Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are mixed following the disappointing NFP print on Friday night, although it seems risk off has been priced in by most markets as the USD takes a breather. The Australian dollar has bounced off the 70 cent level while Yen has sold off giving Japanese stocks a small boost to start the week.

The Shanghai Composite is back over 3000 points again, currently up 1% and looking a lot better after its weak finish last week. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is doing well too, up 0.7% to 28422 points, bouncing off trailing ATR support on the daily chart. The uptrend is over, but the dip here has not followed through, so watch for signs of a recovery above the high moving average:

US and Eurostoxx futures are broadly up as the mild volatility from Friday’s limp NFP print isn’t translated over the weekend to anything ominous. The S&P 500 four hourly chart is instead looking ripe to bounce here back up to trailing ATR resistance to 2770 points after it tests and firms up monthly support at 2630 points below:

Japanese stock markets have recovered somewhat due to a weaker Yen, with the Nikkei 225 currently up 0.6% to just over 21100 points, trying to hold on to its previous breakout point in early February. The USDJPY pair is has pushed through the 111 handle and is set to test the Thursday/Friday session highs here, so I’m watching for a follow through above to the 111.30 level as weekly support remains respected:

The ASX200 was the worst today, with a very late rally unable to close a big gap this morning, down 0.3% to remain below the 6200 point level. The Australian dollar has bounced firmly off the 70 handle after previously rejecting weekly support at 70.60 – this is still setting up for longer term falls but the inevitable short covering exercise may be afoot. My long term target remains below at 63 cents:

The economic calendar starts the week with two important releases to keep an eye on, first the German trade figures for January, then US advanced retail sales number print for the same month.


  1. Seems the Overton window is shifting ….

    Published Friday in the main newspaper in Brazil, (MIT) economist and former head of the Brazilian Central Bank says macro is in crisis and is being replaced by MMT.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Good to see you didn’t go for the obvious shot at St Mal only getting onto the money ladder because of his parents’ money and connections.

      Fraser was wrong. Life was meant to be easy if you’re born into the right family.

    • Third Way politicians pointing fingers ….

      Hint neoliberalism is the enviroment that created the political swamp, hence banging on about the operatives responding to their environmental conditioning is post facto.

  2. Mining BoganMEMBER

    The #MeToo post. Who complained, Lisa or Julia?

    Can’t be Scummo. Reckon even his kids would call him that.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Hmmm…new evidence points to Lisa.

      Meh, she thinks we’re all racialists anyway. 5…4…3…

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Thanks for that link.
      Opened it up whilst waiting for the Boys Jujitsu to finnish and got a nasty look from one of the mums waiting to pick up her kid.
      Made me feel like a grub.

    • Like some other bands we could all name, the Go-Betweens were greater as a whole than the sum of their parts might suggest.
      Most Go-Betweens albums walked a narrow balance between too-difficult/dissonant (RF written songs) and too saccharin (GM written songs). The balance was usually achieved and it made their work great.
      Nevertheless, RF is a pretty witty guy, so long as you like your wit witheringly dry.