Macro Afternoon

The good mood from overnight on the basis that the US/China trade talks are progressing forward has turned here in Asia, with red across the board. Stocks have declined, with Chinese bourses in the lead as the Yuan fix strengthened considerably, while Pound Sterling rockets higher on the possibility of a delayed Brexit.

The Shanghai Composite is down nearly 1% going into the close, after the huge surge yesterday, still above 2900 points but a welcome reversion. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is doing the same, off by about 0.7% and closing at 28747 points. The current rally remains intact , with no new close below the high moving average or the trendline on the daily chart:

US and Eurostoxx futures have slipped following the post close readjustment on the S&P 500 overnight as the market fails again to break the psychologically important  2800 point level:

Japanese stock markets were the best in the region, slowing only slightly as Yen strengthened, with the Nikkei 225 off by 0.4% to 21449 points, but still above key resistance that had been broken recently. The USDJPY pair has shown itself to have a false break however, with last night’s move above trailing ATR resistance at the 111 handle having reversed smartly back below and on the downtrend again:

The ASX200 took back all of its previous gains and then some, closing nearly 1% lower to close at 6128 points, but still maintaining above the key 6100 point resistance level after previously setting up for further gains above 6200. The Australian dollar has stabilised at the mid 71 level, having been unable to breach the 72 handle overnight, where I’m watching the longer term downtrend line at the mid 71 handle:

The economic calendar continues tonight with a grilling by BOE Governor Mark Carney, followed by a slew of US housing data, then Fed Governor Powell’s testimony to the US Senate.


    • The worst guy if l remember correctly was a bishop mulkernes? From Ballarat also, l think he was per pell, he was the weirdest guy I ever met as a kid

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yeah, Mulkearns. He was the one who covered up for Ridsdale and co.

        I grew up in a religious town like Ballarat. Luckily my family isn’t religious and happy to send ungrateful kids to state schools. We knew what went on though. Know blokes who still want vengeance. What got me interested was when a very dodgy local religious family got all het up about things in Victoria. One of them still has a say in federal politics. Finally realised it was about protecting the church, not making it better.

        Go through the big doors and there is scum as far as the eye can see.

    • I bet you’re scared Georgie-poo

      As soon as the news broke this morning I’ve had Tim Minchin’s song in my head all day. I hope he gets shanked in prison, loses some organs and dies in a prison hospital alone and in horrible pain.

      • Just like dolly dun my old chemistry teacher, died alone in Lithgow gaol, he was so dodgy the other teachers told us to stay away from him before he even had a chance

      • Catholic church needs to be disbanded, stripped of it’s assets and thoroughly destroyed. Pedophiles are bad enough, but pedos in the ranks of the moralising catholic church that rails against abortion, contraception, homosexuality, and all the rest, who then protect and seemingly encourage this kind of thing deserve the very hottest seat in hell. Why the fvck do they get tax breaks and gifted land and other tax free assets so they have enough money to hire the best lawyers or politicians to defend themselves.
        As has been seen recently, they have so many friends in high places they are almost above the law. (they were completely above the law 40 years ago) Seems we have a lot of people in high places that similarly like fvcking kids.
        Agree wrt Pell.

      • No the catholic Church needs to allow priests to get married as per Christians and orthodox and stop this bs going on. It is in our dna for humans to be in sexual relationships and this is what you get when you deny that

    • Andrew Bolt has proudly appointed himself head apologist for the convicted child rapist and pedophile George Pell.

      Andrew, champ! your mate is a CONVICTED Pedophile and Child Rapist!

      It won’t boost your ratings!

      • I’m trying to think if there was even a church in the area I grew up. Maybe we were such heathens even the churches thought we were beyond redemption.

