What does rising unemployment do to house prices?

Advertisement

A couple of charts from Westpac gives us some idea:

Notice how VIC and NSW have kept a long term relationship between the cost of debt and arrears rates. But in QLD and WA that has broken down with Perth absolutely collapsing.

The key, I suggest, is unemployment. WA has seen the largest move up in the jobless rate as its property market came apart, while other states have improved:

Advertisement

There will be many other factors here. WA has seen a comprehensive boom and bust with mass deflation in all corners.

But it is a standing warning for the RBA that if it waits for unemployment to rise before easing then it is also be waiting for house prices to fall much further as the internal dynamics of tightening credit seize banks with rising loan losses.

Advertisement
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.