Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Bonds, not stocks or houses, are pointing to Australia’s future

It was a mixed repsonse to the trifecta of Chinese internal economic data, slightly overshadowed by the Japanese government looking to downgrade its growth forecasts, which sent Yen falling against USD. The Yuan fell too on the lower PBOC fix, while Pound Sterling continued its no deal Brexit reaction and sold off throughout the usually quiet Asian session.

The Shanghai Composite is back below 3000 points, falling 1% in response to the Chinese NBS comments on the trifecta economic releases while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is putting in a scratch session, down only a few points to 28781, unable to continue its recent bounce off trailing ATR support on the daily chart. The next level to beat remains the former daily highs above 29000 proper, but a new daily high is really required soon:

US and Eurostoxx futures are flat as markets got slightly overbought overnight. The S&P 500 four hourly chart shows some hesitation in following through on gains above the 2800 point level breached last night:

Japanese stock markets are barely squeezing out a positive result, despite a much weaker Yen, with macro forces turning caution inward. The Nikkei 225 has closed about 0.2% higher to just over 21327 points, still unable to break free of its previous breakout point in early February. The USDJPY pair has shot straight up to trailing ATR resistance at the mid 111’s on the back of the government downgrade, with a potential run up to last weeks high at the 112 handle possible:

The ASX200 is the best performer in the region, closing up 0.3% to 6179 points as the Australian dollar rejects resistance overhead at the 71 handle and gets back to its Monday gap high starting place:

The economic calendar is a bit slower tonight with a variety of second and third tier releases, including US initial jobless claims, but expect more Brexit shenanigans!


  1. Now, for Bolstrood, the feral, who has been telling us that solar thermal is proven, reliable technology; Well he is wrong. It is a failure here and globally, read on:
    Rumour is: The CBA is wrestling with about $100 million exposure to Sundrop Farms, a sunlight and seawater-powered tomato farm near Port Augusta.
    Sundrop — an eco-farming wonderland, uses 23,000 mirrors, focussed, for heating a thermal salt plant >>was heralded as a groundbreaking project.
    But it is NOT a hot proposition.
    Sundrop is supposed to produce 39 megawatts of thermal energy, for generating electricity, for heating and making sea water into fresh for the crop of tomatoes.
    But over 3 years, it has been producing far less.
    And, while the solar-driven project was supposed to rely on the grid for only 10-15% of its power needs, that number is a lot higher.
    American private equity giant, KKR — which also put a cool $100m into the 20ha facility in 2016 — couldn’t exit the thing fast enough.
    The bad news for KKR and CBA is that, the going price, offers, for the show is about
    $30m –plus or minus a few tomatoes. $170million burnt by the sun.

      • They say the second mouse gets the cheese
        but these things are failures
        remember the geothermal at Inniminka, was going to do wonderous things
        and carnegie the wave magicians in WA
        these projects have to be super large and kept simple
        the smart people to build and run these plants are all working for SpaceX
        2 other projects over there to keep an eye on
        the coal to gasoline at Leigh creek
        and gupta and his steel mill
        both will go the same way
        Taxpyer funded>>>of course

      • “They say the second mouse gets the cheese” – and we say only Lefthanded Mouse produces the cheese.

      • No havent seen any financials
        Rumour also is the crop became infected
        That solar water heating was to be trialled at Kogan CK power station in (Dalby)
        the equipment was ordered and delivered, and stored on land owned by a 3rd party
        but non payment of the rent, resulted in the equipment being seized
        which i understand is still the current outcome.
        tax payer funded>> of course

      • Haven’t seen official records but I saw the business plan. In theory it had very good margins based on it producing 95% of its own energy, bio security was supposed to be very strong given the isolation of the facility. Initial company structure routed all the way back to the Isle of Mann, I just can’t work out why…..

      • LOL, hasn’t seen financials but goes and spouts off as usual stating it’s doomed. WW yelling at clouds that don’t suit his agenda again.

    • I remember watching a segment about Sundrop on Landline and yeah, was described as enviro friendly wonderland.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        with a biofuels powered engine, I could hook Reusa and Harry up to a funnel and power an indoor grow-light

    • The mental ferals are certainly on the loose today.

      CSP – solar thermal had a price drop of 50% in 2017 – and then again in 2018. Sundrop was first built in 2010 – then expanded again in 2016.

