ANZ consumer confidence dives on per capita recession

I guess a per capita recession matters after all as ANZ weekly consumer confidence plunges 5%:

“We think the soft GDP report and, perhaps more importantly, the focus on a “per capita recession” were the primary factors in the plunge.”

“This decline could be longer-lasting as it appears to be more related to underlying economic conditions. If it proves to be a sustained decline then it is yet more bad news about a household sector that is already under pressure. No doubt the RBA will take note.”

The index is volatile and is not all that useful but the big moves are usually correlated with the better Westpac monthly index.

Houses and Holes
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  1. Obviously we need fresh, young, optimistic faces from overseas to dilute the local pessimism.

    Is there a KPI that can’t be gamed?

    • Replacing locals on $75k with outsiders on $53k who also send most of their wage back home seems inlitto improve consumption.

      • And now that more and more are getting their shiny Permanent Residency, we are stuck with the loss long-time! Please do the needful and stop the insanity.

      • But Mr Harvey gets all the New Arrivals buying his stuff to set up home for them and their extended families.

  2. 13 hours ago, The Atlantic magazine published a massive article that calls for immigration to be cut!

    Immigrants are expensive to taxpayers because the foreign-born population of the United States is more likely to be poor and stay poor. Even when immigrants themselves do not qualify for a government benefit—typically because they are in the country illegally—their low income ensures that their children do.

    In especially generous states, the cost is much higher still: $2,050 in California; $3,650 in Wisconsin; $5,100 in Minnesota.

    Many Americans feel that the country is falling short of its promises of equal opportunity and equal respect. Levels of immigration that are too high only enhance the difficulty of living up to those promises. Reducing immigration, and selecting immigrants more carefully, will enable the country to more quickly and successfully absorb the people who come here, and to ensure equality of opportunity to both the newly arrived and the long-settled

    So we had Vanity Fair magazine calling for immigration to be slashed and now we have The Atlantic doing the same!

    • We need to scrap free education for the children of temporary visa holders. Just like we get the temporary visa holders to get private health insurance, surely we could do the same with education? Give them the option to a) pay for private education b) pay for public education directly via fees c) pay for public education via a surcharge tax (like Medicare for those that don’t have insurance) if not paying for private education.

      This would take a lot of pressure off State government coffers.

      • That one is up to the states. A few states in AUS have decided to start charging the kids of 457 visa staff for studying in government schools.

        The states should also charge foreigners $40/day for a train ticket.

    • Everyday Australians need to be educated about the net loss that comes from migration. Educate them about reduced real incomes, per capita GDP, productivity declines et al.

    • Mass migration is now becoming a Human Rights issue for Australian born people. Our health, education, social standards are dropping.

  3. “No doubt the RBA will take note.”

    No doubt. Just keep working it into every release until expectation becomes inevitability.

  4. Why can’t the people see how corrupt the political class are? We need immigrants to come here to tend the elderly immigrants whose children won’t look after and so they’re in nursing homes which are probably the most expensive housing on this earth. Yet we have these immigrants because we need youth, who are kept out of employment because of low wage theft from immigrants who are shuffled into the country by immigration agents who short change them and pocket profits and remit them to their home countries, so that the said youth have no employment skills and are therefore unemployable so we need more immigrants to do the work (such as fruit picking) they can’t do because of the scams that go on out in the back blocks because the Border Force a an absolute joke. AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!

    • We offer Permanent Residency like lollies. If were serious about getting quality, then we would only offer PR once someone’s employability and skills have been tested under a temporary visa, plus ensuring there is still currency in what they offer (i.e. do we still have a shortage in that skill-set, or are we right now).

  5. We need to strip all immigration control powers from the federal government – both DHA (Dept of Home Affairs which includes Borders & Immigration) & DFAT, Dept of Foreign Affairs & Trade.

    A Royal Commission forced by the people is the only way to force these changes.

    Australians then need to put immigration/Citizen/PR and non resident visa policy & access settings under the authority of a politically independent & Australian representative controlled authority.

    And the first step is to slash the current PR intake & force exit at least 1.4 million TR migrant guestworkers who should never have been allowed in, and the remaining 1.1 million TR non resident migrant guestworkers have identity, tracking, work & location controls.

