Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar runs riot on BoJo win

Outside China it’s been a fairly good run across stock markets here in Asia to start the week, absorbing the weekend news and lifting on the risk-on Friday mood. The USD continues to weaken against almost everything but gold, which is facing a near three month low as buying support evaporates.

The Shanghai Composite has fallen 10 points or just over 0.3% to close below 3200 points again, currently at 3177 while the Hang Seng Index has continued its small dip, down 0.1% to 29880 points, still unable to get back to its recent steady state of daily highs above the 30,000 point level:

US and Eurostoxx futures are unchanged going into tonight’s session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 wanting to advance further on the new high establised on Friday above the 2900 points level with trailing ATR support still ratcheting higher and being respected:

Japanese stock markets were the highlight as expected with the Nikkei 225 advancing strongly, up 1.4% to 22168 points in response to a much weaker Yen. The USDJPY pair however as expected as moderated its big Friday night breakout and slipped just below the 112 handle, still above its new weekly high:

Australian stocks had a breather due to the higher Australian dollar and the lack of direction from Chinese stocks with the ASX200 putting in a scratch session to be at 6251 points.  The Australian dollar has absorbed the weekend news smoothly by gapping down slightly before recovering to be almost back at its Friday high, currently trading at 71.70 going into the City open:

The economic calendar is really quiet tonight with US Empire manufacturing and some Treasury auctions the only events of note as earnings season rolls on.

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Comments

    • Sustainable Australia (William Bourke) came 25th. Only top 21 elected.

      Gladys needs 5 upper house cross bench votes to pass legislation. One Nation x 2; Fishers x 2 and Rev. Fred Nile x 1. Alternatively she could get the Greens x 3 and the Animal Justice x 2. Will be some interesting negotiations.

    • Wonder how long Latham will last with No Notion? Reckon he’ll wait and see the Federal election outcome and if they’re nothing more than a couple of Queensland hacks, will split with Poor Lean.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      There are an awful lot of degrees, double degrees and Masters making their way into the ADF at the moment. A lot of them into base grade grunting type gigs.

      I dread to think of how a HECS debt stacks up against a Private or Leading seaman salary

      • With indexation under 2% a $60000 salary getting a 4% hit will be treading water or better at any debt under $120000.

        I was able to do a fairly vague 5 years of uni centered around 2010, racking up just over $40000 and I think that’s reasonable. It’s great that it indexes to CPI. More progressive rates to avoid a 100%+ marginal tax rate situation would be good. And importantly limiting subject fee costs to CPI. The same course load I did now would be pushing $60000.

    • ha ha ha ha!

      That article stared off with delusion or lies and then I stopped reading after she started defending negative gearing.

      people of all political persuasions in Parliament have done their best. And yet still, we seem to hold politicians in low regard.

      Done their best at replacing us with 457 visa staff.

      Some people think it’s an outrage that voting is compulsory. Millions in the world would lay their lives on the line for that

      ha ha ha. I heard Tanya Plibersek say that on Q&A a few months ago!

      The reality is, authoritarianism is increasingly popular:

      A third of Australians in favour of authoritarian or ‘strongman’ leader, study finds

      The rise in support for the idea of a ‘strongman’ greatest among Australians under the age of 35

      https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/17/a-third-of-australians-in-favour-of-authoritarian-or-strongman-leader-study-finds

      5 Jul 2016

      I toppled Saddam’s statue, now I want him back

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        The worst thing to ever happen to Iraq was the removal of Saddom! I’m all for a dictator as long as he (it must be a he) protects business profits in the process.

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        “Intellectuals are more totalitarian in outlook than the common people. Most of them are perfectly ready for dictatorial methods, secret police, systematic falsification of history, etc. so long as they feel that it is on ‘our’ side.”

        George Orwell, 1944.

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        I would add to “intellectuals”, a good mix of highly paid professionals. I have sat in meetings where such people denigrate democratic processes due to those processes allowing “uninformed” people (that is, those who would vote differently to the elitists) to vote at all.

    • I can see it now.
      You’ve arrived home and disrobed to your official MB uniform of singlet and y-fronts.
      The laptop that you’ve been borrowing from work for the past 7 years is plugged in and turned on.
      (It really could do with a new battery but would work let you borrow it again?)
      Off you go to the kitchen to get dinner.
      CCs and dip.
      You would normally inhale them but because the CCs were on special you are going to savor the robustness of this upmarket corn chip.
      It really can hold a lot of dip.
      On to the couch, laptop on belly and CCs meet the dip.
      First things first, start downloading GoTs.
      While that’s happening, you duck into MB to see what your fellow lords of the lounge are up to.
      “Look at that. Newspoll.”
      Click, and you’re off.
      Overestimating your skill you attempt to scroll and dip at the same time.
      It quickly becomes apparent that something is going to have to go to the floor: the dip covered CC, or the borrowed work laptop.
      After a rapid calculation of the greater good that would impress even John Stuart Mill, the laptop is off the belly and onto the floor.
      The CC is and dip is delivered safely to its final destination.
      Upon glancing down you notice that Marge Simpson graph and being so very easily amused spit out said CC and dip over the borrowed 7 year old work computer and stuff that I dare not my imagination to conjure.
      Once the disappoint has passed another quick JS Mill calculation is done and the greatest good for the greatest number is for TTW to continue wearing CC and dip stained singlet.
      Hurrah!!!
      Up comes the laptop and off to the Macro Afternoon page you go to let one and all know about the Marge Simpson graph.

  1. One Nation 2 seats in the NSW Leglislative Council and the Animal Justice party 1, Sustainable Australia 0. And to think, some in the media were writing ON off as never in a million years!
    Hopefully Mark Latham will carry the flag against turbo charged migration.
    Gladys will have to do some wheeling and dealing to get legislation passed, something I don’t think she is used too.
    I wonder if the body building Animal Justice member will turn up in a bikini?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/vegan-bodybuilder-former-police-detective-among-parliament-s-new-mps-20190415-p51efm.html

    • I am going to start to write to Latham. I think the one thing NSW can do is cap foreign student numbers in the state. let the ponzi go to other states …