Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are having another mixed session despite the positive sentiment from overnight with all eyes still on the bond markets, particularly the Australian. The Aussie dollar took a dive in sympathy with the Kiwi as the RBNZ signalled another possible rate cut is on the way while Yen remained soft against USD.

The Shanghai Composite is hanging on just above 3000 points going into the close, currently up 0.4% to 3009 while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is doing even better, up over 0.5% to 28723 points. This keeps momentum in the positive zone and respecting the previous daily lows at the 28500 point level, but it’s still looking weak here:

US and Eurostoxx futures are rising going into tonight’s session with the four hourly chart of the S&P 500 continuing its bounce off support at the 2800 points key level with a retest of the previous high at 2860 points still probable as the week rolls on:

Japanese stock markets have failed to continue their own bounce back, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.2% lower to 21378 points, but still maintaining a good distance above key support at the 20600 level. The USDJPY pair is still unable to gain any upside traction here, not filling last night bounce as it comes up to trailing ATR resistance at the 110.70 level on the four hourly chart:

The ASX200 is  up a few points again, closing only 0.1% higher to 6136 points to remain well below staunch resistance at 6200 points. The Australian dollar swiftly reversed all of the previous two nights gains as the Kiwi dropped over one handle lower on the RBNZ shift. The 71 handle is the support level to watch going into tonights session as this rally failedto push up to last week’s high at 71.60:

The economic calendar continues tonight with no big releases, rather a series of central banker speeches, starting with Super Mario but finishing the night with oil sensitive DOE inventory data.

Comments

    • You can’t say anything that doesn’t fit the narrative these days. I’m afraid where this is heading, eventually enough people will wake up to the world around and our ugly history of the 1900s will repeat. I am genuinely concerned and wish I never read the news.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Yet the NZ gubmint are selling the nutcase’s manifesto for $102 after banning anyone from having it.

      Fancy having to be government approved to read a few pages of old memes.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      *sigh*

      Yet the NZ gubmint are selling the nutcase’s manifesto for $102 after b a n n I n g anyone from having it.

      Fancy having to be government approved to read a few pages of old memes.

    • Trout à la Crème

      ‘He claimed the manager said one of the team members were offended by his comments…’
      So what that is the team member’s problem.

      • It is satire if the target is a darling of the right, it is a phobia of the target is a darling of the left.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Yes that’s is indeed Betoota Advocate worthy.
      ….and (am now a NZ criminal ) ….have read Tarrant’s “manifesto “………..don’t know why Jusinta is so keen to suppress it ………it is the ramblings of a man who seems to have spent too much time alone ….would have thought it better to let the average Kiwi ( who I have found to have a more than fair quota of intelligence and downright decency ) to make their own minds up …….have no doubt they would arrive instantly at the right conclusion about this pathetic misguided gesture ………

    • Not being able to speak openly and discuss opinions about these things is possibly what causes the nut jobs to do what he did in NZ.

    • robert2013MEMBER

      Just wow. I have a friend who posted on facebook about the same that on “national harmony day” he pulled someone up at work for being racist talking about Somali gangs in Melbourne. The argument ended up with my friend referring the issue to the person on site who deals with such things (equality prefect? can’t remember the official title). My friend is a fine person, but committed to so called left wing ideology. In another post around that time he posted a picture of the so called pyramid of white supremacy (see it here: https://blavity.com/professor-uses-pyramid-of-white-supremacy-to-teach-education-class), arguing that if you pull out the bricks at the bottom of the pyramid, then the structure will come tumbling down. I pointed out that there is no evidence to suggest that racism is structured in a pyramid form and that racism is present in all cultures and all places, and therefore probably has much deeper roots than could be dealt with by telling people off all the time. On the contrary, it is perfectly conceivable that repressing people’s ability to speak their minds could cause massive anger and resentment. I think we at MB are well aware that importing tons of people so that wages are driven down and house prices up is bound to piss people off en masse sooner or later. Anyway, if this is the game the fake left want to play they are storing up a world of hurt for themselves. It makes me so very sad to see my friend lining up on the side of those who believe that you can solve a problem by preventing people from discussing it or pretending it doesn’t exist.

    • Think that’s bad, I heard people were banned from MB for mentioning it.

      Jokes aside, isn’t this what BT wanted? accelerationism, driving people more to the extremes to speed up the ‘uprising’?

  1. Early days… But cmon Sustainable Australia grabbing an upper house seat in NSW! Neck and neck with Animal justice party atm. Keep Sydney Open looks a shoe in.

  2. Just watched the vid between Adams and Joye. The chart that Joye produced showing debt serviceability vs house prices seems very convincing and hence his bragging about TKO…. except where in that chart does it show the reckless lending pre-RC and dramatic fall in borrowing capacity post-RC?

    A pity Adams incapable of picking up on this and reinforcing his attempted point on credit impulse.

    • Adams was ill-prepared, he kept banging on about 1880 when he should have focused on the Royal Commission, lack of lending standards. IO loans, foreign buying and China’s own debt bubble, the uncanny similarities between Ireland and the US in 2007, house price to income ratios, the mania of the bubble and bidding frenzies and then reiterated there has never been a RE boom that didn’t end in some form of bust and finished off by stating the current expansion period in the US is the second longest in history and there is now more debt globally than prior to the GFC and Australia only dodged the bullet last time thanks to China. This time China is on the mat and unlikely to be our saviour.

      • Agree it wasn’t a TKO, more like a 1st round KO to Joye.
        Joye controlled the debate and set the terms of the debate. And that was because Adams chose to focus on debt and a “debt bubble” (not defined) to somehow prove that there would be a crash in housing.
        And this has been a huge problem from the bear side. The focus on debt automatically leads to a debate around debt serviceability and affordability, which is weak ground because interest rates are so low.

        If you want to have one of these debates, you have to set the terms of the debate. If your argument is housing is a bubble, defend that using a standard valuation argument (not irrelevant tangents around debt).

        Unfortunately the bears from the Austrian camp either don’t get this or don’t want to get this because they can’t admit the private sector can make such poor decisions all by themselves.
        So of course these are the straw men who get thrown into debates on the mainstream media.

      • I agree, Joye argued better than Adams. But he also came across as a completely arrogant asshole.

      • Finally had a look and it was pretty much as I expected.

        Adams had that frantic bear tone that is so common on these threads.

        Absolutely certain there is a bubble and that this time it must pop but struggling to explain why it has not already popped.

        Talking about 1890 and 1931 is a solid indicator of the problem.. Talking about Ireland and Spain is not much better.
        The differences between those periods and the present are substantial.

        Not least is the bi-partisan commitment to do whatever it takes to protect the housing market AND the banks that extended credit to households.

        Talking about the misallocation of resources in the form of poorly regulated bank credit for speculation in the existing housing stock is what Adams should be talking about.

        That is the problem not whether it will pop or not.

      • The debate was nice but the key point is the path to normalusing interest rates, and whether asset prices can be bled without sparking a panic. Rising incomes and particularly wages would ease the adjustment but RBA not lucky on that one yet.

    • After all – what’s the worst that can happen? The carnt leaves and you get more free places for your relations parties, non?

    • Well I check the rent tracker site and rent hasn’t increased or decreased it’s stayed the same in Inner West Sydney.