Via Westpac:
Given the intense focus on Australia’s housing markets at the moment and in light of our recent commentary around the best way to interpret auction market results (seehere) we will start putting out short previews each Friday and summary updates the following Monday setting out how results should be viewed.
Key points heading into the March 23-24 weekend –
Last weekend (March 16-17):
- final ‘unadjusted’ clearance rates: Sydney 54.2%; Melbourne 52.1%
- slippage between preliminary and final estimates: Sydney -8.9pts; Melbourne -1.6pts
- ‘withdrawal rates’: Sydney 15.3%; Melbourne 4.5%
- estimated seasonally adjusted clearance rates: Sydney 52.2%; Melbourne 49.8%
- estimated ‘withdrawal adjusted’ clearance rates: Sydney 51%; Melbourne 48.1%
This weekend (March 23-24), based on historical averages:
- assumed slippage between prelimimary and final estimates: Sydney -5.5pts; Melbourne -1.5pts
- seasonal adjustment: Sydney -2ppts; Melbourne -2.3ppts
- ‘withdrawal rate’ adjustment, deduct difference between observed withdrawal rate and: Sydney 14%; Melbourne 3%
Also, note that the NSW state election to be held on March 23 is likely to see significantly lower auction market activity this weekend.
All figures are based on preliminary and final auction results provided by CoreLogic.