    1st March 2019.
    🔹1.9 million PR & Citizen grants in the last decade. 78% of this intake were third world, unskilled, highly dependent.
    Lowering wages, corrupting housing, not assimilating, overloading our health & welfare services. 87% or 1.6 million are highly concentrated in Sydney & Melbourne. We are stuck with these PR & citizen grants and their offspring as our inter-generational burden for decades.

    Then add onto this:
    🔹2.561 million non resident migrant guestworkers in Australia with a 5.7% growth rate in the last year.

    In March 2018 we had 2.431 million Migrant Guestworkers onshore.
    Fact check.

    The March 2018-March 2019 Yearly growth was 5.7% across all visa categories based on the DHA quarterly updates. That was another 130,000 extra TR migrant guestworkers on top of the 190,000 PR intake in the last year.

    🔹 The March 1st 2019 estimate is : 2,561 million non resident TR Migrant Guestworkers.

    And now for the repetition.. 😊

    TR non resident migrant guestworkers concentration.
    🔻Sydney 1.31 million or 1 in 4 people a non resident migrant guestworker.
    🔻Melbourne 1.05 million, or 1 in 5 people a non resident migrant guestworker.
    🔻And 250,000 elsewhere, mostly other state capitals.

    Australian Wages impact.
    1.4 million are on a visa pretext / working illegally. The detail posted here before.

    The vast majority of the non resident TR migrant guestworkers are of third world origin, adult & unskilled. (DHA tables of origin & visa category at bottom of the Vsure link)
    They have very high rates of work participation – but many work illegally as well legally due to their visa categories & conditions if entry or COE.
    The vast majority on extensive evidence, plus their DHA listed country of origin & visa category show they are poor to very poor, often in debt to a foreign agent procurer, and burdened in sending back remittances to their families in their country of origin. (World Bank & Western Union / explosion in Australian personal xfer / foreign remittances from $4b to $18b)

    Many have fake ID, multiple jobs, work in the cash economy, or ABN / labor rings with no tax paid.

    🔹TR migrant guestworker income.
    The Treasury estimate is migrant TR yearly earnings of $43.7 each or $24 hour. And that’s generous.
    There is much media evidence & exposure that it is closer to $15 or $10 an hour – offset by extreme hours & multiple jobs.
    As one example: the 672,000 foreign students & partners across a number of visa categories.
    The total declared funds of all TR yearly is $4.2 billion (DHA). The foreign students (non self declared) are $2.8 billion of this. However this is extensively frauded.
    The 672,000 foreign students & partners do form a $29 billion onshore sub economy of economic activity (@$43.7 each average income) but almost all that money was EARNED HERE onshore & 75% illegally fake ID or cash in hand.
    So our foreign student industry is NOT AN EXPORT INDUSTRY at all.
    The attending primary visa students only pay $8.2 billion in fees (Deloitte Access Economics) which is less than 505,000 jobs they steal costing some $9.2 billion in Centrelink.
    So even on the most basic measure, one major visa group – the 672,000 foreign student industry is immediately negative and a cost burden import to Australians.

    And it’s the same in the other visa categories.

    On balance the 2.5 million migrant guestworkers, who are mostly adult working age & unskilled, highly motivated to work legally & illegally / displace at least 2 million Australian jobs.

    As we see in our unemployment statistics (below).

    They massively lower Australian wages.
    The average Australian wage ABS May 26th 2017 full-time male weekly earnings $1,631 / females $1388 weekly..
    Or 50/50 gender = $1,500 or $78,000 or $43 a hour.
    So even using the much higher treasury migrant guestworker wage estimate (perhaps the cash rate of $15 -20 hour being a gross rate of $24 hour if they were actually to pay tax) the migrant guestworkers are working at $24 an hour, or half the rate of the $48 Australian average.
    12.7 million (ABS seasonally adjusted Workers Dec 2018) + the migrant guestworkers illegal black economy the ABS has no stats for is 14.1 million.

    12 million at $48 hour & 2.1 million of the 2.5 million migrant guestworkers working at $24 a hour in a full time equivalent week (one or multiple jobs)

    ➡️ That gives an Australian wages loss or degradation of 6.8% or more.

