Macro Afternoon

The poor showing on Wall Street overnight was brushed aside here on Asia with solid lifts across all stock markets today with a big return from Japanese stocks due to the long weekend and much weaker Yen.

The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 0.6% going into the close, currently at 2671 points and building on its solid run from yesterday and Friday’s surge. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is up only a few points to remain above 28000 points, but unable to make a new daily high here, just matching the previous highs:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up with the latter S&P 500 futures looking a bit more optimistic compared to last year, with price bouncing off the psychologically important 2700 point level, with momentum now clearly positive for a breakout:

Japanese stock markets reopened after a holiday and surged, with the Nikkei 225 closing more than 2% higher to 20864 points. This was all due to the catchup in the weaker Yen, with the USDJPY pair pushing higher to the mid 110’s. This is a little overcooked and ripe for a pullback to the high moving average but thereafter there is upside at least at 112 or even 114:

The ASX200 was one of the weaker ones, but still had a solid day, finishing about 0.3% higher to remain well above the 6000 point barrier at 6079 points. The Australian dollar is vainly trying to find a bottom here after falling overnight and is basically unchanged, remaining below the 71 handle and the January low.

The economic calendar has two central banker speeches to keep an eye on tonight, first by BOE Governor Mark Carney, then Fed Reserve Chairman Powell.

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Comments

  1. The coalition Govt has just had one of its butt cheeks handed to it on a plate, with the defeat of its legislation in Parliament – the first for a Govt in 90 years.

    It’s second butt cheek will be served to it with a side of chips and salad in the upcoming elections.

    Well may we say zod save Kylie Minogue, becoz nothing will save the butt of ScoMo.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I’m wondering what was in the info Porter wanted kept secret from everyone before the vote.

      Geez, they can’t even do sneaky properly. How they’ve fallen since the days of our Tony.

      • The advice would refer to the requirement for additional funding required to set up the medical panel and supply is the Governments function. The LNP would have set this as a trap. If their bill went through, no problems, they can alter supply but any other variations would have to contend with the additional supply requirement which the LNP could refer to High Court and there the legislation would die. Hats off to the Speaker Tony Smith for calling bullshido and forcing the release of the advice which pointed to the issue which Labor amended immediately and cut of the LNP’s last possible opportunity to stymie the bill. All rather intriguing really.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I see. Fell for the old exploding cigar trick.

        I’ll say it again. Our Tony was the high point of this government. That is so sad.

    • Ergh, what hyperbole. It was a 75-74 vote and will likely now be referred to the High Court because it’s likely unconstitutional.

      Phelps will probably lose her seat and this gives the Coalition the green light to campaign on borders. Not that it’s an election you’d want to win anyway, but it’s an own goal for Labor. Not that I want either of them to win.

      • Hello Stephen,

        1) 75 is greater than 74
        2) as to the question of whether ot is constitutional – the Solicitor-General provided advice to say that while it MAY be a breach of s.52 there is case law where the High court has declined to rule on such matters.

        In any case, after the Speaker tabled said advice, Labor made an amendment to the legislation that states that the medical panel will not be remunerated or otherwise receive a financial benefit, so it effectively voids the constitutional issue.

        3) I also don’t want either of them to win. But the LNP have been outplayed royally.

      • Fair, I missed the amendment. That clarifies that.

        75 is ONE vote more than 74. That being said, I’m still holding to my view of a Labor win but it will be a lot closer than many are predicting. Potentially hung parliament.

      • You can tell there’s an element of panic amongst the muppets: Dutto’s just done an interview with Leigh Sales.

      • “Under these arrangements tonight, we have people that can come to our country from Manus or Nauru; people that have been charged with child sex offences or allegations around serious offences including murder,” said Mr Dutton.

        “And how many of those (people) are on Nauru and Manus?” Sales asked.

        “I would suggest to you that Australians don’t want those people …” he said before Sales interjected, apparently frustrated that Mr Dutton would suggest violent criminals were in detention but not provide a skerrick of further information to back up his claims.

