Macro Afternoon

A mixed day here in Asia as Japanese stocks take a dive while locally, the ASX200 is supported by the almost baked in rate cuts coming for the Australian dollar as the GDP print comes in lower than expected.

The Shanghai Composite is the standout, up 1% going into the close and remaining well above 3000 points at 3083. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is up slightly, about 0.2% to get just over 29000 points as it still tries to pull itself out of a near week long malaise after rising too fast from its recent trend line:

US and Eurostoxx futures are falling as caution turns to concern with the S&P 500 four hourly chart looking like reverting below last week’s session lows at 2780 points, as the 2800 point level remains too far a stretch and will act again as staunch resistance tonight:

Japanese stock markets were the worst performers again as Yen strengthened and risk took a holiday, with the Nikkei 225 currently down nearly 0.7% to around 21570 points, almost making a new weekly low as a result as it continues to align with other risk markets. The USDJPY pair is slipping after failing to find strength overnight, rejecting overhead resistance at the 112 handle – watch the low moving average carefully tonight:

The ASX200 has surged over 0.6% on the back of the lower Australian dollar following the GDP print, currently just short of the 6240 point level. The Australian dollar was already on a tear down before the GDP print, but really gathered pace as the release came out, taking out a key weekly support level at 70.60 – this is ominous indeed as the rate cut forecasts pile in:

The economic calendar is a bit lighter on tonight with the Canadian central bank decision the only release of note, plus the latest DOE oil inventory report.

Comments

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Bowen apparently quipped: “I’m no Keatings, but, I think it’s the recession we’re going to have to have had.” [sic].

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Which reminds me, if there’s only one thing more fun than kicking the Libs while in govt, it’s kicking Labor’s economic management credentials – while they’re in government…

      Not too long to wait now.

    • Bowen’s weak for letting Morriscum and Frydenfvck talk Australia into a recession and not stopping them thereby depriving Brown of claiming the recession as his own. Selfish bastard.

    • Nah… actual reduction in personal wealth for most people is real…via equity getting demolished by an unstoppable housing crash.

      Timberrrrr

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Fortunately, most Australians are insulated from this automatic downgrade effect on their personal net-wealth via house prices crashing thanks entirely to successive government and RBA policy. As, these days, most Australia​ns still can’t afford to buy one.

        This blog can now close. Mission accomplished (once the above gets shared and retweeted).

      • Thanks Gav. Not exactly good news Gav but matches my analysis that the bottom end in CBR is holding up / growing whereas the top end is crumbling. The number of loans for FHBs is up sharply but the average amount is only up 2%. So a lot more loans but all “small” ones.

        Wish we had printed negative GDP today though. Confidence and sentiment here needs a bona fide kick in the guts and “halfway to a recession” would have helped with that!

      • Same thing in other states just as investors left FHB jumped in but it does off within 6 months.

      • Gav I sincerely hope so but I note the ACT has massive vibrant population growth and as of next July some very very generous stamp duty concessions – ie no SD at all if your combined income is under $160K (so I don’t get it but they all will). As usual the ACT govt just lines up the gifts for apartment developers.

        I am glad I am in the market for a more expensive property than most FHBs or I would be emigrating right now. And I still might.

      • Given the average loan is for about $320k that means that most of the first home buyers are buying apartments or perhaps older townhouses. Even the cheapest detached houses in the ACT are priced out of the reach of people borrowing that sort of money.

      • J BauerMEMBER

        Arrow, was recently in ACT, I was amazed with how vibrant it was. It rivalled Sydney for vibrancy.

        Was also amazed at Gungahlin and the housing developments on the way to bungendore. Houses built right up against each other.

      • Can confirm vibrancy is alive and well in Gungahlin. There was a minor car accident in our quiet side street between an Subcontinent type and a Sudanese African type – all ok which is good. Four short years ago it would have been between a European Australian and an Asian and before that an Australian and a houso even though they apparently don’t drive. Wonder what the next four years will bring?

      • Anthropos metron

        This is huge – as in right now they are talking about removing the rights of companies like Twitter or Facebook to ban people.

