Macro Afternoon

Stock markets here in Asia keep advancing on hopes that a US/China trade deal can be announced soon with the USD losing ground against all the majors, particularly Pound Sterling, while gold remains in the doldrums, Bitcoin is moving closer to $5000USD.

The Shanghai Composite is up over 1% going into the close to remain above 3200 points, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is inching up to the 30000 point level, up 1.1% to 29943 points. This pushes it well above the previous high as momentum gets into a more extreme overbought position, 30,000 might be taken out or we might see a small dip here on mean reversion:

US and Eurostoxx futures are lifting stronglygoing into tonight’s session with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 looking to advance well past its previous breakout level and setting up for a return to the previous highs above 2900 points:

Japanese stock markets are also joining in the bull run with a lower Yen helping as well, the Nikkei 225 closing 0.9% higher to 21713 points and looking to consolidate this rally with another new daily high. The USDJPY pair has pushed above its recent session highs above the 111 handle later in the session and will try to make it a new three week high tonight with momentum nicely overbought:

The ASX200 is on a tear as well, up 0.7% to 6285 points and extending its lead past previous staunch resistance at 6200 points. The Australian dollar has reversed course post Budget with a big rally above the 71 cent handle, but not above its start of week gap higher:

The economic calendar has one major release tonight of note, the US non-manufacturing ISM print for March.

Comments

    • Nicola, we can’t even produce paper nappies competitively? The raw paper is made in Australia, now it has to be sent OS to be processed and than shipped back to here at a lower price. That doesn’t make any sense? I assume the paper mills in Tassie will close next?

      • matthew hoodMEMBER

        Paper mill in Tassie is safe for now. State Gov has seen the light on this one eg; tax relief, interest free loan etc. Its sister’s mill on the mainland however is a different story.

    • A wage top up scheme would allow the minimum wage to be cut to $10/hour while still giving these factory workers an income of $50k/year.

      $10/hour = $18,240/year. Plus a $31,760/year wage top up means their income is $50k/year while the factory can compete against foreign factories that pay $10/hour.

      Paramedics are paid $57k/year.

      The ALP took wage top up to the 1998 federal election!

    • the statement” “If this doesn’t make the state government wake up and realise they actually need to be proactive in creating jobs in our region, then nothing ever will.”
      made me look at the NSW elections 2019 results map where I found out in Campbelltown 52% voted Labor, 25% voted Liberals … makes me thinking the state government has a message for them: “Get stuffed!”

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Cut income taxes to Zero up to average wage and make up the differences in tariffs and import duties.

  1. Mining BoganMEMBER

    This one is especially irksome. Caretaker PM Scummo’s big election plan was gonna be the mussie asylum seekers are going to kill us in our sleep so for our safety he’ll ship ’em off to Xmas Island…at a mere cost of $185m just getting things ready. Then Christchurch happened.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/02/australia-federal-budget-2019-refugees-jobactive-josh-frydenberg-christmas-island

    $185m spent on race-baiting for political purposes. These bozos should forfeit their super and benefits for crap like this. Some pay back. Then once their debt is paid off we hang them.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Desperate sellers offer to cover stamp duty, cut asking prices just to find a buyer | (original The Daily Telegraph) PerthNow

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/lifestyle/real-estate/desperate-sellers-offer-to-cover-stamp-duty-cut-asking-prices-just-to-find-a-buyer-ng-990f3da7f4ece56264d8ab5b308d20ed

    AIDAN DEVINET The Daily Telegraph

    April 3, 2019 1:57PM

    Sydney’s housing slump has delivered a feast of bargains for home seekers, with sellers offering to sponsor buyer stamp duty bills and cut up to $265,000 off their prices.

    The deals have come as data released this week showed Sydney’s median home price dropped another 0.9 per cent over March to hit $782,000 — nearly 14 per cent below what it was in July 2017 when the market peaked.

    Some of the biggest bargains are being offered in suburbs spread across Sydney’s north and south, where buyers are nabbing homes at an average of more than 10 per cent below listed prices. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • It was the Mad Monk when booting Toyota and GMH who said multinationals shouldn’t be chased down the street with an open chequebook.
      Besides government assistance (free money) to make them stay would likely be challenged by China as a breach of our free trade agreement obligations that this coalition government and the ALP passed thru Parliament.
      Better we deindustrialise, makes it easier for the transition to renewables.

  3. When there is nothing left in manufacturing to protect we can than volunteer by referendum to be a new province of China

    • So the writer is comparing Sydney to cities in Germany, in particular public transport. For start I think the largest city there is Berlin at only 3.5 million! Also possibly a fact check – it cites free public transport for students. It was while ago and maybe its changed but I don’t remember that when I was a student there myself, we had to pay for buses and trains. Possibly just one particular city or Bundesland (state) does it.

  4. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Preliminary report on the Boeing crash in Ethiopia is out.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/03/ethiopian-airlines-crash-boeing-software-engaged-repeatedly

    Basically, once MCAS activates, the plane is doomed. Turning off electric trim switch of stablizer and manually trimming, as Boeing suggests, does not work : you cannot turn the manual trim that fast. So if the pilot didn’t stop MCAS within the first minutes, the plane cannot be saved.

    I don’t think a software fix will be enough.

    • Not true. The problem with MCAS is that it doesnt behave like a standard trim runaway which pilots of the 737 have been trained on for decades. If they were aware how it worked, cutting the trim switches would work fine. That article is being a bit simplistic. If the pilots used the trim switch on the column, it temporarlily disables mcas for 5 seconds. The trim cutout switches are a different thing which should have entirely disabled it.
      The whole “people familar with the issue” and the lack of citing any actual sources stinks of bullsh1t jounalism.
      Go over to pprune if you want to read about pilots talking about what they think the system does. (Lots of bullsh1t there too though)