Bloxo raises hand to run lunatic RBA

Amusing stuff from the next Governor of the lunatic RBA, Bloxo at HSBC:

For the RBA, the numbers surprised to the downside (relative to the forecasts they published on 8 February). The RBA had GDP growth of 2.8% y-o-y — today’s result was 2.3% y-o-y.

  • downside surprises … sharp fall in dwelling investment and the drag from net exports
  • Public demand and business investment surprised to the upside relative to the RBA’s forecasts
  • household consumption growth was broadly in line

For the moment, we expect the RBA to remain focused on the labour market for determining its policy rate setting.

  • If the labour market were to weaken materially the RBA would clearly consider cutting — today’s GDP numbers are unlikely, on their own, to get the RBA to cut.

Our central case is that the RBA’s next move is up, albeit not until mid-2020.

Promotion imminent!

Comments

  1. Calling all those “we need to hold these faulty forecasters to account!” folks. Come and hold Bloxo to account for these interest rate forecasts (& AUD forecasts too?).

    If you’re serious about accountability in forecasting you need to do it when it’s speaking truth to power and wearing the consequences not just grandstanding on easy targets.