – thought it went without saying though – they’ll only save it and not put it back into the real economy like people without better jobs. Probably just save it for something useless. Like a house deposit.

      • I saved the first $900 Rudd gave me, it’s part of my house deposit. What else would I spend it on?

      • The $900 cheques were means-tested. The high income people were excluded.

        Should exclude foreigners as well this time.

        The people who were excluded in 2009:

        A $900 bonus will be paid to taxpayers with taxable income up to and including $80,000.
        A $600 bonus will be paid to taxpayers with income exceeding $80,000 to $90,000.
        A $250 bonus will be paid to taxpayers with income exceeding $90,000 to and including $100,000.

      • Back then I wasn’t earning $80k. So I got the full $900. Today I wouldn’t even qualify for the $250. Coke and hookers sounds fun though.. 😁 it’s amazing how cheaply some people sell their orifices for.

      • battlers earning as little as $13,000 are missing out.

        LOL! Murdoch pretending to care about poor voters who have an income of less than $14k/year!

    • If this happens post election, I assume the government of the day would have to be involved which would just leave them open to a lot of political criticism (broken promises, irresponsible spending, harming the surplus etc). Even if the RBA thinks it’s a good idea, I just can’t really see it happening under either Labor or Liberal government.

    • Hell yeh, I can buy a fvck load of green cans and 6 for $36 bottles of red for 900 shekels.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Now we’re talking! Finally, someone else who gets that $100 billion dollars should have been spent on consumerism to keep things moving. And school halls.

        Forget stupid things like infrastructure spending and preventative health-care. $100 billion would’ve barely scratched the surface there.

  2. Mr. haroldus,
    Here’s something for you.
    It’s a new release that is getting a lot of praise.
    Apparently it’s one of those things that you need to immerse yourself in to find the logic of.
    Not my cup of chai, but you were looking for something guitary and different.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    So…. MMT actually works if you are the US Of A and are the world’s reserve currency and have your dollar propped up by artificial demand for cartel greenbacks (oil, coal, gas and gold).

    But what pray tell befalls those other nations who venture down that unwary path – do they become but accidental sacrifices on the escalator to currency debasement? (third floor ladies lingerie and underwear)

    • proofreadersMEMBER

      But, but the tossers at the RBA have modelled it and a 1 percentage point drop in the cash rate will rocket house prices up by 28% and that’s all that matters. Problem fixed until next time.