Like, super long, via Mark the Ballot:
I spent a little time this weekend looking at the seat betting markets from sportsbet, which I will be following until the Federal election.
Because bookmakers set the odds at prices that ensure they cover their liabilities regardless of who wins (with thanks to the bookmakers‘ over-round or “vigorish”), the odds reflect the collective view of the punters on the probability of an event occuring. We can use the odds from the election prediction markets to discern the election outcome the punters think is most likely.
