APRA investor mortgages converge on zero
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APRA’s monthly banking statistics have nothing but bad news for house price. Here are the year on year growth rates in investor mortgages in the big eight banks:
| ANZ | CBA | MQG | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| Feb-19 | -4.5 | 0.0 | 43.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 0.4 |
| Jan-19 | -4.2 | -0.1 | 44.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7.0 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
| Dec-18 | -3.8 | -0.1 | 44.9 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 6.6 | -1.3 | 0.6 |
| Nov-18 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 44.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 6.9 | -1.8 | 1.0 |
| Oct-18 | -2.8 | -0.9 | 43.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 6.4 | -2.1 | 1.0 |
| Sep-18 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 41.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 5.8 | -2.1 | 1.2 |
| Aug-18 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 37.5 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -4.1 | 1.3 |
| Jul-18 | -1.4 | -1.5 | 29.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 3.7 | -3.2 | 1.4 |
| Jun-18 | -1.2 | -4.2 | 24.4 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 2.8 | -2.1 | 0.8 |
| May-18 | -0.7 | -4.8 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
| Apr-18 | -0.1 | -4.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 1.1 |
| Mar-18 | 0.5 | -4.3 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Feb-18 | 1.4 | -4.0 | -0.7 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 1.7 |
The chart:
Month on month shows there is more slowing ahead:
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| ANZ | CBA | MAC | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| Feb-19 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Jan-19 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Dec-18 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Nov-18 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Oct-18 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Sep-18 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Aug-18 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jul-18 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 3.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun-18 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 14.0 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| May-18 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Apr-18 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -2.8 | 0.0 |
| Mar-18 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Feb-18 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.