Australian dollar pop and drop as global risk sours

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

DXY eased overnight as EUR was bought:

AUD popped and dropped with risk trades:

Gold lifted:

Oil fell:

Metals were mixed:

Big miners flamed out:

EM stocks eased:

Junk was fine:

Treasuries were bid:

The bund curve flattened:

The Aussie curve too:

Stocks pulled back moderately:

US JOLTS softened markedly:

The number of job openings fell to 7.1 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.2 percent.

…The number of quits was little changed in February at 3.5 million. The quits rate was 2.3 percent. The quits level was little changed for total private and for government.

These are still good numbers. NFIB small business sentiment was steady:

But small businesses are shedding jobs now:

Not unexpected given the fiscal cliff and other headwinds and not so bad as to cause panic but worth watching certainly.

Meanwhile, Europe is still outdoing the US slowdown. With more external weakness to come:

Led by China:

And a nasty inventory overhang threatening recession dynamics:

There’s no quick snap back coming in German and European growth. So long as European prospects remain more dim than the US the AUD is on a hiding to nothing.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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