Via Capital Economics:
• The February trade data are downbeat, even accounting for seasonal distortions. Tariffs are weighing on shipments to the US. But broader weakness in global demand means that, even if Trump and Xi finalise a trade deal soon, the outlook for exports remains gloomy.
• Export growth dropped back from +9.1% y/y in January to -20.7% in US dollar terms last month (the Bloomberg median was +1.4%, our forecast was -10.0%). Import growth also slowed from -1.5% y/y to – 5.2% (Bloomberg +0.5%, CE -2.0%).