        “How many are on Nauru and Manus? People charged with serious offences like child sex offences?”

        “We will release that detail if it is appropriate.”

        Soooooo…..none?

  2. Reading through CUA Annual Report and came across this LVR distribution table. I estimate it would take a little more than 35% drop in house prices for CUA to become technically insolvent. Does technical insolvency really matter if the majority of loans are still performing?

    Credit Union 2018 $’000
    LVR 0% – 60% 3,480,016
    LVR 60.01% – 80% 5,983,420
    LVR 80.01% – 90% 1,732,067
    LVR 90.01% – 100% 483,897
    LVR > 100% 20,200

  3. ErmingtonPlumbing

    My almost 11 year old daughter is into eating these Korean rosted seaweed sheets.
    They tast awful, and are like chewing up sheets of Dark green cellophane.
    They can’t be good for her at 2500 kj per 100 grams.
    Am I being old fashioned or correct in thinking this is Shyte food?

  4. So just got another rent increase, $25 p/week…

    When we moved in, back in 2013 it was $550 p/week (no aircon, no dishwasher, outdoor laundry) and lots of cockroaches and a yard that requires constant upkeep in summer (620sqm block of land w/2 bed house).

    So now we’re at $650 p/week, same house, no improvements. If anything it’s deteriorated since we got in and no hope in hell I’ll be fixing it, the landlord is an arse, but we have a dog which makes renting in Sydney hard and I can just squeeze 2 cars in the garage.

    I know Sydney rents are supposed to be dropping, but not in 2046 yet. I honestly can’t wait to stop renting.

    • 2046.. you should feel a bit more sympathy for your landlord after seeing their land tax bill. Their yield right now would be just a but above 1%?

    • Don’t know where abouts you are but we are looking and they are practically begging for tenants. New kitchens aircon and bathrooms galore.

      • Whn Gav says he needs a 2 car garage, he really means 8 cars. Big cars too. With huge engines. And all the tools for working on them.

        You know it’s true mate. 🙂

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Get rid of the dog and cars, they’re unnecessary distractions, and move into a nice apartment instead like real achievers are doing!

    • perhaps time for us to start looking. We are at 2171 and paying $550 for single garage that we turned into storage so one car parked in the carport and two cars parked on the street. Have a dog too which can be an issue when trying to rent.

      • All the ones we are looking at are pet friendly, funny when they get desperate they don’t mind doggo. All the agents sigh and say it’s a renters market…yippie!

    • innocent bystander

      treating tenants badly (regardless of amount of rent paid) is part of the greed-property-culture we have here.
      it ain’t gonna change in our lifetime.

      • You haven’t to seen the Perth and Darwin markets, mates telling me there landlords are kissing butt. It’s all supply and demand

      • innocent bystander

        @AI
        I’m in Perth and have been renting for several years.
        there are markets within markets. can vary greatly from area to area.

        but one thing I can tell you, landlords under financial pressure do not maintain their properties in order to attract better tenants.
        I know cause I have to move because owner won’t do basic maintenance (I’m talking real basic like working toilets).
        last rental I viewed that was clean and liveable there was more than 25 groups looking at the first home open and it went straight away. others are slummy and are still empty – owners won’t improve them to get a tenant.

    • Sic semper tyrannis

      Treating tenants like dirt is the pits – I rent and its just horrific how badly you are treated.

      Its quite mad – we are handing over more money than agents get via selling a house. We are paying off their owners property – we are handing over $2 Grand a month – and we are treated like peasants.

      Imagine the treatment you would get if you were handing that your lawyer, doctor, dentist, – anyone – they would be cuddling you at night with a reach around.

      Really makes me angry.

      Anyway – i intend to walk into my agent when I buy – when they are on the brink and haven’t had a sale in weeks – ask them about their best property – then casually say naaaah – you treated me too poorly as a tenant.

      Thanks for nothing.

      • Couldn’t agree more we have been kicked around and treated like dirt by both owners and agents many times, truly horrible abuse. It makes me wonder how they can do that when we are in their precious asset, amazing how much one can do to stuff things up, like cement down the dunny a pack of kangaroo meat tossed in the roof manhole or prawns in the curtain rods. Suck it you scum.

