Macro Afternoon

The biggest loser in the Asian session today was the Kiwi on a big job number miss first up this morning, falling more than 100 pips against USD and AUD. Aussie stocks lifted on the back of a much weaker Australian dollar and a continued rebound in bank and financials.

US and Eurostoxx futures are drifting down slightly with the four hourly S&P 500 futures chart falling back from its recent readiness to launch higher from the psychologically important 2700 point level, where traders are looking for a weekly close above the weekly downtrend line (upper black line):

Japanese stock markets were unable to translate weakness in Yen into any gains today with the Nikkei 225 closing about 0.6% lower at 20751 points. The USDJPY pair came back from its recent overnight gain but then has rallied again late this afternoon to be just under the 110 handle and the previous weekly highs. Note how close price is clustering here at these session highs which suggests a violent outbreak could be imminent:

The ASX200 was helped along by a much lower Aussie dollar despite the poor macro news with the market closing nearly 1.1% higher to really surge above the 6000 point barrier at 6092 points. as all short positions get covered. The Australian dollar has flopped right through the 71 handle now after failing to find a base following the recent reversal off Governor Lowe’s comments. I’m expecting the January low below 71 cents to be the pause point here:

The economic calendar continues tonight with a big event – the latest BOE meeting followed by US initial jobless numbers.

Comments

  1. Just back from the third quadrant of the teeth cleaning after another hour of scraping hell.

    This time that little grinder found an aural pathway straight into the ear canal. Like a demon singing to me.

    Did get some boob hat tho.

      • I think the dentist couldn’t move the tray out of the way – if you know what I mean 😀

        That, or Harry has teeth all around his head, so quarter of them would be like – 200 or so 😀

      • 12 years.

        She’s doing it to punish me.

        On the bright side I won’t have to go back until 2031, and hopefully the problem will have resolved itself.

    • Have a cracked tooth that got infected recently. Was in Chaing Mai so thought why not see a dentist. Initial consult by technicition 100baht. ($5) add a xray, $16 all up. Wanted to see what dentist would say, another 100baht. You could convert those baht values to aussie dollars and you would still probably pay more here. This country is broken beyond belief. Im over it.

      • 20 years ago – molar porcelain crown in the old country: root canal, imprint, fitting – $80US…
        4 years ago – another molar porcelain crown: same deal (but this was a milled instead of putty imprint) – $3500AUD.

        Yep – we’re f*cked.

      • You are dead right mate.

        I bit into a chicken schnitty that had a rock or seed or something in the breadcrumbs and chipped both my front teeth last week.

        Bill for repair of both teeth was over $600, less $160 from my laughable health “insurance” so ended up paying about $460.

        It sux.

    • I had a female friend from years back who was a dentist — one of the biggest issues (for her) was male patients getting erections. Oh, how we chuckled. How a dentist’s drill can elicit such a reaction is beyond me …. although …. my dentist’s new assistant has certain ‘comely’ characteristics, I have to admit.

    • Cnuts. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

      Henry’s effort at the RC was one of the most appalling things I’ve ever seen from a public figure. Humiliation is in order. Good on Hayne for flogging them. Next comes the barbed wire and Dettol.

    • Ken Henry gets interviewed by Leigh Sales, obviously lined up before the announcement. Pretty pointless imo, he’s a feather duster so anything he says now carries no weight. I can’t blame Sales for going ahead with the interview but no amount of puppy eyes from Henry now will make up for his outrageous performance at the rc.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ah-U48lq4n0

  2. Well I’m still debt free. Missed out on another property lol.. but the bearish MB headlines make me feel a little better. Missus is not gonna be happy..

      • Well it’s under offer, but subject to finance etc.. I put mine uncodntional, buyer could bolt I suppose…but I think the Universe is trying to tell me to wait. Haha.

    • I looked at 3 places over Christmas.

      1. I offered $838k they got $965k
      70 Caledonia Street St Andrews Vic 3761 https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-st+andrews-129548242

      2. Wanted $1.1m originally. But sold for $960 I think or $980k. I didn’t like this 1 much..
      60 Flora Crescent St Andrews Vic 3761 https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-st+andrews-130064054

      3. But the 1 we really wanted was this… They originally listed at $1.1 also but came down. I offered $903k ($100k more than I wanted to pay really) since it sold in Jan 2017 for $770k. But they got another very conditional offer of $950k.. so they have taken the higher offer. I believe the other party originally wanted to make an offer subject to the sale of a block of land in Diamond Creek. Which was weak sauce.

      10 School Road St Andrews Vic 3761 https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-st+andrews-129804734

      Anyway another failed attempt. Still some bulls out there.

      • Wow – Gav, excellent taste as always, I really like that place. Would be a great place to live for a long time.

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        You better get in before you miss out as places like those will be extra booming very soon.

      • Sic semper tyrannis

        Sorry mate – but that is a laugh – a 2 acre block with a mud brick on it for a million dollars.

        Spent my youth around there, married someone from there – the idea is just laughable.

        Anyway – theres no convincing you – and you are going to lose everything you own – but those places are not worth $300k

      • Sic semper tyrannis

        This might sway you – Ive been watching land in regional victoria – anything over 10 acres for nearly a decade – and basically one or two a month was coming on – as I said the other day. Things started to really pick up – I am now seeing 4 or five come on every few hours.

        Not a word of a lie – Im just refreshing the browser and watching new ones every time – how on earth can you buy into this ?

      • @bcnich – I actually think that’s the price range they will be at also.
        @reusachtige – The boom is about to get boomier.

        The reason it’s on the rise is because probably the boom times are getting even more boomer.

        @Sic semper tyrannis – Hard to keep up with all the name changes :).

        Anyway – theres no convincing you – and you are going to lose everything you own – but those places are not worth $300k

        I think you’re over exaggerating, but it also depends on your level of leverage. Is it a bad investment? Probably short term anyway. I just hope this bubble pops bigly soon!

        I agree prices are falling, but sometimes we buy based on emotion not logic. 🙂

      • Seems to me that’s a case of “accidents happened, and it burned to the ground, too bad, so sad”

  3. CBA now sees house prices declining faster than expected, and thinks Labor’s housing policy will be a factor | Business Insider

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cba-now-sees-house-prices-declining-faster-than-expected-and-thinks-labors-housing-policy-will-be-a-factor-2019-2

    • The Commonwealth Bank thinks the downturn in Australian home prices will now be larger than it previously thought.

    • It says weaker growth in housing credit and deteriorating sentiment towards the outlook for prices are the main factors behind the downward revision.

    • The largest price declines are likely to occur in Sydney and Melbourne. A mixed performance is expected across the smaller capitals.

    • It says there are both downside and upside risks to its forecasts. One of the downside risks is Labor’s proposed changes on the tax treatment of housing.

    • While there is the potential for larger price falls, it says there’s two factors that should prevent a price crash.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Was it my imagination or was he good when he headed Treasury? Seems f’in impossible to believe now (like KR having been PM level hard).

      Oh, and Joe Where’s my PMship Hockey having been Treasurer. That was giggle-worthy from the start.

      • He used to be good. His tax review…entirely ignored by gummint…was a pretty good piece of work. Then he got taken over by the dark side and went to NAB.

  4. CoreLogic listings figures for Canberra – as reported by UE on Wed am – were 2200 listed properties including 539 new ones in the past 28 days.

    In the two days since then Allhomes (Domain) has added 222 new listings. That’s another 10%. In two days.

    Wheeeee!

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