Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Today’s BOJ interest rate meeting came and went without much fuss, as Chinese markets were buoyed by higher house price growth. The USD retreated against all the majors, particularly offshore trading in Yuan.

The Shanghai Composite was doing well mid session but is now heading towards 3000 points, still up over 0.5% to end the week though. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has finally broke out above 29000 points, closing 0.7% higher and looking ripe to follow through here on the daily chart:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly as markets start to regain confidence. The S&P 500 four hourly chart is still showing some hesitation in following through on gains above the 2800 point level:

Japanese stock markets are up solidly following the BOJ interest rate meeting, despite a strengthening Yen, with the Nikkei 225 closing nearly 1% higher to just over 21474 points, but still unable to break free of its previous breakout point in early February. The USDJPY pair has retreated slightly, falling below previous trailing ATR resistance before a late recovery this afternoon. There is still the potential for a run up to last weeks high at the 112 handle but it maybe too far to reach tonight:

The ASX200 is the worst performer in the region, closing down 0.1% to 6175 points with bank shares behind the weak end to the week. The Australian dollar remains volatile with a wide trading range day, still below the 71 handle but with no direction as the megaphone pattern on the four hourly chart continues to play out:

The economic calendar finishes the week with the final EZ wide CPI prints for February, then the Uni of Michigan sentiment survey and February industrial production numbers in the US, plus a private oil rig count.

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  1. Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating and price target on ANZ Bank, citing a range of issues facing the bank.

    The broker said revenue pressure was growing, ongoing positive cost surprised looked unlikely, de-risking was largely complete, capital management options were reduced, ROE was not recovering and their share price was vulnerable to earnings downgrades.

    “While ANZ’s business mix should provide more scope than peers’ to adapt to an increasingly difficult operating and regulatory environment, we believe it currently faces execution challenges in Australian retail and business banking, with housing loan growth and deposit growth below system,” said analyst Richard Wiles.

    The broker downgraded its rating to ‘underweight’ and reduced its price target from $26.00 to $25.00.

    • For “increasingly difficult regulatory environment” read “unchanged regulatory environment that simply requires not egregiously ignoring existing regulations”.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      What a down grade by a dollar after all that
      Fair dinkum how much do these jokers get paid

  2. Elon has unveiled the Model Y. Tesla share have not gone up.

    U$290 now and U$290 on Monday.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Unfortunate name considering the original Carnegie made America great on all that fossil fuel

    • “Broker behind you” Sounds like a position Reus would likely to be in on a Friday or Saturday.

      • That was the best bit …. all I could think of was rogering from the OZ vernacular …

        I mean come on … the whole broker thing was established to hive off risk for the big banks, otherwise they would never have gained market share.

  3. Brenton …

    War is a Racket is not you know what …

    Edit … some don’t seem to like the machinations of the so called free market when its their turn ,,,

  4. OK …. when is the last time a 2nd or 3rd world nation military invaded or bombed a developed nation and if one wants take Hudsons experiences in to considerations.

    • strong claims considering:
      1. MMT intentionally or most likely otherwise misrepresents mainstream theory – and confuses shifts with movements along a curve. Or says the curves don’t exist, or may be vertical yet there are multiple deficit levels to achieve full employment. Who knows what they are saying least of all themselves let’s be honest.
      2. Cannot answer basic questions like those posed by Krugman clearly without long didactic diatribes about loanable funds, the Wicksellian natural rate of interest blah blah blah.
      3. Cannot clearly state what their theory is.
      For example:
      Is expansionary monetary policy expansionary? Yes or no.

      • Mate I’m PK for this topic … you should know and yeah … like years ago… now your confused ….

  5. @Footsore

    You have hit the nail on the head. It isnt the main articles written by LVO or HnH which are racist, but a lot of the comment which works its way in gets very racist. Not the good comments from guys like Gunna or Pfh007, but the alt right crowd mainly.

  6. OMG Skip, could you get any more stupid. This blog is left wing (economically) in the extreme.

  7. Timmeh,

    Then why should they expect others to change their views and tone? That seems to be what the discussion is about. Change. we want change. Yet you’re suggesting the world should change for the better around us while we sit still in all our unquestionable perfection.

    I support MB because it promotes change and demands that Australia be independent and have some standards of self respect and accountability that comes from honest introspection coupled with intelligence. That also seems to be the case for many of those that comments section. If they are unable to apply it to themselves while condescendingly dismissing the motivations and intellectual capacities of those they did with then they deserve to be ignored and dismissed. If they don’t, and they wish for a reasonable discussion in immigration to take place then they can set the standard for reasonable and let others look like children.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yes, thank you, and all of the above + 1.

      But… I think we’re both playing to a fairly one-sided audience re standards of debate, seriousness and language usage.

      Lie down with dogs and you get fleas… springs to mind briefly.

      PS Adern is total class – could have spent the entire press conference talking about foreign actors and didn’t. Dutton would have totally focussed on that. And then would have got the Defence Minister to buy another submarine.

  8. drsmithyMEMBER

    OMG Skip, could you get any more stupid. This blog is left wing (economically) in the extreme.

    LOL. Yes, that’s obvious from their endless articles advocating things like centralised wage bargaining and nationalisation of all industry.

    • Couple of factual errors.
      For example, Sydney property can’t have been nearly $500k in 2004. Property doubles every 7 years in Australia, so it can’t have been more than $250k.

      • Cress isn’t fazed by the prospect of a fall in house prices hitting The Block’s ratings. “We won’t be making any secret of that this year,” he says. “It will be a soft landing but in the meantime everyone is going to run around like chickens with their heads off.”

        LOLz… lower teh rates!

  9. FiftiesFibroShack

    ScoMo is correct. Terrorism is just politically motivated violence. Besides, this shooter has already expressed similar views to those held by Anders Breivik and various other white nationalist murderers. Whether they commit their crimes under the same banner is irrelevant. They’re motivated by the same ideology.

  10. Did it ages ago. Write us an article which says serfs we’re responsible for feudalism.

  11. Brexit driving up wage growth in the UK (presumably) – I guess that makes sense – UK wages growth rose sharply from a low point in the middle of 2014 and since then has been oscillating between 2% and 3%. The ‘yes’ result in the 2016 referendum does seem a likely cause, and easy to see the effect in wages growth graphs –