    • Has anyone here ever sat on a jury in a murder trial? Perhaps some of you have. I have. It was about 8 years ago. Absolutely, off the scale brutal. Gut churning vicious. I’ve seen some shocking stuff on the internet but that really scarred me. The process was heavy. The accused practically confessed to the murder, but it was seriously difficult convicting him. I remain gobsmacked by the process, the legal instruction, the direction, the total whipping we’d get from the tipstaff. I’ve had a very deep respect for the role of juries ever since. The sense of responsibility is other-worldly. And I was reading Zizek’s Violence at the time!

      Point being. If a jury has convicted the MF. Then that is bloody good enough for me.

      • Yes Ortie, Everything you said, serious gravitas & a total a pressure cooker! I couldn’t help but think of GIGO when things were struck off as inadmissible after it’d already been thrown out there, & you knew they were only telling you what They thought was relevant to the case…… Really difficult job! But I think they usually get it right.

    • A. The Author of GDP publicly stated it was never meant to be a stand alone econometric, bastardization of his works and its intent.

      B. Econometrics themselves were highly contentious back in the day due to questions about methodology, blinkers, worship, dumbing down, et al.

      Whats the point of having a singular number [tm] that has no distribution vectors dictating or influencing so many other decisions on the health of an economy or society itself.

    • “She also disputed the inclusion of Alphington in Melbourne and Cockburn Central in Perth. “We are seeing premium Perth pick up,”

      Fvcking LOL! Cockburn central is also meth central! Premium hahahahah oh my god.

      • Need to wake up to the Nerida Conisbee phenomenom. Several months back in the Herald Sun, she called for more immigration to protect price levels of peoples’ biggest investment. For the last few months she has been saying that fears of price falls are exaggerated across the board. I see now she is fine tuning her optimism to acknowledge the Sydney situation. Watch out for Nerida, her panglossian views are a vital feature of The negativity of the media isn’t helping she said. lol

      • Anthropos metron

        I’m around Alphington – prices went from $400-$800k between about 2012-2015 then $800-$1.6M 2016-2018 then pushed $2mill

        They have already dropped back to $1.6 – but its a VERY tightly held area.

        The region is however saturated with development – Melbourne biggest development in the paper mill is huge – while every single block as at least one or two developments right up through Ivanhoe.

        Nothing is selling.

      • Alphington? …..Was $600k median in 2009. $900k in 2012 now $1.3…I don’t know where you get your stats from?

    • The data from the American experience shows location is the determinate w/ a side of wages or income of certain locations relative to any correction and resulting price recovery.

      • Price corrections were correlated to specific dynamics to each location – per se jumbo prime vs sub prime, inner city rings or urban track – spec RE, and as noted how related economic down turns effect individuals or families located in each location. I’m only pointing out what the data showed, no personal hang ups attached.

        Tim …. speak to the data OK.

      • Makes sense.

        I expect here the areas that get smashed the most will be the low-income overextended mortgage belt, the massively leveraged equitymate “affluent” tryhards who spend every cent showing off, and the investor-heavy nests of sky kennels.

      • Not to mention the correction does not always correlate to better economic outcomes for the hardest hit, just the opposite. Not to mention those with funds buy up vast quantities of RE to become price setters, more international absentee ownership, or my fav Blackrock becoming the largest RE owner in the nation.

      • @Skippy – So you are saying price drops varied between different suburbs and areas and this had differing effects on the individuals and families in those areas? So insightful – Thanks.

      • zaxxon …

        You know that’s not what I’m saying, so why attempt it, considering the huge dislocations, feed back loops, and best for last – more consolidation of wealth by the financial elites.

        Best bit is in the American case it wasn’t the RE implosion that triggered the GFC, it was the gaggle of shorters that drove it and extenuated the whole process -otherwise it would have been a mild S&L level recession. So the shorters helped in the largest transfer of wealth upwards in modernity …. whilst everyone else gets bootstrapping … golf clap …. strange how that mobs ideological preferences always seem to proceed such events.

    • Anthropos metron

      Just spent an hour or so on and pretty much every single property on there in the regions I was looking at in Victoria was an absolute MINIMUM of 10% fall – while by far the most were 20% reductions.

      The figures are being cooked big time.