      Seriously dude – WTF are you talking about ? Its not an energy plant – its a tomato producing plant.

      Solar thermal plant in Spain built in 2010 (?) averages 2.5% of the entire Spanish grid, and peaks at 10% – that is HUGE.

      Sundrop has secured a 10 year contract with Coles and is already the largest supplier in Australia. KKR is actually looking to EXPAND to other investors as Sundrop has been so successful and investec has been appointed to oversee the expansion.

      You are so absurdly full of lard – my god.

      NEEEEXT !

      • Had a skin full of piss at the bowlo and just repeating the rubbish the other old carnts there are spouting, no doubt.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      “i was only trying to keep up with the joneses”

      will be on Australia’s headstone

      • Here lies footsore.
        Male, pale, stale and incompetent.
        Luckily, only the first three mattered.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Personally, a 600ft monolith with the following inscribed on it will suffice:

        “Now you tossers are really up ship creek.”

        Black Italian marble, maybe some quartz edging with some embedded Swarovski crystals. Nothing tacky.

      • Are we being silly?
        In that case.
        I want a plot in every section of our segregated cemeteries. Every denomination and every race and every nationality. I’d like a mannequin’s lower half coming out of each plot. A flower can go in the vase that is built in the crutch region of each mannequin. Something that would bother each group on each gravestone. Nothing offensive or vulgar. The gravestone equivalent of Whithnail in the wine bar. Nope, a chalkboard headstone. Name, birth, death carved in the stone and then others can take turns at scribbling nonsense. And every year, at my time of death, I’d like this piece of music to play simultaneously at all my plots.
        That’d be just swell.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You forgot a coin-slot for the Libs and Nats to put post-death tax deductions and capital gains discounts into.

        Otherwise: 👍

    • I’ve stopped my daily coffee. A bit about saving but for some weird reason recently my tolerance for caffeine has dropped. Was leaving me feeling all weird and anxiousy.

      Woops, that was supposed to be for Nikola.

    • shocking, isn’t it. Not. But the fact that ES is considered for a traitor rather than a hero was a bit of surprise to me. But it makes sense. V.I.Lenin once said: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” The latter is definitely valid for current times.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        As soon as I found that ES was cia pre nsa was enough for me……and then adding the media’s push of martyrdom of ES. Russia to extradite?

    • Been waiting for someone to comment on FB or related.
      Have some acquaintences that share clips. One friend who spends his entire evening on his ipad…
      A lot of the stuff they watch is bad taste. And then you get to people who kill other people, film it and then share it.
      We’re at the pub and Ralph is passing his phone around. Told me what’s on it, a man being cut up and beaten by the limbs they take off him… nah, don’t want to see I say (can’t be unseen)…. That messenger, the app your mate’s using? Yes, he says.
      Just shocked I guess that a company can be aiding and abetting such stuff. And shocked that they don’t have to hide their predilection like rock spiders as it should be illegal

      • interested partyMEMBER

        “Just shocked I guess that a company can be aiding and abetting such stuff”

        How about FB being allowed to display stuff….even encouraged maybe…….to aid the shaping of societies fears and needs. Psychological manipulation writ large. Part of the MIC playbook. Need more war… to get the public to agree?

        FB was spawned out of DARPA…. look up lifelog. Darpa is a suspect outfit imho. Several people crossed over to FB from darpa on inception to “help” ….

    • Honestly, I have no time for modern builds. When I see crap like that it just reaffirms why. The mud brick homes I’ve seen over the last few years have been really solid looking. No cracks in walls, no moisture problems. Just solid quality work.

      I offered $967k for this 1, but no garage. So wasn’t willing to go higher.

      This modern house was done by a builder (for himself) and the quality was really high. So much so my mum was trying to convince me to buy it.

      The muddy I just missed out on.

      I’m actually contemplating doing my own mudbrick construction now, buying the land and just going for it. Take a year off work (or work 2-3 days) and spend 3-4 days a week doing my own building. My uncle is a bricklayer/builder, my aunt interior designer, I’m young fit and able bodied. It’s not rocket surgery to do this stuff..

      Reusa would definitely disapprove of this..

