Newspoll: Labor heading for stomping victory

By Leith van Onselen

The Coalition’s scaremongering over border protection and negative gearing has failed to lift its electoral fortunes, with the latest Newspoll of voter intentions maintaining Labor’s six point lead over the Coalition, 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis:

Labor’s and the Coalition’s primary votes have also remained dead flat at 39% and 37% respectively:

If the vote is distributed evenly (which it never is), this would spell the loss of 14 Seats for the Coalition. So, with less than three months to go until the federal election, it’s fair to say that the Coalition is facing annihilation.

[email protected]

Comments

  1. Precisely. Newspoll is the most accurate poll.

    The other polls fluctuate like crazy.

    Brandseye in South Africa correctly predicted the Brexit referendum result and the Trump election result by looking at tweets instead of calling landlines (which many voters do not have any more)

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Makes sense. The problem with landline and face to face type calls are
      1: There are so many scammers these days many people just hang up / shut the door unless they know the person
      2: It is well know that what people say to a stranger doing the survey and what they say / do/ think in private is often different.
      3: A growning cohort of people no longer have a traditional landline, which skews the results.
      4: More people (esp young people) live in access controlled complexes which prevents people from doorknocking.

      • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

        Point 1 makes a lot of sense to me. I’m in the seat of Higgins, and I’ve started hanging up on pollsters. They just put you on a database to track your changes over time. Reachtell called me twice in the last week, I used to give them all my thoughts, now I’m just hanging up on them, I don’t trust their privacy management.

    • Let’s hope so, Jacob. It is only right that the incumbent party gets punished for an endless round of policy blunders (including the desire to maintain the economic status quo i.e. rent-seekers ahead of citizens).

      Too bad Labor can’t get its head around the immigration issue. That said, if Labor win by a landslide, it may be enough for the Liberals to come round to the fact that immigration is their only route back

      • More likely is Labor will lose control of borders and LNP will again win on that alone.

        Status quo with massive plane loads of visa holders day after day after day.

        Once again Labor’s weakness leads to massive population growth and another round of LNP government.

    • Precisely. Newspoll is the most accurate poll.

      Rubbish. But wouldn’t expect anything less from you.

      Newpoll is by far the most biased of all the polls – it was a flat out propaganda machine for Murdoch under Galaxy and now under Shakespeare its just a hard right wing spruiker.

      Do you ever know anything it is all just “this is what I reckon ! Nah – why would I research it – its obvious!”

    • I had one of these survey calls on the weekend. I was going to go through with it up until the point where they said that by continuing I was consenting to them using my personal information. I promptly hung up.

  2. proofreadersMEMBER

    “… it’s fair to say that the Coalition is facing annihilation”

    Do not underestimate what the happy clappy PM is capable of?

  3. proofreadersMEMBER

    “partner with farmers, local governments and businesses to deliver practical climate solutions across the economy that reduce emissions”.

    Before ScoMo p.isses another $2-3bn over 10 years, up against a wall, can we be told what we got for Abbottolypse $3bn handout?

    • Taxpayer money for National party mate$.
      What a disgrace.
      Corrupt policy from a corrupt Government.

  4. So all the bullcr*p written over the last 2 weeks about the electoral implications of boats was just that, bullcr*p. Bullcr*p from a commentariat that has lost touch with actual political reality.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Of course. But you knew that anyway. Look at Insiders yesterday, basically a meh to Liberal corruption but BOATS!!!

      Geez, even when Caretaker PM Scummo was in a press conference with the toothy kiwi PM he got a dorothy dixer from a Rupes reporter about boats. She worded it better than the speaking in tongues idiot though so that’s okay.

      I knew her dad and her since she was a young girl. So happy for her to break the shackles of small town Queensland and make something of herself. Now I’m disappointed. Maybe it’s true, Rupert does corrupt all.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Its Power that corrupts all,…even our finest individuals.
        This is why Real Democratic accountability and control of policy and decision making is so crucial.
        Possibly essential for our civilisations very survival.

        https://youtu.be/ljaXy1t0I44

      • There is power at the top for sure, but It’s not the power that corrupts at that level, it’s the money and the right to participate in a consumer society. The corporations that sell gambling to addicts, that sell sugary drinks to children, that run factory fishing fleets, that market alcohol to kids, that rip out forests for consumer goods, that build housing estates with no trees and yards etc etc, they are made up of thousands of ordinary people trying to live meaningful lives. Once people step behind the veil of the corporate, most lose that humanness – in fact they need to to survive. You could call at greed, but it’s not really greed, it’s something altogether more complex. Chomsky is correct when he starts looking more at the structure of the corporate vehicle, there is something in the design that is flawed.

