Big Bill’s bazooka shoots down Australian dollar

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Rocks everything actually. The AUD moonshot on jobs before Big Bill Evan’s interest rate cut call shot it down:

Bonds too:

XJO reversed 70 points:

Big Iron is mostly up:

Big Gas still doesn’t care about Labor:

Big Gold is surprisingly weak:

Big Banks are riding the bazooka. I’m not a believer in this bond proxy rally for much longer:

Big Realty is up a little as well:

Remarkable moves for one interest forecast change. Bill Evans is by far the best in the market (outside of yours truly). But the magnitude of today’s moves tells us as well just how bad everyone else is.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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  1. Probably took out a few stop loss shorts above 7190/7205
    Most recent bear rally highs have been 74, then 73 and now off 72
    Could 7210 be another short term high

    • Wait to see March 1 outcome on trade talks.

      Then go short in readiness for 5 March RBA meeting and 6 March gdp print. What do you reckon?

      • I reckon it’s like a game of pass the pineapple; just hope you’re not the one holding it when the music stops.

  2. arrow
    I cant see why Aussie isn’t lower, it definitely helps that we went above 72, took out a few shorts and maybe a few people are a little long now.
    I think USD(DXY) will be well above 100 this year
    Think AUD will be 60s but it depends on Eur/Cny and market is so manipulated.
    Think we have a look at 7,000 in ASX and think we may see 8,000,9,000 or higher but would like to reasses
    Think if dollar rallies gold may head under 1100 but think we will see above 3,000/4,000, maybe higher in next few years
    Think Euro will break up, think Italy Greece etc need to devalue or they are in a depression for ever
    Think Germany will never be repaid what’s it’s owed but they have fleeced the rest of Europe
    I think the RBA will definitely print, and maybe buy long dates gov bonds which I think may drive ASX above 10,000 in this cycle if RBA tests 50c and Aussie 10 year close to 1%
    Think there will be a bail in on Aussie banks
    Not sure about China, think slower like Pettis says, they are moving to a consumer based economy

      • Maybe WW but CNY and DXY are having an effect
        Think you are right
        That’s was a very strong rejection at 7210
        It’s been a strong reflection each bear rally at 73/74 recently too

      • Give the technicals away
        fundamentally if the dollar goes down the country goes broke
        this weekend take a walk, 2 to 4 hours, around the poor side of town
        not a drive, a walk, and look and smell
        very many punters are on the edge of ruin.
        10% inflation from a devalued dollar will take out many more than you think.
        if that happens there is no turning back

      • I’m on you with that, WW. Realised cost of living is higher than CPI suggests if Martin North’s survey data is anything to go by. In the car dependent, sprawling developments surrounding our capitals, the last thing that households need is expensive fuel.

      • WW
        Aust has been heavily addicted to debt, they’ll have enter rehab at some stage
        That’s just thd way it is

      • when they go
        you go
        best you leave the country beforehand
        and take all your possessions.
        cos anything left behind will be stolen

      • WW I feel like the outcome is going to be the same, just the road to ruin might vary.

        RBA holds to defend the AUD, households are crushed by debt which triggers recession, crashing AUD and lower rates.
        Or RBA cuts to protect mortgage holders a bit longer, but imported inflation and lower AUD crushes consumption leading to recession and a further housing crash.

        End state will be the same. Rates to zero, AUD to 50c, inflation, recession, RBA printing, bank bail outs (I don’t think gov will risk mass revolt voter backlash from bail in after houses have halved)

  3. nah ….. RBA may be able to hold it at 0.70 for a little bit, but doesn’t have the ammo to take on the big hedge fund dealers. Once they – the fundies – decide playing AUD up & down like a yoyo has become too risky (which will maybe be triggered by RBA etc come March and what is laughably referred to as ‘the Budget’), see a quick move into the 60’s with entrenched resistance at 0.70 ……