      • I’m following your house hunting as we are in a similar boat, I’m thinking of building a house from scratch too. have you heard of hempcrete?

      • Yes indeed I have, looks like it’s fireproof also! Which would be useful in bushfire zones. Seems to be good stuff.


        We looked at straw bale in WA. They looked fantastic. They had workshops where you helped build a house and learned then after a couple it was your turn and 15 or so people would come to your house and build yours , a great idea and it would be done in a week not months, most of the work was just basic labour so not much skill needed

      • Cool. I noticed around Kinglake a few eco-friendly builds going on.

        I’m really intrigued by the idea and concepts. I found a website the other day from someone who managed to build a Mudbrick home in Victoria for a song. Can’t find it now.

        But I’m thinking find a good parcel of land somewhere, buy a tiny home to live in (on a trailer), then build my garage / workshop. Move the cars in, then start on the house itself.

      • The only thing that turns me off about mudbrick, is it is really labor intensive.the wife doesn’t like the look of it either. It was great in its day but strawbale and hempcrete are miles ahead and more advanced. We looked into earthships too but they are like dugouts in the side of a hill and a bit hippie dippy and the roofs are a worry.

      • I actually love the look of Mudbrick homes, makes me feel at peace and comfortable. Granted not all give off the warm feel and they can feel a little dark inside. I just love the natural building materials. The other options look good also, but the more I read about it the more I like it. I’m glad to hear some don’t like them though. Less competition. 🙂

      • I personally don’t think they look to bad, and you can colour the bricks lighter, it’s the missus who needs convincing….no chance. Re what you were saying about living in a van and building, all the van sales lots I see are chock a block they must be suffering too, I renovated our fith wheel and have been travelling for years, I would like to get an old Aussie van and do it up next, they are rock solid.

      • MsSolarFelineAU what a beautiful place! Hemp is the new wave of the future…I love it! (Especially eating and smoking it 😉

      • Rammed earth is probably better. And mud brick is great up to about 30-40 years – then it all falls apart in the space of about 5 – its fast, disastrous and unstoppable.

        Mud brick is a 3rd world / environmentally “sustainable” medium for a very good reason.

      • The one drawback is that hempcrete takes a long time to cure, so is not good to use for load bearing walls. To make up for this, companies started making hempcrete bricks. There are quite a few companies that make hempcrete bricks. They manufacture them in a way that it takes a lot less time to cure than just putting the slurry into the wall cavity. There are various ways they are made, some put the slurry into wooden forms and left to dry, some are pressed in machines some forming a brick, then left to cure. Some companies put supporting structures such as 2×2’s in them so you can use them for load bearing walls immediately. After they are suitably cured, they are able to be stacked just like normal bricks although they are usually a few inches thicker than regular cinderblocks they are a lot lighter. With these bricks, the need for a wooden frame is practically zero, and since they eventually turn to petrified rock they will last for hundreds of years.

      • they say you only build once, Gavin. I’m proof of that. Find one where all the work is already done, bro. You know it and the recent price falls means it’s a good time for you to get an offer accepted. Don’t be too greedy or you will continue to miss out.

    • constant gardener

      I am currently building my 2nd 10-star house as an owner builder. The first one sold within 12 hrs of listing going live in Dec. my suggestion is don’t use fancy green building materials as you’ll be paying through the nose, not just for the materials but also for engineering, trades downstream, finding experienced labour, council approval harder. Just get the design right. Happy to share my design.

  2. At a major Sydney shopping centre for late night shopping. It’s so dead, but nowhere more dead than David Jones, Myer and Target.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Why would people be out in this weather
      Plus “gorillaz feel good inc” is on rage

    • Greg Jericho was not well served by the sub-editors as that head line was quite misleading.

      He acknowledged that population growth had a role just not as significant as the bubble blowing interest rate cuts of the RBA (which oddly are still endorsed by MB albeit with the excuse that macropru if implemented (it will not) make them legit).

      Importantly Jericho also acknowledged the importance of vacancy rates on rents and that rapid population growth does push up rents.

      Jericho should acknowledge that low vacancy rates and firm rents are an important element of the spruiker BS and that means that population growth is important to the impact of low interest rates.

      Perth is a good example of what happens when you have low interest rates but soft population growth and healthy residential vacancy rates.

      Low interest rates AND falling house prices.