        Trump just passed an executive order surrounding this banning any university from censoring conservatives (enforced free speech rules) or risk defunding.

        Its the single biggest issue on a global scale right now – nothing comes close. Its a flat out war between left and right (Brexit, Yellow Vests etc) fighting against neo-liberal neo-conservative faux-left controlled by the established media which is literally banning and censoring any counter points.

        Germany, Italy, United States (via Trump) are all addressing this right now and putting in place laws to govern how online and tech companies approach free speech.

        It even impacts macrobusiness.com.au – install the dissenter app in your browser or smart phone – gab – and circumvent the “BAN HAMMER”.

        https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/dissenter-extension/gdmekeodmghijamlkjcfpigdcdmcllbo

        Its happening everywhere.

      • Never was any such thing as “free” [tm] speech… you had rights of speech … under the laws of state.

      • Yet censorship is what law is about e.g. what you can and can not do ….

        I think some need to read the author that basically set the stage for the debate by categorizing the whole thing, it is the back drop to the whole debate, kinda important to establish some sort of base line rather than what rolls around in some peoples heads …. Kill all the >insert< and if taken to task waffle on about freedoms …. you know the whole positive – negative freedom thingy ….

      • interested party

        All social media outfits are complicit.
        Fake news filter extensions now available for browsers, all sorts of bullshlt.

        Narrative management and control.

    • Pretty decent place. If I inherited that I’d keep it.

      Best bit though is the lesson in what happens to boomers who overprice something. Ended up accepting almost 50% less than his original excessive price.

      • Gav sometimes I amuse myself wondering what I’d buy if I won one of those $50m powerball jackpots. This one would definitely make the short list. (Then once the family home is sorted, just need a pad in Barcelona and maybe something somewhere on a wild windy remote coastline say W Tassie or Southern WA. That’d do. I’m not greedy. )

      • @Arrow, I’d buy back my Grand Parents old factory.
        https://www.realestate.com.au/property/412-430-city-rd-southbank-vic-3006
        I still have fond memories as a kid playing in the factory. My mum now lives in my grandfathers old shop front conversion in South Melbourne which is around the corner. I’d have a huge / garage workshop area. I’d convert a large portion of it into my dwelling and maybe create a couple of other smaller dwellings for my family to live/stay in if they wished.

        After that I’d probably donate a bunch to the disenfranchised and make a few smaller investments and look at getting involved with startup’s my own business etc.. ahh to win Lotto lol

      • Yep. That sounds good. The $50m game is fun because if you do it right, you can be generous and also do a few crazy things and you still don’t need to ever work again (you can – you just don’t need the money). Not like regular lotto – for now, if you’re lucky you can just about buy a normal house with it!

      • I never thought I would see you engage in groundless up likes …

        Very – good – answer – is not a logical statement nor does it lend any veracity to Krugman’s views. You also know that is a view that favors the financial markets above all else and that the budget deficit that also happens to feed the savings of the non-government sector to the penny. But yeah lets let reality be dictated by some reductive model that was taken out of context and applied like carried down the mount ….

      • What are your thoughts on the need for marketable national debt and equilibrium or stabilization and how that reflects on the free market [global] outcomes during the period in question.

  1. Well lead story on abc news tonight was a quite comprehensive economic story about our per capita recession. I’m very glad that on this day of per capita recession I’m moving one step closer to finally getting one of my casual jobs made part time (we’ve agreed my roster and now my department can get ‘Talent and Culture’ to work on the contract, so it’s not quite in the bag yet but fingers crossed!). I’ll get a guaranteed 20 hours a week, and paid sick leave, and paid annual leave. I’m so lucky, I don’t think I’ve had any of those benefits for like 15 years. I don’t think the system is supposed to work like this, once you lose something shouldn’t it stay lost from that person forever?

