Goldman: Aussie dollar to rise

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I hate agreeing with Goldman, especially on Australia, where it has been horribly wrong for years (being far too bullish). To be honest, the cross-over with mine and the GS view is minimal. The RBA is going to cut. And that will pressure the AUD.

But I do agree that the AUD has a good tailwind in a Chinese rebound, and that same firming of growth in H2 should lift Europe and the EUR (which will weigh on DXY), so I recognise that that lifts the prospect of an AUD rebound in the short term, especially so given how short markets are both EUR and AUD.

If so, this is a tradable rally and nothing more. It does not alter my view that the big move ahead is still down for AUD longer term, much further down, as China’s structural issues grind it to an inexorable halt.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.