Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Not a good finish to the week here in Asia with all stock markets reporting a loss as pessimism around any trade deal between the US and China builds, with Trump’s focus on domestic issues and creating an “emergency” as political theater. The USD has reversed again with gold prices lifting slightly.

The Shanghai Composite lost nearly 1%, blipping below the 2700 point barrier, closing at 2694 points. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell even further, selling off to make a new weekly low, down 1.8% to 27943 points. This doesn’t mean the trend is over with the low moving average still untouched but I’m watching the 27600 point level closely:

US and Eurostoxx futures are retreating in line with other risk assets with the S&P 500 looking to revert back down to the ATR support level at 2730 points, unable to breach the 2760 point level of resistance all week:

Japanese stock markets fell as well, with the Nikkei 225 closing over 1% lower at 20884 points, falling below key resistance that had been broken briefly. The reversal of USD strength from the retail sales print overnight continued into the Asian session as the USDJPY pair pushed down to the low 110 level. This could accelerate if it crosses below the previous resistance now support level at 110.20:

The ASX200 was the strongest in the region this time with a late surge to just finish in the green, up a few points to close at 6066 points. The Australian dollar has retraced again, heading back below the 71 handle as it failed to make a new high so this looks like another return to the January lows:

The economic calendar finishes the week with a whimper, not many important releases to watch save the reaction to Trump’s “National Emergency”. There’s some tertiary releases in Europe that could be Euro-sensitive, plus Janaury industrial production numbers from the US. Have a good weekend!

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      • Missus and I got married in Red Hill, lovely area. I do like the Mornington Peninsula. Spent a lot of time down that way as a kid. My grandmother had a holiday house in Tootgarook. Then when the lads and I were teensgers we used to go down that way for the Fireworks in Rye, check out the ladies, the innocence of youth .

      • That Roger Montgomery article is great. The graph has Panton Hill. Which is close to where I was looking..

        Median was $1.045m now $862k…that’s a 17.5% decline..

        I mentioned a house I was keen on that sold for $770k in Jan 2017. Now asking $950k. Well it’s in a suburb next to Panton Hill. So that goes to show how things are retracing.

      • “Retail sales slumped in January and the fashion category fell by 3.8 per cent – annualise that!”

        Lol, does Roger read the comments section here? 😀

      • I heard Roger a couple of weeks ago on abc radio. He was saying that there was no chance of a housing crash. Because fundamentals.

      • You must have been hearing wrong, Roger has been saying housing is a bubble for over five years.

  1. matthew hoodMEMBER

    Family in Sydney are thinking of downsizing, agent said if they freshen it up he could get 1.3m. Same agent came with a offer of 1.6m with a 30 day settlement just over 12mths ago. Wonder what % is the tipping point for people?

    • Mr Mills says buyers should also take into account extra costs that come with homes including maintenance, council rates and taxes.

      I’ll bet 99% don’t….

    • It doesn’t say what interest rates you’ll pay? Seems they would let a couple on $80k p/year (each) borrow $750k.. Seems too much to me.

      • For gorsakes why though?
        He’s 85 and he’s buying now when it’s going to take five years for things to turn around.

      • Robert, because he is a greedy, selfish old chunt…. Plus, at risk of being racialist, its in his jew blood.

    • “China has more than 1 billion people,” he said. “And they love Australia. I think they love Australia as much as we love Australia. So there will always be enough of them that will buy.”

      • J Bauer

        Interesting article in El Pais Spanish news about Chinese money laundering.

        Around a thousand people of Chinese origin, according to police estimates, marched outside the BBVA Foundation in Madrid on Friday to protest a widespread freeze on their bank accounts.

        The bank says it is complying with anti-money laundering legislation and denies any discrimination based on race, as the demonstrators claim.

        The Chinese federation believes as many as 5,000 people could be affected.

        The banks began blocking accounts months ago, but the wave of new freezes last week, during the Chinese New Year, was especially painful to the community.

        The demonstrators included students, business owners and employees who have been unable to access the money in their accounts for months.

        Gotta love the Spanish !!

      • The Chinese are buyers up until the Chinese Govt starts putting people in jail or confiscating property for funneling money out of the country.

    • He’s sh!tting himself. That entire article was a false confidence spruik. You don’t put out articles like that if things are going well.

      Meriton is one Opal Tower incident/revelation away from ruin.

      • You are reminding me of a 60 Minutes interview with Harry over a decade ago discussing the potential of a housing crash. The host said to Harry “a crash would ruin you”. Harry responded “ruin ME?” in a wtf tone of voice.

      • It would be interesting to know just how much risk he has really taken on.

        My guess is that he isn’t selling many of them right now.

      • Drinking the blood of renters and not bathing in it?
        Some on this site might enjoy the thought of Countess Bathory’s end befalling Harry.

      • He had one just like that with racing sh!t in it (stop me if I get too technical). Sold for around 5k I think.

        He got Jeebus and sold it. Now wants another one.

        The L0rd works in mysterious ways

      • He got Jeebus as in went religious and gave up worldly things?
        The 260z 2+2 is the longer roof line that generally was less desirable than the 2 seaters. They used to be cheap as they were the ugly duckling. Now though a good 2 seater starts in the low $40k range and goes up to around $80k. So the 2+2s have gone up in value

        It used to be that there was at least 15 or so for sale at any given time, but now they are all parted out and you can’t find any for sale. So prices have bumped up.

        I can’t recall if you asked but someone did after I posted this 1 in North America. It sold $48k range USD.

        Which is about what I expected. Prices locally seem to have stagnated with our property market tanking… Meanwhile in North America it’s up up up… for now…

        I think there will be a few bargains for sale in future if the global economy comes off the boil.

    • “Residents have been provided with up to $2500 for emergency accommodation while displaced from their homes.” we’re did this money come from?

  2. interested partyMEMBER

    There we go…..Trump called it as he said he would. No surprise really.
    National Emergency called at 3:14 local time in the US [significant?]. Looks like the wall will be built using the military engineers after all.

    We were given a heads-up in late march last year. Red castle/green castle.

    • Those extraordinary presidential powers are the gift that keep on giving post 9/11 and supposed to be temporary … did you see that AOC campaign finance lark …

      Anywho is the wall to keep people out or in …. conversely would the money be better spent on social goods than something out of a dystopian move back drop … IQMWLTK …

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Yeah ….the campaign lark. You see the one about planned parenthood backdooring the dems?
        Story goes it was 60+mil last mid-terms.

      • What does planned parenthood have to do with the topic at hand, the wall, any president since the expanded powers after 9/11 w/ noting it was supposed to be temporary, and endemic corruption.

        One would think your trying to distract from core issues to some moronic trigger about planned anything. Can we desist from straying off topic unless its relevant in a way. Ta.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        It’s relevant,,,,you asked about the wall…
        An example..
        John of God from Brazil shipped infants he was breeding via “farms” and selling across the border. The wall will go a long way towards stopping that. This john bloke is mates with HRC, oprah, others….curious, that. Didn’t weiners laptop have clinton emails on it?…oh, that’s right…crimes against children was on it as well..remember? I bet that wall will stop a good bit of this stuff…don’t you?
        More examples in haiti….same stuff, different place. Ngo’s, global charities, politicians foundations, hollywood star foundations, always hanging around orphanages. Trump alluded to this in his Al Smith Dinner speech here..
        Look for the part about hillary taking several villages… you know the context. timestamp 12:25 approx…but the whole vid is notable.
        On PP…
        PP is a slush fund for the dems….[illegally sells infant parts and blood …keeps one young I hear.]…anyway, Pp is funded by gov to the tune of 500mi+ and feed a portion back to the dems. How do the dems pay it back? How about push law on full term abortion. What happens to the aborted baby?
        Keanu Reeves can fill you in on what the babies are good for….seems a hollywood mogul he knew kept a few in the fridge.
        That should fill in the endemic corruption side somewhat.
        As to the presidential powers Trump is using…yeah, i thought it was temporary as well…but then again….She was never meant to lose, so that might explain it.

      • Mate that loon pond stuff does not work on me[.]

        The Wall is a joke because there is so many other ways to circumvent it, not that neoliberalism is synonymous with American influence for yonks in central south America. What you don’t think selling kids is just a drama outside America, screwing with kids and their minds has been a profit driven corporatist pogrom for decades.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Keep that nose clamped shut…the sand could get in.

        You seem to be half way there on recognising the problems…but a mental bridge to far it seems for the rest…

        The wall was never claimed as a fix-all….unless you know something we don’t? It is a damn good start….or would you rather sit back and navel gaze while the world sinks into sickness?

      • Do try the link I posted above, might actuality inform you about how secondary events have a primary source. Then again thanks for not dealing with anything that was on going and drag things off on some snipe hunt.

      • Sic semper tyrannis

        Name me a country in Europe that does not enforce its borders !

        Name one ANYWHERE !

        Germany, Italy, Poland – all of them have 100% reversed their open borders policy, openly admitted it was massive mistake and have started DEPORTING people who should never have been allowed in.

        The only place on earth where the argument that illegal migrants should be able to swarm over the border is the United States – why ?

        Its absolutely completely and utterly absurd in the most ludicrous way.

