Australian Politics

Betting markets edge towards Coalition

David Llewellyn-Smith
Monday, 29 April 2019
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Via Mark the Ballot:

This week the candidates were declared in each seat. We have had some small movements on the individual seat prediction markets since I last reported on Tuesday. In terms of the favourites, the changes since Tuesday are:
  • the Coalition is up by two seats: in Indi (Vic) and Herbert (Qld)
  • Independents are down one: Helen Haines (Independent) is no longer the favourite in Indi,
  • the Labor Party is down by one: in Herbert.


On the summed probabilities, Labor is down from 87.5 to 86.4, and the Coalition is up from 55.1 to 56.3.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.