  5. http://spsp.org/news-center/press-releases/forget-the-bling

    BMW’s and Fashion items may not help you make friends. Sorry Reusa, but they are apparently ok for business contacts..

    While the shirts were not luxury items, 76% of the participants who presented themselves as new friends chose to wear the t-shirt that said, “Saks Fifth Avenue,” whereas 64% of the would-be friends chose the person wearing the “Walmart” t-shirt.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I sense a trap. But wtf…

      £300 million pounds? And the issuance was covered? Wow. I’d be seriously worried as a bond-holder with a figure that size that the uni would Welsh on their debt.

      Please try the veal.

  6. GunnamattaMEMBER

    another classic report from Canada, only a few months old outlining the Special Investor Visa fraud they are picking up.

    nobody is even sussing these guys out in Australia yet….

    Golden visas: Are wealthy foreigners taking advantage of Quebec’s immigration program?
    https://youtu.be/kFZSkSBnFBY

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Genuine question: been to Sunnybank in Brissy recently? That’s somewhere that tells you right in your face that something’s been up (so to speak) for about a decade now. China can’t have any old people left. They are *all* there.

      Fine by me as long as they’re wealthy and not abusing medicare, but eye opening about what has really already transpired (over years) nonetheless.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        I dont know about Chinese so much, but I have seen immigration ‘fraud’ and the whole industries set up to facilitate it – the banks the lawyers and accounts (company creation) and the real estate agents who look the other way.

        To be honest I think there should be a Royal Commission into Australian Special Investor Visa schemes and what their impact is – there are State and Commonwealth SIVs

      • That would steady the rot where capital coming to Australia under the guise of investment is focussed on making as little contribution to Australia as possible
        and getting the biggest tax return from those who do pay Strayan tax.
        Also under scrutiny, in Straya, is money laundering via, “Structured Investment Vehicles”
        Significant Investment Visa and Premium Investment Visa “opportunities” , on a massive scale.

      • Wilbs – Sunnybank is Australia’s Little Taiwan. Totally different bunch to the mainlanders and they have been living there for a few decades now. So most of those oldies you see would likely have migrated to Sunnybank as business people in their thirties and forties and now all their kids are doctors and dentists and the like. I have heaps of time for the Taiwanese generally speaking.

      • I’ve lived in Sunnybank and the local Griffith Uni is the key. Heaps of students go there to eat there, and a lot live there. I remember a supermarket the size of an average Coles with a live fish market out the back. ALL cash only. Two ATM’s near registers. I always thought that immigrants buying imported groceries from other immigrants for cash wasn’t helping.

    • Gunna – it will not surprise you to hear that Australia tends to follow what Canada does with business migration with a lag of a couple of years. They set a scheme and a couple of years later we copy it, they find out it is being rorted and close it down and we take a couple of years to work out the migration agents are working similar scams with our program so we close it down. Rinse and repeat.

      I don’t even think the immigration boffins like business migration as it never achieves its desired outcome, but the state governments and the business groups all love it so successive governments keep looking for the magic formula. Think about it: I am a businessman who, through contacts and channels put together over several decades, has managed to develop a highly successful business in my home country but for some reason I will give all that away and attempt to replicate my success in a country where I have no contacts and I don’t understand how things work. It makes sense that most of the people who try to come in to Australia under the various business programs are simply working the angles.

    • I think the libs know they’re dead and might try to use this a a springboard for an early election as a Hail Mary arguing border protection, negative gearing and franking credits. It will fail. But as the economy tanks along with the housing market I t will give them plenty of credit to say “see, we told you so” and give the libs a leg up next election.

      • proofreadersMEMBER

        They will just to get a few brownie points and whip up a bit more irresponsible lending, while at the same screwing over depositor as always.

    • something’s happening with a crowd called Wirecard too, but I got bored reading about it. The co. had a higher market value than dear Deutsche Bank at some point.

