Interestingly, the odds for the Coalition have improved slightly since the election was called. This morning they stand as follows.
The odds charts follow.
And the implied Coalition win probabilities are as follows.
The individual seat markets provide a window on how punters think the election race is progressing. At the moment, Labor is the favourite in 91 seats at Sportsbet. Last week it was the favourite in 94 seats. Last week the Coalition was favoured in 51 seats, this week it is 54 seats. The Coalition gained three from Labor (Bass (Tas), Brisbane (Qld) and Page (NSW)), although in Brisbane (Qld) it is only a minority favourite.
We can see a similar outcome over the week in the summed probabilities approach to reckoning the election outcome from individual seat prediction markets. Today, the most likely Labor outcome at the election according to the betting markets is Labor with 88 seats. Last week that was 89.5 seats. The most likely Coalition outcome is 54.5 seats. Last week that was 52.9 seats.
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
