Chinese data for March is out and is, as always, eye-popping. GDP slowed markedly in the quarter 1.4% though annual held up at 6.3%:
Under the bonnet it starts to get stupid. Industrial production rocketed to 8.5% as the trade war crushed output. That’s just a plain lie in my book but we can’t have El Trumpo appearing to win. Retail sales firmed at 8.7% and fixed asset investment is climbing at 6.3%:
For Australia the action is always realty and on that front the building just keeps getting bigger with floor area under construction up 8.2% YTD from already preposterous levels:
Starts are still running up 6% Yoy:
Sales have rebounded to down just -0.9% now, helping close the gap with starts but land sales are still down -33% so there is doubt here too:
Steel output remains outrageous on reform and exports covering any domestic softness (of which there ain’t much):
Cement is weak suggesting that infrastructure is soft too (the diamond marks the spot):
In sum, these figures are largely bullshit. But they do tell us what’s coming. Stimulus is off the hook again, realty will likely follow and Chinese growth will accelerate in H2 with another round of apartments to nowhere. So long as the credit flows so will the growth, via Credit Suisse:
