CS: 4th quarter GDP is “disastrous”

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by Chris Becker

With the construction activity miss this morning, the team at Credit Suisse are out with a note explaining how “disastrous” 4Q GDP will be, and why the RBA is well behind the curve:

Retail sales growth was anaemic, and construction activity fell, led by engineering and residential spending. Net exports probably also dragged.

Expenditure Component QoQ% % GDP Contribution
Retail Sales 0.1% 36.4% 0.04%
Construction Activity -3.1% 12.0% -0.37%
Net Exports -0.29%
Total -0.61%

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