Worst property correction in 50 or 100 years?

Tuesday, 19 March 2019

But it couldn’t happen here, via the AFR:

The fall in Sydney real house prices is close to hitting its average downturn decline at only halfway through the average downturn cycle, setting it up for the sharpest drop for the city since 1965, a BIS Oxford Economics study shows.

The average downturn for Sydney house prices is 14 quarters and the average total real price decline each downturn is 21 per cent. The current downturn has progressed through six quarters to December 2018, but real median prices – taking out the effects of inflation – are already down 16 per cent.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.