    • Congrats poppy: another step in the transition back to mainstream Oz, you can start talking about sickies and smoko and hols and such. 🙂

      • Thanks! The idea of paid leave is just mind blowing but having a set roster of shifts will be life changing (still have to work one shift on a weekend though). I do feel like I could finally answer that question I used to get asked so often by students “What are the cultural differences between China and Australia” now that I’ve been back two years and working in very Australian workplaces (after a while I had to say I’d been in China too long and I couldn’t honestly answer that question properly).

      • I will consider it. I decided I couldn’t afford it as a casual. I belonged to all the appropriate unions before leaving Australia.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        LOL. I didn’t see this until after I commented EP (see my reply to Popcod below).

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Has HR now morphed into “talent and culture “………perhaps you could don some Mongolian kit and tap dance across the floor …….that should do the trick …..

    • Funny I’ve had those things for 10+ years, yet I never really feel like I’ve taken advantage of them.

      • I’m pretty sure you’d miss them if you didn’t have them. Even to have one week a year of a paid annual leave would be awesome. I haven’t had a holiday in over a year as I’m financially pretending to be in mortgage stress by saving each week what a mortgage stress repayment would be for me, and mortgages need to be repaid while you’re on holidays and I just can’t afford the time off in this scenario. Anyway it’s a useful way to ensure I learn to avoid screwing up my life, but a holiday of even a week would be nice.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Talent and Culture?

      I already hate them without even knowing what they are. Bring back the humble clerk.

      • I know, such a wanker name for HR. So I’m not banking on this 100% until the contract is signed.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Talent and Culture? The complete antithesis of HR. Won’t find any of that in there. I’m reliably informed that there’s not even any biological culture – even bacteria refuse to breed in there. Case in point the ‘first aid officer’ from HR carrying a diary and making notes while obstructing Ambos doing their job all over the news today.

      • Hey … If HR stands for Human Remains – I’m sure TC can be found to stand for something too… say….. Tits and Cvnts?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Well done, Popcod. Well done. Good to see the system working the way it’s supposed to. Great those hours work for you and your employer clearly values you.

      Don’t forget to join your union after your first couple of full paychecks. I rejoined mine in Jan.

      Bloody EP pressure.

    • Hold on, I thought there was a problem with old white male and stale… sooo… where’s the vibrancy? Where’s the curry?

  2. thomickersMEMBER

    hahaha…. who made money off the AUD short on crappy GDP numbers? I certainly did.

    • Gunna, would be interesting to hear updates from your mates in the finance sphere to see if they are changing their minds as to whether they see Oz still as the less risky place. They must be reaching capitulation stage soon, surely.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Unless he actually cut his testicles out of his ball bag and then placed them in the said salsa, then he didn’t placed his testicles in the salsa.
      The article and police should have stated it was his Scrotum (Ball bag) placed in the salsa.

      Its like saying he placed his Urethra in the hot apple pie.

    • While he’s still balls deep in the Labor Party.

      He’s good on social stuff that isn’t important. When he starts talking politics he’s just another tribalist. Let’s see if he goes as hard on Chris Bowen and the rest when it all goes south.

      • Yeah we will have to wait and see..he does dig at Labor also. But right not the Libs are the ones doing the most crap. So it’s fair to single them out.

  3. https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/thread/2787064

    This schmuck gets pre-approval for a 1.8m loan at 4.11% (LVR 74%), then the credit union classifies it as commercial and jacks up the interest rate to 7.7%. Wants to take it to court but has started the demolition before even signing the paperwork…

    Unfortunately the CEO caves in. Boo!

  4. rj2k000MEMBER

    Australia’s economy just entered recession on a per capita basis
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/gdp-q4-2018/10874592

    Australia’s GDP shows we’re in a type of ‘recession’ and car dealers are bearing the brunt
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/car-dealers-bearing-the-brunt-of-australian-economic-slowdown/10875580

    Lower house prices not translating into more affordable housing, as loans become harder to get
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/housing-affordability-worsens-despite-house-prices-falling/10874978

    Federal Treasury scolds Coalition for exaggerating impact of Labor’s proposed negative gearing overhaul
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/federal-treasury-scolds-coalition-labor-negative-gearing-changes/10873514

    • Lower house prices not translating into more affordable housing, as loans become harder to get

      Should read, Vendors still hanging out for yesterday’s prices, not willing to meet the market based on the kind of money people should be able to borrow, not were able to borrow without lending standards..

