Macro Afternoon

The Asian session was dominated by the release of the latest Chinese PMI manufacturing numbers, which remained in contraction mode, while the PBOC gave the Yuan a big push higher against USD, manuevering before the latest round of trade talks with the US. The reaction to the Federal Reserve’s meeting overnight has seen most undollar assets continue their rally, with the Australian dollar still well above 72 cents while gold also advanced.

Chinese shares are powering ahead with the mainland Shanghai Composite currently up 0.% to 2593 points while the Hang Seng Index has advanced more than 1.2% to be at 27977 points, pushing well higher above the previous false break high above 27100 points:

US and Eurostoxx futures are also getting a move on with the four hourly S&P 500 futures chart advancing from last night’s very solid gains with more positive expectations for earnings print tonight:

Japanese stock markets have done extremely well given the headwind of a major stronger Yen with risk sentiment overshadowing as the Nikkei 225 is currently more than 1% higher to 20812 points. The USDJPY pair continues to fall below previous trailing ATR support and below the 109 handle although this looks too far, too fast with momentum well overcooked to the downside:

The ASX200 is the worst performer, barely hanging on at only a few points lower at 5884 points as the Australian dollar weighs on local risk. The Aussie is now well above the 72 handle following last nights’ spike on the back of the FOMC meeting with the 73 handle and a two month high well in sight:

The economic calendar continues to ramp up overnight with two important releases in Europe first, namely German unemployment and Italian 4Q GDP print. In the US its a backlog of data with the core personal consumption expenditure print – a key measure of GDP –  an initial jobless claims coming out.

Comments

    • LOLz, I’m ok with this. My stocks rallied, hoping they will keep going until I can sell (insider trading – trade restrictions for me) and I am happy to cash out. It’s been an amazing bull run for 10 years. Time to know when to fold.

      • haha good stuff. I pulled out last year, so not fazed from an investment perspective. More p!ssed off by what it says about the Feds true purpose; which is to inflate and maintain bubbles for the benefit of vested interests…. sounds familiar. Ah well, at least this rally should have the legs to see you out the escape chute, mate.

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      Nah, it was Trump threatening to fire him. Everybody caves to personal interest sooner or later.

    • Last week I overheard that some insurance companies already refusing to insure unless they get access to your complete medical history. No idea if this is true or even legal. Can someone confirm?

  1. Pretty sure judges are rac1st.

    Justice Fagan also said the Muslim community should more strongly denounce violent verses in the Quran.

    “Assurances are from time to time offered to Western communities that ‘Islam is a religion of peace’,” he said.

    “But in the absence of express public disavowal of verses which convey Allah’s command for violence, as quoted in the jihadist literature tendered in this case, such assurances are apparently contradicted.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-31/islamic-bonnie-and-clyde-eligible-for-parole/10767532

    • This particular one might well be. If you consider his statements from the time he was a prosecutor.

  2. Tesla’s big storage battery in SA sparks other big orders
    https://www.afr.com/business/energy/teslas-big-storage-battery-in-sa-sparks-other-big-orders-20190131-h1aoou

    Investment properties put on ‘black economy’ watch list
    https://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/investment-properties-put-on-black-economy-watch-list-20190131-h1aoin
    [Getting a discount by paying a tradie cash to do work on an investment property could become a lot more costly thanks to a crackdown on unlawful payments being finalised by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and Black Economy Taskforce.]

      • Divide et impera

        Yes. Victoria’s electricity costs $365 Billion / year – thats the problem when dealing with extremists. Even the slightest look at their arguments results in absurdly risible outcomes that leave one rolling on the floor literally choking from laughter.

        But please – quote away from your awesome material.

  3. Napoleon Perdis into voluntary administration.

    Another round of redundancies at my work (civil engineering) and my sisters work (insurance). Office morale has been destroyed in both workplaces from the first round of redundancies.

    Unemployment down? Load of bull. Depressing times.

    • We have growth in BS jobs, and part time work. These kind of jobs (Engineering) are going to go the way of the dodo.

      • My engineering department went from 35 down to 7 during the mining bust; years of wave after wave of redundancies. We had adjoining workshops with 400 fitters and boilermakers… all gone. Manufacturing capacity was somewhat replaced in the recovery…. with offshore facilities. Not unique to my company either. Globalisation hard at work. When HnH says mining is detached from the household sector, I know firsthand what he’s talking about lol. Capex goes offshore, right alonside profits from the sale of the dirt itself; nary an Aussie involved inbetween.

        @Dyllip
        Morale still hasn’t recovered at my work.

      • Divide et impera

        People do not realise that Asians are now far more wealthy than white westerners.

        The old adage of white privilege is so utterly steeped in a deep lack of respect and profound ignorance of other races – the poor orientals…..white man oppressing them.

        On price parity Asian is almost double that of its western counterparts – there is such a steep serious lack of understanding on this issue.

        My god – one day the left is going to wake up and instead of saying we need to respect all genders, all identities must be equally represented in all aspects of life, and white men are to blame for everything – they will instead ask why are there no jobs. Why do we earn so little, why have we fallen so far behind, why are we last – its white mens fault.

      • LOL. Suddenly domestic violence is an issue after all.

        I don’t watch much commercial TV (and this is why). Who’s the little toff peddling the false dilemma and what other issue is he trying to distract from ?

    • One slightly off-beat medicine that my wife needs is once again hard to source as in 2009 and 2011………chemist confirms many medicines hard to get at the moment……..could be New Year run down but I could never discover last time whether it is a letter of credit problem in China or the factories actually shutdown.

      • Try a hospital pharmacy. Longer wait, and you’ll be exposed to people abusing the system, but they often stock odd things there.

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        There is a huge shortage of medicines in NZ as well. Pharmacies are rationing the pill, condoms, and painkillers (amongst other things). I’m thinking its a Labour conspiracy to breed more bogan voters.

    • Just another reason this recession will take the RBA and others completely by surprise.

      On the upside it means they will be too late to halt the crash.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Yes, I mean it’s not like theycoodanode or anybody told them what was going to happen.

        But you’re wrong about it being too late to stop – you mean too late to stop in anything that approaches a sane or reasonable manner. And from that you can infer…

    • Get in with road/rail design/construction, while government is spending big on these projects. I think this industry will be set for next 5 years. Opinion, of course.

      • My company is trying to get into these projects but its hard because we specialised in residential subdivisions… which have been winding down since late 2017. Barriers to entry are high when you don’t have the experience of the big boys.

  4. Napoleon Perdis into voluntary administration.

    Another round of redundancies at my work (civil engineering) and my sisters work (insurance). Office morale has been destroyed in both workplaces from the first round of redundancies.

    Unemployment down? Load of bull. Depressing times.

  5. The Traveling Wilbur

    Here comes the Hayne train, if the usual run of ‘no-insider-knowledge-complete-conincidence-in-the-lead-up’ is anything to go by. Finally!!!:

    S&P/ASX 200 Financials 5,550.80…

    -1.5%. In one day.

    Annualise that y’all!

    • Saw that a while back. Kinda interesting – you could live off mushrooms grown down the old mine tunnel! – although for me a prepper home needs to be hidden / vaguely harder to find than that rather conspicuous tower.

      Definitely more exciting for the money than a Sydney sh!tshack.