NZ immigration continues to retrace

By Leith van Onselen

After Statistics New Zealand last month changed the way that it measures net overseas migration (NOM), resulting in large falls in the estimated migrant intake, it has released migration estimates for the 2018 calendar year, which reveals that NOM fell further to 48,278 people, down from a peak of 62,227 in 2016:

As noted by Statistics New Zealand, the fall in NOM was driven by increased migrant departures:

  • migrant arrivals – 145,800 (± 1,700), up 2 percent
  • migrant departures – 97,500 (± 1,400), up 9 percent
  • annual net migration – 48,300 (± 1,800), down from 52,700 (± 200).

Whereas arrivals continue to be dominated by Chinese and Indians:

  • China – 15,700 (± 400)
  • India – 14,400 (± 200)
  • United Kingdom – 7,800 (± 200)
  • Philippines – 7,600 (± 100)
  • Australia – 7,400 (± 500).

Given estimates of housing demand have been determined using the old (significantly lower) NOM estimates (shown below), this must mean that New Zealand may actually not have a housing shortage.

Just goes to show, just about any problem can be ‘solved’ by changing the metric.

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