      As soon as vendors realise they won’t get those prices without fraud and Chinese money, the better.

  5. rj2k000MEMBER

    Reserve Bank says population growth, slow building to blame for property boom and bust
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/rba-says-population-growth-to-blame-for-property-boom-and-bust/10874502

    Opal capital Coober Pedy ‘on knife-edge’ as desert town faces big water problem
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/coober-pedy-water-supply-concerns-opal-capital/10867894

    Blowing the whistle on the Australian Taxation Office could land this man in jail
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/ato-whistleblower-faces-161-years-prison-possibility/10872350

    Trying to arrange in-home aged care like ‘going to war’, new report finds
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/at-home-aged-care-report-finds-fee-gouging/10871152

  6. rj2k000MEMBER

    ‘Self-destructive’ man who pushed car in front of Adelaide train during four-day drug binge is jailed
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/man-sentenced-for-pushing-car-in-front-of-train-on-drug-bender/10874572

    Mars InSight lander pauses drilling due to rocks beneath planet’s surface, NASA says
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/mars-insight-lander-pauses-drilling-due-to-rocks-nasa-says/10876374

    Scrub python spotted trying to devour a wallaby on Mission Beach property
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/giant-scrub-python-spotted-devouring-wallaby-in-queensland/10875138

    • I’m quite shocked how many views Martin is getting. Seems over 3000 consistently only a day or so after publishing. For someone talking about economics, I find it astonishing!

      It’s also amazing how much content he is putting out. He must be working like a demon.

      • rj2k000MEMBER

        The Money GPS guy is quite impressive in output too, considering the data researched.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Doesn’t he just copy a chunk of something someone else has written, stick a headline on it, and a link to it, and then say how bad a state the Australian economy is in at the bottom of it (remembering to restrict it to dues paying members only most times)?

        Oops. Wrong site.

      • TTW that sounds appealing! I’d pay for that.

        As long as there are some tards around to keep the windows polished.

    • Holy sh1t, only a minute into that and the stupid b1tch states the exact opposite of what is true when she wants to upgrade. My god we are doomed.

      Oh and then very soon comes the true meaning of the segment. It’s the banks not doling out enough cash. We as a country are worse than heroin addicts, totally and utterly hooked on debt.

      My god, they are scraping the bottom of the barrel with the “Sterns”

  7. “I’d like to see Jimmy go and get 600 and then whether he wants to try and knock off one of these dodgy spinners that are still at the top of the tree.”

    Glenn McGrath wants James Anderson, who crossed his tally of 563 Test wickets, to aim higher

    • Alice doesn’t need to import vibrancy, they have their own local brand. Once saw a local lass take a twinkle in the todd mall. Only other place i’d seen such local vibrancy was another local lass doing the same in the median strip in the middle of Katherine. Both occasions middle of the day. No. Fvcks. Given.
      Mate I worked with seen similar fornicating vibrancy in the middle of Darwin. Except it apparently wasn’t consensual. Cops (supposedly) waited for the fire brigade to turn up and hose him off like a dog.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      About ten years ago I rolled out of the Alice Springs airport and was mightily surprised to see every taxi accompanied by a subcontinent vibrant driver. Even in The Alice I thought.

      Some say they come as a standard option.

  8. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Hmmm…the church don’t seem to be happy that they can’t be trusted.

    “A bishop has written to the director of a Catholic Schools Office that oversees 24 schools asking that principals be directed to stop asking priests for their working-with-children checks.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/06/armidale-bishop-directs-catholic-schools-to-stop-asking-priests-for-working-with-children-checks

    My suggestion is that every priest should be accompanied by a responsible adult. A strong, powerful responsible adult. Not just in schools either.

  9. OH MY FVCKING GOD

    The Kouk has gone full retard with this one. Just buy buy buy you lemmings!!!!