  5. Labor in power will be equally bad. Not sure they have changed much. Unfortunately the economic time bomb will explode on their watch. It will be interesting to see how they either manage or mismanage things ….

    • Though I agree Labor in power will be equally bad, the economy is toast regardless. The only upside I can see is that Labor is more likely to nationalise our failing banks and the LNP would probably lean towards bailing them out.

      I’m fairly confident neither Labor or the Coalition will get the numbers to form government though – I think the country has had a gutful of them both.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Indeed.
      The car is remote controlled by an ADHD 4 year old, and, the politicians in the car argue amongst themselves about who is the better driver:

      Our day to day experience is completely controlled by private companies over which the government has little, if any, control. Nor do they really want any.
      Occasionally the government pleads and bargains with the private companies in control to play nice with the people who elect them and who they are meant to protect.

      In this environment, it doesn’t matter a tinker’s continental about which party is in power. Regardless of the party, they all have the exact same level of control over the experiences of their constituents, which is exactly 3/5ths of 5/8ths of SFA.

    • Reckon that’s bad, try this one on for size:. Morrison and Agnus Taylor are making Whyalla wipeout claims over Labor’s climate change policy based on a report by one Dr Brian Fisher – a well known climate sceptic. So who is this mysterious person?

      During Fisher’s time heading up ABARE, the bureau produced what were clear outlier estimates relative to other macroeconomic modellers suggesting an extremely high economic cost from reducing emissions under a future Kyoto Protocol.

      One problem was that the modelling was part funded by a series of high emission businesses. An ombudsman investigation observed: “Information obtained by the Ombudsman indicated that ABARE had adopted a funding structure and administrative practices for its climate change research projects which failed to adequately protect ABARE as a public sector research agency from allegations of undue influence by vested interests.”

      https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/abbott-recalls-one-of-the-dirty-dozen/news-story/958bee83a233f0391717c8e7656dd6dd

      What makes this even better is The Australian ran a front page story quoting Fisher’s report yet they were the same mob who outted him as a vested interest stooge.

      • proofreadersMEMBER

        The truth according to happy clappy ScoMo and pretty-boy management consultant Taylor? Come again?

  6. The Traveling Wilbur

    A) That first chart is really starting to remind me of the VisionOn logo these days. Next comes the waving arms and bug-eyes. [Insert own joke here.]

    B) Not to count one’s chickens… but maybe all the MBers should chip in to hire a minibus for the next parliamentary term. So the Libs and Nats can be sure they’ll be able to get the whole team to Parliament everyday​ after the election.

  7. I honestly don’t see why the liberals or nationals deserve a single seat in the next parliament.

    • Sure but neither does Labor, or the Greens for that matter. All of our established parties have become horrendous, the status quo needs to change on all sides.

    • Forrest GumpMEMBER

      +1.

      with 46% of voters considering LNP, we already have a problem in Australia.

      Do they live under a rock, or they they blind, stupid & or greedy climate deniers? (Or all of the above?)

      I simply just don’t get it. How can anyone vote LNP has got me.

  8. Running a scare campaign early when the scare can be easily and simply refuted with actual numbers – ie how much is wasted on negative gearing, how much is gifted back to rich retirees is not really a scare campaign. It’s an appeal to vested interests. The LNP will want to make sure they have the numbers on the vested interests.

      • Most people won’t change an established opinion on the back of facts, that’s true. But that’s not really what’s going on here for Labor. Labor wouldn’t be running this policy if their market testing didn’t show it was an established or reinforceable belief in their target voter.

  9. these agencies always make sure it looks to close to call before elections – just to appearance of democracy survives another cycle while nothing really but party colour changes

  10. I’ll put the coalition above Labor in my preferences, although they’ll both be at the bottom, simply because I want neither of them to form government and Liberal looks the least likely to get votes at this stage. They have both become toxic for Australia – we need a viable 3rd option in the HOR.

      • Kind of – but before you say Sustainable Australia, I would prefer a less warm and fuzzy party.

        An economically centrist party with a nationalist/protectionist bent, whose primary concerns are the Australian environment and Australian workers – with a notion to generally oppose globalism, political correctness and victim mentalities. Zero immigration conservative socialists – what Labor used to be, way back when they meant something.