Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are mixed across Asia as this bull rally takes a small pause with the ASX200 the biggest loser as the Australian dollar remains elevated post Budget night.

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.9% going into the close at 3244 points, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has retreated 0.5% to 29821 points after getting well ahead of itself and moving into this extremely overbought position, where a small dip on mean reversion down to 29500 or so is to be expected:

US and Eurostoxx futures are flat going into tonight’s session with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 showing some hesitation here after advancing well past its previous breakout level but still setting up for a return to the previous highs above 2900 points:

Japanese stock markets are putting in a scratch session as Yen strengthens slightly, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.1% higher to 21724 points and still consolidating above its recent highs. The USDJPY pair is slowing down its recent rally as a bearish rising wedge pattern forms on the four hourly chart with the potential to reverse and head back to the 111 handle:

The ASX200 has retreated, taken back all of yesterdays gains to close 0.8% lower to 6232 points, lead mainly by banks but also gold miner Newcrest which lost more than 2%. The Australian dollar is holding steady just above the 71 handle after failing to make a substantive breakout overnight and is still below the weekly downtrend line:

The economic calendar has a couple releases of note to keep an eye out on, first being the ECB March minutes, then US initial jobless claims for the week.

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  1. I need to get my house in order. I’ve a general idea of what’s happening but my haphazard filing system is getting out of control. It’s time to geek this problem. My initial survey of options has Money Manager EX looking the goods. What’s everyone else use?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Is there an extended feature-set (for power-users)?
        Anywhere we can look at product reviews?

      • TTW,

        I believe that the LNP made wives tax deductible for all men over 65 in last night’s budget.

      • To upgrade from wife 1.0 unfortunately requires an uninstall and reboot. You can easily lose everything in the migration to wife 2.0.

        Either version can have depencies and requires ongoing licensing costs even after your finished with them.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        True, but that policy is yet to pass parliament and is likey to require a coal-based dowry, swearing allegiance to trickle-down economics and compulsory purchase of an investment property to guarantee eligibility.

        None of which float my boat.

        PS Is there a lay-a-way option and/or is after-pay available?

    • I have been using MS Money 2006 Deluxe for over a decade. Microsoft has stopped selling it so it can be downloaded free nowadays. I have evaluated others along the way and none did what I wanted. Admittedly, it was a while ago since I tried. I’ll give Money Manager Ex a go.

      MS Money Features that I like:
      – Recurring Entries for Bills, Pay Slips, etc. Can be entered manually or automatically into the accounts. Can be used to easily generate a budget template.
      – Investment Accounts for shares. Can automatically retrieve daily share prices for ASX stock. I haven’t tried this option for a while. Can report on CGT gains losses over time.
      – Even though Tax Report is for US, with the exception of CGT I have been able to use categories that closely resembles Aus Tax return.
      – Various reports including Taxes, Actuals vs Budget, Spending by category, net wealth over time. Others that I don’t use.

      • Thanks.
        I saw a lot of discussion on what to use to replace MS Money, so it must have been popular.

      • I can immediately see Money Manager Ex not in same league as MS Money. Example of what I mean, recurring payslip with gross, taxes, pre/post tax deductions, and then get it to automatically add recurrences into a new budget for an entire year.

        You can get the Sunset version from Microsoft which AFAIK doesn’t have the auto-budget functionality or online share price updates etc.

        You might need to sniff around on a Torrent site for the 2006 Deluxe version. Or if you want I will temporarily drop the install on a share somewhere.

      • Thanks for the offer. I’ll start off with MM EX and go from there. I’m not looking for granular detail, more a nice running commentary.

    • GeordieMEMBER

      Someone needs to tell those charlies that red makes things go faster. Colour scheme is all wrong!

    • Most of Australias wealth comes from digging up black rocks, brown rocks, gold rocks and farts, Is it any wonder our entire political cohort is absolutely corrupted by the companies that dig em up?

    • While journalists were lecturing plebs how to think about MMT, the corporate version of MMT was being discussed and cleared in the senate. Another express round of Game of Mates coming up.

      For historical examples see the role of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM).

    • The greater horror would be having to admit that high house prices are undesirable for a healthy economy. It would expose that the last twenty plus years have been a debt inspired delusion.

    • “Even if you don’t own property, you will be hit hard if the property market is crashing and burning because the rest of the economy will go down with it,” Dominique Grubisa, founder of investment consultancy DG Institute, told

      And looking at his website……

      Accelerator Home Study Course (Value $10,000)

      Quelle surprise…

      Oh, and this.

      Monthly Online Sessions with Dominique (Value $1,000)

      Life time access to our Property Connect Online Sessions for ongoing learning, networking and keeping your knowledge and hands-on experience at the cutting edge. These are monthly online sessions on Facebook Live with Dominique and other graduates.

      1K a month to talk on facebook. Bargain!!!

      • Hahah gold. Another parasite spruiking economic knowledge without any kind of economics degree.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Even annualised, if that’s the only money you’re loosing on Australian RE this year, you’ll be doing better than the average FHB.

        I might take up a sub (as aversion therapy) on that basis. Keep him occupied.

        I wonder if there are group sessions…

      • When I first finished uni I thought I’ll get my shit sorted and joined up to the basic MotleyFool subscription service. Was about $100 – glad that’s all they cost me as it was very quick to see they were just pushing their own other services and using the group to boost their own picks.

  2. proofreadersMEMBER

    Lovely to see happy-clappy ScoMo telling those people who look like losing their jobs at the Huggies factory that there are plenty of other jobs around in our brilliant economy, so just go get one.

    Was he channelling smokin Joe Hockey, who gratuitously told struggling would-be home purchasers some years ago, to get a better job?

    • People like Morrison and Hockey strike me as being completely sincere when they offer that advice. It’s unrealistic and it’s frightening that it is coming from people who are making decisions that effect the broader community.

      • Yep. “You lost a full time steady manufacturing job with benefits, sick leave, holidays and super. Go out and HAVE A GO, get an insecure casual gig or ride Deliveroo, you ingrate”.

      • Haha too true. The only positive is that people like ScoMo might be the ones who have to wear Adult nappies themselves. Hopefully he has a skin reaction to cheaply made Chinese nappies. 😁

      • ‘There’s nothing quite as frightening as someone who Knows they are right.’ – Michael Faraday.