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-need-buy-house-now-003308014.html

    It would be a great shame if the current weakness in house prices does not see those groups previously frozen out of the housing market step up and buy a house to live in.

    Whether it is in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Darwin, Canberra, Brisbane, Adelaide or regional Australia, housing affordability is improving rapidly with prices generally lower, mortgage interest rates remarkably low and competitive, and wages growth edging up in a steady if not spectacular way.

    Sure, saving that deposit for a house is still hard and the banks and other financial institutions are making it a bit more difficult to get the loan you need to buy your house.

    But for many reasons, getting into the housing market now or in the next 12 months to buy your house to live in will set you on course for a life of fulfilment and financial security.

    More like a life of austerity and misery. Can’t this fvcking despicable cvnt be sued for spouting drivel like this?

    • It would be a great shame if the current weakness in house prices does not see those groups previously frozen out of the housing market step up and buy a house to live in.

      It would be a great shame… awww, too bad, so sad!

  10. Deebing Heights protests.
    Ipswich rural area / high density development on suspected aboriginal mass graves. Been brewing for years.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-31/deebing-creek-mission-protest-to-halt-housing-development/10763670

    Planned 10 x increase of Deebing Heights population.

    2,000 people to 25,000 is the plan. Yep.
    (Wikipedia, so it must be true 🙂 “Deebing Heights development is planned over the entire suburb, it has a projected population of 25,000 people by 2020”

    “was larger block sizes, but now subsequent developments in Deebing Heights, have seen block allotments shrink in size and only accommodate houses of a modest size”

    Ipswich is the ‘new Parramatta’.
    So will Deebing Heights be the new Bangladeshi Glenfield or Nepalese Westmead, or Campbelltown or Harris Park as we see in Sydney?

    These aboriginal activists & supporters are protesting the development on their ‘sacred sites’, mass graves & ‘their land’.

    Fair enough.

    But why aren’t they protesting the real underlying driver of this development?

    And isn’t that the QLD Government/ Ipswich council, local business employers & the ‘Education industry’ all driving the deliberate creation of a semi rural area satellite high density migrant enclave.

    Two apparent drivers….
    1. Massive taxpayer funded state & local business services development ‘make work jobs’ in Ipswich
    2. And not far away.. the USQ Ipswich & Springfield campuses.

    2017 – Ipswich’s international education market grew by 39.2 per cent with most of Ipswich’s international student enrolments coming from China and India.
    Nearly 40% growth.
    Yep. USQ even got a government grant to boost their third world agent procurer advertising, offshore collector intakes.

    Example:
    “IT student Ariful Hasan just arrived from Bangladesh, USQ welcomes students from all over the world!”

    USQ international enrolments projected to 4000 students across the university for 2017, Mr Hasan is one of more than 600 new overseas students to commence study at USQ this semester.”

    Why exactly would Mr Hasan come to Australia to study IT? It’s free in Bangladesh in their government high schools & intermediate college level for a $1.50 a week fee & even free online for more advanced training. All in English, most of it stolen or licence keys broken.
    The Internet there is a fraction of cost here. There is a thriving industry and much bigger market in IT services (onshore or offshore) for any Bangladeshi student to learn faster and far more comprehensively than in Australia.

    If Ariful Hasan or those other USQ 4,000 Chinese or Indian & other foreign students (and on a national ratio say additional 800 or so ‘partners’ on secondary visas not enrolled but with full work rights)…

    If they all had no work rights & had to pay all their fees up front, plus have their funds & work / income activity checked each month by the local police chief (eg China or Bangladesh) – would they be here?

    Probably not.

    Maybe that’s what the indigenous activists should be protesting about.

    The migrant intake seeking low cost high density housing near a visa alibi and government funded make work jobs they can work illegally in – because that’s a root cause driver & underlying nutrient in why this development is being built.

    Not the developers who are just cashing in to that need.

    -/-

    They need to take care when they put the swimming pools in.

    Poltergeist movie – pool scene.
    https://youtu.be/pN30QHVm4-0

    (Real skeletons apparently)