        There are two reasons why. The first – people like you just don’t think beyond the “group think” and chant whatever the populist moral bandwagon slogan of the moment is – a never ending roller coaster of absurd wowzerism – truly a re-imagining of the WORST parts of the prurient, puritanical, Victorian era temperance movement – new wave blasphemy to speak out.

        The second and most obvious is that the flood of illegals will tip the vote in favor of Democrats – they only needed a few hundred thousand spread over a few district and the millions which have poured in have already secured them the house.

        Its such a disgrace – wholesale invasion cheered on by dullards and moralizers.

        Pathetic levels of ignorance.

      • Sic semper tyrannis

        The Wall is a joke because there is so many other ways to circumvent it

        Every county on earth that has border restrictions reduces illegal migration – what an absolutely absurd comment.

        A border wall would reduce illegal migration, properly monitored that would be brought down to near zero.

        Millions of migrants are coming across the border illegally – right now there are many parts with literally ZERO control.

        A wall would stop 90% of the migration – there is no question about this – look to the rest of the world – what an absurd statement.

        Drones, dogs, cameras would EASILY defeat almost everyone.

        The point is NOT to eradicate it – but to REDUCE it – if you are saying that a properly built and patrolled wall would not reduce it then you’re the most disingenuous person on earth.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        smithy…you could get a start at buzzfeed setting the headlines for the fake articles they manufacture.
        You would fit in there.

      • smithy…you could get a start at buzzfeed setting the headlines for the fake articles they manufacture.
        You would fit in there.

        That’s pretty funny from someone using Yournewswire as an authoritative source.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        I do try to keep it friendly… point being silly about it all.
        revisit ssst’s posts….there is some hard truths in there. Work on understanding what he’s telling you. No straw man.

      • You’re peddling misogynist, anti-liberal, far-right conspiracy theories. “Friendly” is not how I’d describe it.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        “You’re peddling misogynist, anti-liberal, far-right conspiracy theories. “Friendly” is not how I’d describe it.”

        Mysogynist …… you study up on the meaning of that word. Don’t paint me as something I am not. You couldn’t be anymore wrong on this one than you already are……..seriously
        Not anti-liberal at all……I am really really anti-corruption and criminality. How about you?
        No political persuasion…….good try to place me in what ever box fits your argument though.
        Where is the conspiracy???????
        Just because you refuse to acknowledge something does not automatically qualify it as conspiracy…..but it obviously does for you, it seems…….

      • Mysogynist …… you study up on the meaning of that word.

        I’m well aware of what the word means, which I why I don’t roll it out frequently, or lightly.

        What do you think all that anti-abortion and planned parenthood claptrap is ? The people pushing that aren’t doing it because they care about children – just look at their views on things like welfare for single mothers to see even their crocodile tears dry up as soon as the baby is born – they’re doing it to control and punish [the wrong kinds of] women.

        Don’t paint me as something I am not.

        Then stop peddling those ideas. I don’t know anything about you except what you post here, and the kinds of people you consistently use to source, support and advocate in those posts. That is what I must draw conclusions from.

        Where is the conspiracy???????

        The fabricated story about Keanue Reeves.
        The fabricated story about planned parenthood selling baby parts.
        The usual misrepresentation by the anti-abortion crowd of women eagerly lining up to get late term abortion just because they can when the reality is they’re extremely rare.
        The deliberate and deceptive conflation of planned parenthood the healthcare organisation and planned parenthood the PAC even though they are separate entities.
        The presentation of planned parenthood as some sort of democrats “slush fund” (Half a million dollars in donations ? That’s probably not even enough to cover a decent campain’s coffee bills).
        The constant Nostradamus-esque vagueness about pretty much everything being said (presumably serving to a) avoid libel charges; b) leave enough wiggle room to change the story details as necessary; and c) let people’s imaginations fill in those gaps big enough to fly jumbo jets through.

        Every time it’s the same. A couple of (uncontroversial) factual nuggets buried in a mushroom cloud of wild speculation, paranoia and hate. Someone points at the mushroom cloud and you accuse them of not believing the nuggets. It’s offensively disingenuous.

        Just because you refuse to acknowledge something does not automatically qualify it as conspiracy…..but it obviously does for you, it seems…….

        The utter lack of credible sources, comical bias of the sources that are referenced, vagueness and simple improbability is what makes them conspiracy theories.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        comment into the ether……too long to repeat.

        Media collusion

        forget that it’s breitbart and read it. Media manipulation = zero trust in MSM = obscure sources to get information out.
        Read into that what you want….give me a list of media that is acceptable …in light of the above…

      • Meh, getting modded.

        In summary, the videos were deceptively edited, a court found no wrongdoing by PP and instead indicted members of CMP.

        The Planned Parenthood lobbying organisations are separate from the healthcare organisation, and funded by donations.

