Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are doing well following the solid Wall Street lead with the USD still looking weak heading into tonights CPI print. The Australian dollar has continued its bounce off the 70 cent level while Yen has sold off giving Japanese stocks a small boost to start the week.

The Shanghai Composite is putting on the runs to be well over 3000 points again, currently up 1.7% and looking a lot better after its weak finish last week. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is doing well too, up 1.5% to 28919 points, continuing its bounce off trailing ATR support on the daily chart. The next level to beat is the former daily highs above 29000 proper:

US and Eurostoxx futures are broadly up as hope breeds over the Brexit deal and further stability from US macro news. The S&P 500 four hourly chart is now back in the  zone following last week’s dip but can it maintain it as momentum remains only slightly overbought:

Japanese stock markets have continued their recovery due to a weaker Yen and the expanded risk appetite with the Nikkei 225 leaping nearly 2% higher to just over 21530 points, trying to finally break free of its previous breakout point in early February. The USDJPY pair has pushed through the high moving average on the four hourly chart as it tries to get back to the ATR support/resistance key level at the mid 111’s:

The ASX200 is barely up today, unable to make any headway on a positive US lead, closing at 6186 points with a poor reaction to the release of home loan/investment lending numbers. The Australian dollar has continued its bounce but looks to be stalling here above the mid 70s against USD as it remains quite overbought from yesterday’s surge:

The economic calendar continues tonight with a slew of UK based tertiary figures, including manufacturing, but everyone will be awaiting the further reaction to May’s deal with Brussels. In the US its the monthly CPI print that is sure to be a wild catalyst for USD.


    • Ideological Plagiarists get banned … if their is one web site I would like to see go poof for all its BS … ZH would be the one.

  1. Just dropped a mug of peppermint tea on my lap… thank f*ck it wasn’t hot. As such, it just looks like I pissed my pants now… Good thing there was no sugar in it.

  2. haroldusMEMBER

    Just had to post this again

    I find the words extraordinary in the MSM.

    “It’s quite possible many decades in the future if there is a serious war, where this becomes a serious problem for us, people will wonder whether the decision wasn’t just a stupid one, but whether the people doing it hadn’t looked seriously at the concept and laws surrounding treachery.“

    • Haha, that’s the sort of tin foil hat MB speak I’d expect to see in the comments here. Perhaps we’re rubbing off on the MSM these days? Who knows?

      • I’m sure right about now Happy-Clappy Scummo’s feeling a pang of regret for this Captain’s Call. 😛

    • Selling the port was dumb. But what about importing millions of Chinese into the country as tensions escalate? The world over has Chinatowns in cities because they stick together. What are we gonna do with millions of them if a war did actually break out? Internment camps like the americans did with the japanese? Lol, i’d like to see our government organise that!

    • “Nonetheless, the likelihood of a widespread investor exodus is contained.”

      Lol, theres those famous words again!
      Gold is an interesting one with whats going on with the BOE not letting people audit it nor give is back to Venezuela. Maybe all the gold bugs have been right all along, and the fiat pushers have been pushing it down all the time with tricks and lies. I don’t know what to think anymore. The whole world seems to be running amok on financial skullduggery.

    • Jim Rickards has a theory that the IMF will end up buying all toxics assets with printed (SDR) money that never needs to be repaid. MMT for the rich. Skippy will be pleased.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        i reckon I could have a Hunter S Thompson weekend and then sit down and dictate 20 predictions and I’d be hitting at the same strike rate as Rickards

      • It doesn’t matter who said it. It is a theory that the central banks are not the end of the money printing. The system will be reset by the IMF writing off all the toxic debt on their own balance sheet and permanently sweeping under the carpet.

        I have come up with a theory that at some point in future we’ll get legislated wage inflation in a cashless society. CBs will not only have the power to adjust interest rates but also wage inflation. It could end up being total crap, it could end up being true.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        Freddy, so a thousand tards on a thousand type writers come up with a thousand ideas and if one of them is akin to what you’re musing then that’s validation of the idea ?

        “Who said it doesn’t matter” is right up there with “opinions are the same as facts”

      • Lmmaso ….