    Which means every migrant guestworker costs every Australian ($1,500 a week average) at least $102 a week or $5,300 a year lost income.

    That’s just the tip of the iceberg in impact.

    Many migrant guestworkers are working illegally, Fake ID, cash, labor rings so they aren’t paying tax, but they are creating massive cost impacts on public services, transport, education & infrastructure projects – so that is an extra tax burden on Australians subsidising the migrant guestworkers.

    The migrant guestworkers create Australia unemployment.

    We have 1.3 million Australian/PR unemployed (Roy Morgan feb 2019) & lets say half are totally unemployable, but the other half genuinely can’t get a legal job because migrant guestworkers are being hired instead.
    So that’s at least 750,000 Australian/ PR at $18k centrelink / support a year each – costing the Australian taxpayer $13.4 billion or $1,100 per Australian taxpayer.

    We then have another 1.1 million Australians seeking work. No direct taxation outlay impact, but let’s say it’s only part time work at the same rate of $43.7k as the migrant guestworkers.

    That’s $48 billion of lost wages earnings & another 18% tax loss of $9 billion on that potential income & again lowering our GDP per Capita.

    Then add on 116,000 Australian permanent homeless and another 360,000 on housing assistance displaced by the migrant influx – that directly costs us $4.8 billion a year (DHS) – that’s another $400 each taxpayer cost.

    Then add on housing contention (rent or mortgage debt) cost of living impacts – another $3,000 at least of direct tangible costs yearly.

    Then add on degraded our education with exploding costs as the education industry was allowed to sell itself as a migrant guestworker visa alibi – at say a modest $2-3,000 per averaged worker yearly.

    Then add on congestion, contention and overload of services, hospitals, environment, ‘water levies’ tolls etc as the cities population explodes way beyond projectors capacity – $2,000 a year each.

    And it quickly gets to the view that each and every migrant guestworker is costing something like $5,000 a year lost wages growth / income ($60.5 billion) over $20 billion in lost taxation as much of this is at the top rate… plus other taxation loss in the people seeking work but displaced by the migrant guestworkers.
    Plus an added cost of living of some $6,000 each as well..

    ➡️🔻So $11k negative to each Australian worker.🔻
    That’s a conservative estimate.

    The action needed.
    Exit the 1.4 million migrant guestworkers who are working & living illegally.

    Control the remaining 1.1 million to have no work rights at all, or only genuine high quality skilled & high income earners..

    Then the average Australian Workers would be $11k or 14% better off.

    That would ‘catch up’ nearly a decade of gdp per Capita, wages and productivity decline.

    Our government wages tax inputs would be much higher, our outlays would be far less – justifying a reduction in taxation rates.

    The cost of living would fall.
    Large white elephant ‘infrastructure projects’ costing tens of billions would not be needed.

    ▪️The Net Benefit:
    ▫️A Higher Australian Employment rate,
    ▫️A higher gdp per capita – particularly as most of our economy is based on fixed commodity exports divided by the number of people here. Less people, higher average GDP per Capita.
    ▫️Less taxation,
    ▫️Lower cost of living,
    ▫️Better housing affordability,
    ▫️Better & more affordable education,
    ▫️Less congested trains & buses.
    ▫️Over 500,000 cars / international licence drivers taken off the city roads,
    ▫️A more sustainable use of our infrastructure & environment
    ▫️And a far better standard of living for all Australians and our new PR. (Who we are stuck with btw).


    Neither major political party has shown any indication to act to the Australian public interest, despite the majority of Australians wanting a reduced migrant intake.

    Both political parties have a long history of deceit and playing out tangential issues (457, backpacker tax, boat people etc) whilst increasing the migrant intake.

    Both parties have been exposed as beholden to vested interests and lobbyists to continue the migrant guestworker overload.

    The Australian people need to take control of our migration intake via a Royal Commission.

    A People’s Commission that would control all migrant intake settings, social & economic capacity, and sets the policy for locations, condition of entry, tracking & visa enforcement.

    1. Slash the PR intake.

    2. Force location controls, non resident identity card, income and activity reporting for all non residents (as per China and most other countries).

    3. Exit at least 1.4 million non resident migrant guestworkers in visa breach, who should have never been allowed into Australia in the first place.