Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Its a mixed reaction across risk markets here in Asia after the dip in stock markets overnight with Japanese stocks the only bourses in retreat, while undollar assets like gold, Aussie and Kiwi all advance against the USD.

The Shanghai Composite has closed up a couple of points to 3240, starting in the red but still unable to gain any headway following the long weekend break. The Hang Seng Index has had another slip, down 0.2% but still well above the 30,000 point level, closing at 30100 points even as this overextended rally takes a breather:

US and Eurostoxx futures have lifted slightly going into tonight’s session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 still showing a respect of trailing ATR support at the 2880 point level, but resistance above 2900 points is still too strong:

Japanese stock markets continued their retreat, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.5% lower to 21687 points, now forming a bearish double top pattern on the daily chart. The USDJPY pair remains defleated here below former trailing ATR support as it bears (sic) down on the 111 handle. The 112 handle was a bridge too far here for the risk-on pair, which may be signalling a potential end to the bull run on other undollar assets:

Local stocks had yet another scratch session with the ASX200 lifting just over one point to 6223 points, mainly due to a re-engaging Aussie dollar as a small rally in bank stocks overshadowing a small selloff in mining stocks. The Australian dollar is leaping higher again due to the consumer sentiment print, matching yesterdays high at the mid 71s and looking to break out of a two week long sideways shunt:

The economic calendar has two market moving events tonight, first the monthly ECB interest rate meeting, then US CPI for March followed by the latest FOMC minutes and the DOE oil inventory report.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I believe what we must first ask ourselves is what is the base value of a macro-business comment, and work from there.

      • The poster’s Dunning–Kruger score, multiplied by insight raised to the power of the total of puns in said post and all divided by knowledge imparted.

        ((DK * I)**P)/K

        Given that I never impart knowledge the value of my posts can not be defined and are therefore deemed priceless regardless of when or where I post.

        Note: insight is not insight into the questionable mental state of the poster, but on the topic that they are posting about.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Well, if I may suggest a nuanced version of that argument? I think we can all agree that correctness and knowledge impart the majority of the elements of a comment on MB that gentle readers care about.

        Humour is a factor too, but much like Einstein’s theory, it is both relative and special. Extra special to the point of being of little value on a sufficient number of occasions to be discounted for this purpose. Hey, I should know, right?

        Which interestingly, brings up the diversity input, or DI, for short. With all knowledge a diverse range of viewpoints and inputs well formed are essential. And that MB has in spades. I’d argue this calculable in the form C+K^DI.

        Or at the very least as, being representative, of many posters: DI+C+K.

        Present company excepted of course.

      • That formula strikes me as too crude for the task. Also, I am concerned that once it is out in the open our focus would shift from making progress on these matters of the upmost political-economic importance to merely satisfying it. Let’s just put it away and pretend it was never aired in public.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Taking a feather from Reusa’s duster I see…

        Like that time he invited some of his tenants round to his Sunday Morning Recovery Party for giggles it is then.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Because addiction making bearporn bland. There was a time when I loved starting the afternoon chatter off with a oh dear late mail bearporn article. Now even armageddon bearishness doesn’t do it. I need a bigger hit than what economic reality can give.

      If this keeps up I may have to leave the house for a cure.

  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    You should all be annualising stuff and commenting on how hard it is to pick a bottom in Melbourne/Sydney.

    • Dunno how crane drivers manage to do that these days. They have computers in them showing what is safe IRT angles etc. That guy won’t be popular, that’s for sure.

    • Kind of makes me feel a bit sad. I’m not sure why really. My father was cremated, but I guess it shows me turn from ashes to ashes. Dust to dust and our bodies decompose. But at 1 point those bones were his father and he lived a life, found a woman and had a child. Now he’s gone.