Aussie bonds rocket towards recession

Friday 8 February 2019

With the RBA’s Futureboom dying of its own hand this week, bonds took off. Then last night they really got moving, especially at the long end:

The resulting curve flattening has pushed us all the way down to 2011 at the long end:

While the belly of the curve has inverted again, a goodly recession indicator:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.