Australian dollar ignores bad data wave

Data has been poor in both China and at home today but it doesn’t matter much as the AUD has held the mid-0.70s as markets are now (rightly) banking on MOAR credit from China:

Bonds caught a little bid:

XJO is down moderately, not helped by Google’s after hours miss:

Dalian is up going into Labor Day holidays. May/June is the risk:

Big Big Iron is copping it again on the China PMIs:

Good to see Big Gas copping it too:

Big Gold isn’t happy:

Big Banks have paused:

Big Realty is in the dog house as the preposterous DHG rally gets slaughtered:

Overvalued, profit growthless, warnings spreading, a real dog of a bourse.

Comments

  1. The markets and MB as well appear to think China can just simulate full stop. I am surprised MB has not mentioned once the Kyle Bass notion that China is able to stimulate only when it has a surplus of USD. If it runs out of USD surpluses (as he asserts they are judging by their current account and foreign reserves) they can no longer stimulate without a huge fall in their currency. I am not going to link to the numerous sources for this thesis as I can only assume most here have seen it already. But it is annoying to say the least how the markets in general think dear leader Xi can just wave a magic wand and everything is better without thinking for one iota about the consequences.

      • Yes but where does this capital flow from? My understanding is that they can get USD from the trade surplus with the US (which is pretty much out of their control) and from issuing securities in the US, which is only feasible as long as there are investors willing to invest. There is only so much that the trade surplus can expand, particularly with the Trump administration trade war. So their ability to get dollars is limited to dumb investment from US pension funds basically. You state capital flows into China and out almost as though it is based on a law of physics with president Xi as the God.

      • PolarBearMEMBER

        LOL I agree, he looks cool and talks well, but he’s been wrong more times than most investors can afford!

  2. the Eurodollar system is resulting in a shortage of USD …. there should be a +ive move in USD soon …