        Go read some MMT over at NEP or grasp some PK ….

        Nothing of the sort wing nut ideologues ….

        Bunch of neoliberal wankers …

      • Yeah that is my thought, debt levels higher, asset bubbles peaking higher, less headroom to cushion the blow, more global money finding its way into RE. Stock market stoked higher thanks to share buy backs. The only way out this time is a bigger pop/reset..

      • proofreadersMEMBER

        Times up for central bankers. This coming time, it’s the guillotine for them?

    • What I want to know is which fvcking retard at decided that they would start the countdown for the autoplay only after you scroll it off the screen! It’s fvcking infuriating!

      • I want to know why talk of this nature was taboo 24 months ago, now suddenly it’s in vogue and ok? When it’s far too late for those in debt to change course etc..

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        Gav, enough people that matter have had time to see the wind change and then change their financial position in markets (property is illiquid and you don’t want to give it away)

        now that they’re clear the truth can be spoken

      • I expect the smart big money behaves a bit like me (the small tard money) – ie starts off by positioning to defend against an unpleasant event, and then once the position is established, finds themselves cheering on that unpleasant event… if not trying to accelerate it…

        Wait did I just say that out loud?

      • I know I’m certainly doing my bit to accelerate the crash….by posting continuously on anonymous message boards

    • proofreadersMEMBER

      Poor old Josh? May never have heard of that old “chestnut”, that you are judged by the company that you keep?

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Russia has a lot of issues with its portrayal in global media, and many day to day Russian completely avoid international media (on a language basis alone). Even when outfits like the BBC run a Russian Service it makes an interesting contrast, because they tend to carry pieces which are heavily Russian critical.

      The Russian media, on the other hand – and I read large chunks of it most days – often lives in a parallel universe too. It does certainly have a lot of good stuff. But what Russia’s media tend to be very very careful about is the exploration of the one major issue in Russia; the corruption. On almost any day many outlets of the Russian print, internet and broadcast media will have some piece about corruption, but invariably this will be some low level flunky who has been caught out doing something pernicious. More intermittently it will have something about a bigger fish (Oligarchs or minor politicians, officials of State enterprises etc) – and the pieces about Magomedov last year were a good example – but when this happens it usually comes up in the context of an organisational (or inter oligarch) battle of some sort where one organisation (and I have seen it unfold between two state run organisations) decides to spread the dirt about another, and the various pieces of the media pick up one side or the other and the State tends to adopt a tssk tssk approach.

      The problem with US or Brit coverage of things Russian is that it is so hostile it very rarely gives any coverage of the things Russia and Russians do quite well and even more rarely acknowledges (particularly for geopolitical events) if you accept that Russia does carry on some unseemly behaviours at times, Russia is ultimately the one nation on the planet sharing a land border with just about every complete nutter on the Eurasian continent, and that, for reasons good and bad, there are a lot of people in the former Soviet Union for starters (but also even outside this) who do look to Moscow and see Russia as a land of considerable opportunity, and Russian culture also having significance even if they arent Russian, as well as an often begrudging acceptance of other nations nearby that even if the Russians do have their own social issues they can on occasion show a little more finesses in dealing with the locals than, say, the Americans.

      My take is that the Russians wouldnt go so far as to completely block access to the global internet, although they may try and make getting access to local internet far more accessible. Banning it completely would simply create another black economy demand, when what they probably really want to know is who is accessing which news services outside Russia, and who has internet based services (particularly banks) outside Russia too.

      But anything broadcasting or printing anything not quite in line with what VVP likes to see could easily find itself getting a hard time in Russia. It can be that kind of place.

    • A bit of both from what I can see. There is already a low level hybrid war against Russia ongoing and the ability to keep business on-line activities going under full sanctions is a needed civil defence measure. This is of course water on the wheel of those in Russia who want to restrict any opposition activities
      The cyber attack on the power supply of Venezuela is a demonstration of what can happen if you think you live in a free world and don’t prepare for the worst. Your earlier link about Zerohedge and Facebook and host of other censorship activities in the US show that they are preparing as well. The internet will become just another shopping channel.

