Via Crikey:
Two polls from Warringah are in public circulation, both conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for GetUp! The first came in October, and found over half the electorate’s voters were receptive to the idea of supporting an independent; the second, conducted in February shortly after Zali Steggall entered the race, credited her with a thumping lead of 57-43.
While it’s true that seat polling has a less than stellar record, its errors are rarely on the scale of 7% — and the result clearly wasn’t far off what has been showing up in the internal research of the Liberal Party, who are making no secret of their view that Tony Abbott has a mountain to climb if Warringah isn’t to go the same way as Wentworth.