        Or to be even more succint, it’s all just bullsh!t.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        “In summary, the videos were deceptively edited, a court found no wrongdoing by PP and instead indicted members of CMP.”

        “David Daleiden, CMP project lead, states:
        “CMP’s videos caught Planned Parenthood’s leadership and business partners turning baby body parts into a cash crop, leading to a successful prosecution in southern California and an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation. Now even the NIH and biotech researchers at the highest levels are divesting from the commercial exploitation of aborted baby parts. The facts prove Judge Orrick was wrong to suppress the undercover videos of Planned Parenthood’s illicit trade in baby body parts, and the only reason to do so was to cloak this barbaric industry from public and government scrutiny.”

        “The Planned Parenthood lobbying organisations are separate from the healthcare organisation, and funded by donations.”
        Your claim requires verifiable evidence…….and your claim is disingenuous and a deflection from the truth.

        “Or to be even more succinct, it’s all just bullsh!t.”
        Videos were sealed by judge….curious thing….dem appointed judge? (hint….obama..)
        Lol…just lol. You are a caricature of a joke now…….holes in your story everywhere and grasping at straws.

        Re-read the above…..and send the media list!

        Where is the media list? Cmon…..put up or shut up.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Don’t miss this little gem at the bottom of the second link…..

        Judge Orrick is an Obama appointee who previously helped found, fund, and operate a Planned Parenthood clinic in San Francisco. A separate motion from CMP is pending to remove Orrick from the case.

        Stick a fork in it sonny

      • Notably lacking is any finding against Planned Parenthood for doing anything like ‘selling baby parts to celebrities for satanic left-extending rituals’.

        Your claim requires verifiable evidence…….

        What is Planned Parenthood Federation of America? How is it different from Planned Parenthood Action Fund?

        Planned Parenthood Federation of America (PPFA) works to support health care providers at Planned Parenthood health centers across the country, educate the public on issues of reproductive and sexual health, and advocate for policy to expand access to health care. PPFA is a 501(c)(3) organization, and donations are tax-deductible to the fullest extent allowable under the law.

        Planned Parenthood Action Fund (PPAF) is the advocacy and political arm of Planned Parenthood, fighting to advance and expand access to sexual health care and defend reproductive rights. PPAF is a 501(c)(4) organization, and donations are not tax-deductible as a charitable contribution or business expense.

        and your claim is disingenuous and a deflection from the truth.

        How’s that ?

        Videos were sealed by judge….curious thing….dem appointed judge? (hint….obama..)
        Lol…just lol. You are a caricature of a joke now…….holes in your story everywhere and grasping at straws.

        That’s funny from someone who writes off every answer he doesn’t like as just another Democrat conspiracy and who relies almost entirely on sources that are, to say the least, of questionable veracity, integrity and objectivity.

        The real question is, once you guys have triumphed against the ravages of atheists, feminists, lefties, science and progress, what then ?

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I have had untold numbers of Chinamen ladies that should have been buying those enhanced coconuts milk. Interestingly, I’ve had equally uncountable Vietnamese ladies that didn’t need enhanced coconuts milk – probably due to the tropical nature of Vietnam and the proliferation of coconut palms. No wonder the Chinamen have always had a fascination with [email protected] and pillaging Vietnam. Often the small things in life are actually extremely important.

      • Then bring home the love bugs and addictions …. special mention to psych mods and sharing the feelings with family and friends ….

      • I’ve known many ladies with large mammaries that didn’t try hard enough to please, and were disappointing. I’ve also known many ladies with difficult to detect glands, that had developed skills that meant that I soon forgot how they were blessed in that area.

    • Nene, the Korean fried chicken chain shop, had bouquets of fried chicken for sale yesterday. Knowing my weakness, I almost took myself out for a surprise dinner.

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        ^^ Umm, everyone knows Asians rarely get as fat as your typically over-indulging slob Caucasian just because they are genetically slimmer with much hotter bodies especially the chicks (I feel sorry for the unfortunate fat ones though, that’s just gross). It’s also why the boys can be chicks too of they like. They are especially blessed peoples. Good on them for having great body success especially the coconut eaters.

      • more like “reach-arounds are just part of the service”

        now there is a tag-line that Reusa could get behind… or stand in front of. Or something.

    • Years ago I talked about C-corps hiving off risk e.g. brokers were just an arms length way to achieve that. Not that the bigger question is what perspective enabled that kinda risk aversion, at one set, w/ the big dawgs still making huge bonuses off the plebs trying to bootstrap themselves to a better social level e.g. mimicking the or emulating the ethics of their betters ….

      So one might get all jizz’ed up about some useful try hard, but how was that architecture in loan underwriting even allowed in the first place, not like it was just some spontaneous occurrence or something.