    • That is absolutely shocking!

      The fake Greens need to improve aged care facilities instead of persisting with mass immigration.

      • You are wrong, clearly locals cannot do aged care properly, so we must import foreign qualified vibrants to do aged care better. Moar 457s !!!

      • Jacob/Gavin

        Nah ! Bupar needs to set up a retirement village in Thailand and move the oldies there; just like the Swiss have done.

        Benefits for all and sundry, shareholders, clients, Thailand, less 457’s and the children of the facility who will travel to Thailand on vacation.

      • Is that to take advantage of the Youth in Asia? Get it? Thank you than you I’m here all week. Try the veal.

      • But what about the new Chinese very large retirement complex to be built at Swansea in Tassie. Perhaps it will be declared a Special Zone.

    • We shopped there for the old man. Glad he’s in a different town, this is unforgivable – but not unexpected! The government may well expect higher standards that were more of a norm once, but they’ve stripped a bucket load of money out of the whole system in the last couple of years. The reaction of homes is to cut staff to make ends meet & they’re spread dangerously thin, just like Hospitals everywhere. The nurses I know in the home & the hospital talk of low morale, high turnover, bullying, overworked, spread too thin & exhausted. Bottom line – no one wants to be there. As professional as most try to be, there’s only so much distraction/stress one can cope with before their work suffers. They now also end up filling out 4hrs of paperwork for their 8hr shift having even less time to attend the residents, whereas they used to give most of their hours to the actual core job at hand.

      In this valley only 10% can put up a deposit for the plentiful private beds (was ~$300-$500k Bupa were dearer than some & cheaper than others). They forfeit their pension & interest on deposit for the privilege of not being turfed out – otherwise they eat the same etc. The other 90% put in for a hardship grant(?) to get a shot at the 10% of publicly allocated beds (inverted proportioning), but it’s wherever the government decides to put them & it’s not always in their home town where their relies are. It could be a town an hour away or one in Goulburn.

      They have a fair smattering of imports who are spoken highly of & needless to say they rely heavily on volunteers to subsidize with time wherever they can be plugged in. The LNP’s ‘race to the bottom dollar’ actions need thorough scrutinizing in the commission too! I’m not convinced the maggots are just in this blokes head.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Isn’t the FAA allowing them to fly? It would be interesting to see the behind the scenes pressure being put on aviation authorities by manufacturers and airlines.

      Also, discussing this at work this morning someone casually mentioned it was the same plane that went down. One wizard took it quite literally and was amazed that they could fix it after the first crash.

      • You beat me to it by minutes..

        As to your second comment, jesus… Pretty special that one!

      • Virgin Australia has a few Max 737 on order for delivery late 2019.

        CEO must step up and seek a better deal or cancel order……hahaha.

        In reality, business as usual and Virgin shares stuck at 20 cents and still majority foreign owned.

        Branson walked away with millions as he coned Beatty and the dumb Aussie public/investors.

    • Interestingly the FAA aren’t grounding it. It may come out in the wash that the FAA is partly responsible for this with approving the cert for the MAX. Have to wonder how much political interference goes on these days with the two behemoths of Boeing and Airbus competing in this space. It’s very big business, especially these days with how much everyone is flying.

    • truthisfashionable

      “The reasons for failing, 62 per cent is poor performance, 50 per cent is absence, 25 per cent is lateness and 30 per cent is gross misconduct”

      Those damn millennials and their 152% of reasons!

      Anecdotally, millennials seem more willing to use the probation period to test out the role and company and walk away if either were misrepresented in the interviews. I suggest this is how it should be.

    • I have to say, difficult to feel sorry for the family here. Crying poor. Yet they didn’t know who owned it? But odd, of course the real estate agents must be in on something here.

      I think what I find even more shocking is the fact the house is valued at $1.7m.

    • Only 1/3 through. This one is good. John is throwing punches which I wholeheartedly agree with. The fvckers in charge need to take responsibility and face jail for their negligence is ruining the economy.

  3. Thank goat that finally neoliberal libertarian is getting its day of reckoning …. you all may self immolate now in protest to show your expression of free will as you die …