Over the weekend Chinese house prices were out for February and showed ongoing slowing with month on month prices up 0.5% versus 10.4% year on year:
Clearly year on year is about to peak as well. Breadth of gains is also deteriorating slowly with 50/20 split on prices rises and falls/stable across cities:
First tier cities have accelerated again but lower tiers are about toll over:
The credit easing we’ve seen to date has so far NOT reached households and mortgage growth is still easing:
I remain concerned that house prices will not turn up without actual cash rate cuts which remain difficult owing to the yuan/forex reserves/trade war nexus.
There’s more slowing ahead for house prices, sales and starts before any turn:
Meanwhile, iron ore port stocks have remained glued to house prices, reversing recent falls:
Were it not for Vale I would say iron ore is still in trouble.