It’s like herding cats! From the lunatic Shadow:
Australia’s economy, in spite of its relatively low unemployment rate of 4.9%, is showing sign of weakness. CPI inflation, most recently equal to 1.8% in the December quarter, remains below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target band of 2-3%. Consumer and business confidence measures are softening, while house prices in the major capital cities are still retreating. The RBA Shadow Board’s conviction that the cash rate should be held constant next week barely budged while the bias towards a required increase in interest rates is lessening. More specifically, the Board attaches a 61% probability that holding interest rates steady at 1.5% is the appropriate setting, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 33% and in a required rate cut equals 6%.
According to the ABS, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia has fallen to 4.9% (February). However, total employment only increased by 4,600, and full-time employment actually fell by more than 7,000. The participation rate, accordingly, dropped slightly to 65.6%. There was no new data on wages growth. Its sustained weakness remains a concern.
