Macro Afternoon

The big fall in Chinese trade for February has seen a big slump on stock markets across Asia, not helped by the poor showing on transatlantic markets as the ECB plays catchup to the prospect of a Euro-wide recession. Yen has surged against the USD on the safe haven bid, while the Aussie dollar is barely clinging on just above 70 cents. A wonderful session before the NFP print tonight!

The Shanghai Composite has been smacked down, losing nearly 3% going into the close, just clinging on above 3000 points and putting a big damper on this weeks outsized returns. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is off by more than 1.5%, currently at 28347 points, still unable to make any headway as 29000 points turns into very firm resistance and price rolls over, heading towards ATR support at below 28000:

US and Eurostoxx futures are falling again as volatility reigns with tonights NFP print not something to look forward to for most traders. The S&P 500 four hourly chart looks extremely ominous as it craters and sets up for a move back down to monthly support at 2630 points or so:

Japanese stock markets dived because of a strong upside move in Yen as risk abandoned all hope for the weekend, with the Nikkei 225 currently down nearly 2% to just over 21000 points, capping off a very bad week, now back to its previous breakout level at 21000 points in early February. The USDJPY pair is now dicing with the 111 handle after falling below ATR support at 111.50 on a strong safe haven bid, with the 110 handle the next target at weekly support:

The ASX200 is still the best achiever, only losing about 0.9% to pullback to the 6200 point level, as it still remains a standout in terms of risk appetite. The Australian dollar is dicing with the 70 handle as shorts pile in on the risk-off trade, having rejected what was weekly support at 70.60 and now ready to swing into gear for longer term falls – my target is 63 cents:

The economic calendar will be dominated tonight by the February US unempoyment print – non farm payrolls of NFP – which will set the risk scene for the rest of March.


      • The Wealth and Poverty of Nations

        The economic implications of gender discrimination are most serious. To deny women is to deprive a country of labor​ and talent, but — even worse — to undermine the drive to achievement of boys and men. One cannot rear young people in such wise that half of them think themselves superior by biology, without dulling ambition and devaluing accomplishment … To be sure, any society will have its achievers no matter what, if only because it has its own division of tasks and spoils. But it cannot compete with other societies that ask performance from the full pool of talent.

        In general, the best clue to a nation’s growth and development potential is the status and role of women. – David Landes

      • I agree with Morrison on this, of course trust the turkeys in the media to twist his words. Lots of studies are showing young men and boys falling behind in school, behind women in particular? We have to ask why? I’m all for equality, not for 3rd wave feminism that seeks to demonise men.

        At work today there was a newsletter, women in tech… celebrating women for being women.. I mean honestly? It’s a bit like gay people always having to have a special day or celebrate being gay… Sure if that’s your thing fine. But I don’t run around yelling to the world how damn straight I am…

        My sister works as an Engineer and she hates all this special attention for being a woman in an Engineering field. She gets all these awards and accolades and says it’s all BS. I agree with her, doesn’t stop me winding her up about participation trophies lol..

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        ^^ We need a blokes day where we’re supplied with booze, blow and boobies while we watch the boot on the box.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        My sister works as an Engineer and she hates all this special attention for being a woman in an Engineering field. She gets all these awards and accolades and says it’s all BS. I agree with her, doesn’t stop me winding her up about participation trophies lol..

        My wife is an Engineer and also has little time for the HR baggage that goes along with it.

        On the flipside, she’s under no illusions about the boys club and its consequences, which is the thing Scomo, et al. are implicitly trying to deny exists.

      • Same goes for my wife Smithy, loathes that kinda PR, yet history is clear on the locker room pack or rat pack.

  1. So… Is the China data the trade war kicking in?

    Can we expect other low-end trinket making countries to be making bank?

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Seen this before ….have a ripping business in USA or Germany …….using pretty neat machines made in USA or Germany ….the Machine makers in USA or Germany want to expand so they sell their machines to China who combine with low cost labour …………..suddenly……ripping business in USA and Germany in trouble and on the way out …….as Skip would say … market thingy ………
        ……perhaps we need to get back to protecting state and corporate secrets …a Trump thingy ….heaven forbid .

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        I expect China to have the South China Sea ( temporarily) ……..but a lot of the other claimants to do very nicely selling trinkets to the USA .
        ……..remember many years ago visiting Mount Vernon …..and those most gracious Virginia lady custodians being a tad embarrassed by all the gift shop stuff being made in CHINA CHINA CHINA ……..well perhaps Vietnam or the Phillipines will now get a look in to the plastic George Washington coffee mugs ……..that would be
        nice for a more balanced word trade …….yeah but no but !

  2. From Warren Mosler…

    “Several years ago I had a meeting with Senator Tom Daschle and then Asst. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. I had been discussing these innocent frauds with the Senator, and explaining how they were working against the well being of those who voted for him. So he set up this meeting with the Asst. Treasury Secretary who was also a former Harvard economics professor and had two uncles who had won Nobel prizes in economics, to get his response and hopefully confirm what I was saying.

    I opened with a question: “Larry, what’s wrong with the budget deficit?”

    To which he replied: “It takes away savings that could be used for investment”.

    To which I replied: “No it doesn’t, all Treasury securities do is offset operating factors at the Fed. It has nothing to do with savings and investment”.

    To which he replied: “Well, I really don’t understand reserve accounting so I can’t discuss it at that level”.

    Senator Daschle was looking at all this in disbelief. The Harvard professor of economics Asst. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers didn’t understand reserve accounting? Sad but true.”

    Rim shot ….

    • Why does he need to understand reserve accounting?
      He’s an economist not a back office accountant working at a CB.

    • and that just shows how clueless Mosler is that he thinks a macroeconomic question like the size of the budget deficit can be framed in terms of reserve accounting.

    • Because one thing sets the stage for everything else ….

      It might have helped Larry with the Harvard endowment he almost burnt down [IR swaps] or his part in the Chicago stooges methodology wrt Born. Remember they used the rational agent economic model to dismiss her experiance and superior knowlage.

      Then some wonder about terms like failing upwards or Flexian ….

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    Apparently, I work in a building with flammable cladding.

    But I don’t need to worry as we’ve been told it’s very low risk. So that’s alright then.

    It’s not a tower, and the place was referbed a DECADE ago. Houston, we have a problem.

    • There are so many leeches attached to the whole real estate complex that the country is going to stink as they fall off and rot in the streets as the bubble implodes.

      • “There are so many leeches attached to the whole real estate complex”

        Like the market – ????

  4. Poo struggling to hold on around 70,04 Be interesting what the euro open does. Hit it below 70 would be a nice weekend bonus.

    • Could be although sometimes things go very quiet in the lead up to an NFP print.

  5. Half way through packing up the house for the move… •annoyed grunt•. At least disconnecting the internets went smooth. It will be a pity though, I quite liked the FTTH.

    Now for the rest of that sh•te.

    Also one week left at work. Guys say already they’re missing me.. awww! No! Not coming back! Bad employee! 🤣

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Had to downgrade your rental yeah? Got rent assistance? I don’t take your type unless there’s extra payment involved as compensation for the possibility that you’ll be too povvo to pay.

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    The MSM “news “ tonight full of poor market for real estate stories ……..the end line is always ….”it’s the problem of lending “…..
    ….well FMD …….so people can’t borrow money they can’t pay back to buy crap concrete they could never afford ………..tough cheddar developers ( destructors ) ….suck it up …..

    • Com Bank, as of they weren’t. Dress it up all you like with grovelling apologies, culture awareness etc but it’s still a turd.