    • Can’t stand her. If you think the identity politics nonsense is bad now wait until her and Penny Wong are in ministerial positions.

      That entire Labor front bench have faces like tram tickets – just want to punch them. Especially that wanker Bowen.

      • Trout à la Crème

        Imagine the identity politics and feminist corruption if Shorten gets stabbed and Plibersek becomes PM.

  7. Lazy Poor Person Has Never Earned Passive Income From Stock Dividends A Day In His Life

    https://local.theonion.com/lazy-poor-person-has-never-earned-passive-income-from-s-1832537497
    (I’ll just copy pasta the whole thing below.)

    “MUNCIE, IN—Shaking their heads in disgust at the irresponsible man’s laziness and lack of initiative, sources disclosed to reporters Monday that impoverished 53-year-old Luke Reilly has never earned passive income from stock dividends a day in his life. “It’s an absolute disgrace that there are people in this country who can’t even be bothered to get up and go out and put some of their cash on hand into high dividend–yielding stocks,” said local resident Deborah Nix, who expressed frustration at the full-time cashier’s refusal to even try investing in a mutual fund or placing a substantial inheritance into an account that generates thousands of dollars a year and can then be tapped into as needed. “He probably just expects everything to be handed to him, but that’s not how it works. You have to get out there and pound the pavement until you find a reputable wealth management firm. Then, it’s just a matter of following the advice of an expert and transferring funds from one place to another. Of course, if someone like that ever did receive a dividend payout or a generous share buyback, he’d probably blow it all by the end of the week.” At press time, sources confirmed Reilly had proven his neighbor’s point by squandering his entire minimum-wage paycheck on rent, bills, and groceries.”

  8. Mr RobertsMEMBER

    Completely off topic, but I would be interested to know peoples opinions on sustainable/ethical investments- who would actually be prepared to take a hit in the pocket for such things? I aim for 7% but I think that 4-5% ethically would satisfy me, given global environmental/ macro conditions… any thoughts?
    I mean you couldn’t really lose going raytheon, ge, blackrock, cca but I’m not sure i’m down with their buzz…

    • Personally, I find Peterson to be a non event. He is reasonably clever, has confidence and is firm in what he believes. His message is appealing to some people but doesn’t really add to any discussion on social topics. Jonathan Haidt is much better at exploring and criticizing these issues. I’ve also read pieces by other academics, such as Prof. Massimo Pigliucci, on the danger of shutting down discussion in academic environments that are far more thoughtful and bring far more to the table than Peterson.

      Academically, his writing is a mess. That he criticizes post modernism while writing in such a vague and convoluted manner, with meaningllessness piled upon meaningnessless, is something I imagine he’d find hilarious in others. (I’ve read a lot of the poster boys of post modernism and, as trying as they can be, there is far more to harvest than in the unempirical and long discredited Jungian archetypes that Peterson hangs his hat on.)

      As for his foray into the self help world, my prediction is that it comes to be looked at as a novel cultural quirk rather than any receptacle of wisdom. Hopefully it acts as a gateway for people to look to other books, in the same way Blink182 may get people interested in music and they can go on to The Clash, Miles Davis, Talk Talk, Mozart, etc, etc.

      However, he does make for good television. They will no doubt find people equally as stubborn, confident and condescending to put opposite him to create friction and manufacture outrage. It’ll then give the interwebs something to spend words and youtube clips on It’s just a shame that the platform of Q&A is wasted upon conflict instead of discussion and the exploration of topics.

      my 2c.

      • Thanks footsie.

        As I have said here before, I reckon Jenny Brokie on SBS does a far more mature and sensible q&a show with “Insight” than the tabloid effort from Tony Jones.

      • halroldus,
        noted.

        triage,
        I agree. ‘Insight’ is a great show and it shows what can be done when there is a desire to do something well. One of the things I enjoy about it is that it doesn’t appeal to everyone all of the time. People will find some shows interesting and have not interest in others solely due to the topics. That’s much better than just trying to maximise ratings at the expense of quality.