Macro Afternoon

Caution reigns as traders weigh up the next FOMC meeting and continued US earnings, as the fallout from Caterpillar’s result last night and no further developments in US/China trade talks kept risk off the table. Currencies are relatively stable although the Kiwi is seeing a late bid, while the PBOC strengthening of the Yuan fix saw offshore trading fall down to the 6.75 level against USD.

Chinese shares are selling off slightly going into the close with the Shanghai Composite currently down 0.2% to 2593 points while the Hang Seng Index is similarly weak, down 0.1% to 27539 points, still maintaining a daily close above the previous false break high above 27100 points which should give the bulls hope:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly going into the London open with the four hourly S&P 500 futures chart barely holding on to last week’s support at the 2630 point level where the BTFD crowd needs to step in soon here:

Japanese stock markets are the best performers for the day, but its not much with the Nikkei 225 eking out a minor 0.1% uptick to 20664 points. This is no doubt due to a much stronger Yen with a late selloff help pushing the USDJPY pair to remain just above the 109 handle where it could reverse below very quickly here:

The ASX200 is the laggard losing nearly 0.6% to finish its first day back at 5874 points. The Australian dollar put in a late rally after floundering due to a very poor NAB business survey, currently just abvoe the mid 71’s against USD, but still facing a short term downtrend going into the FOMC and next weeks RBA meeting:

The economic calendar continues overnight with US home price data and the latest consumer confidence print plus a few wonky economic speeches from ECB and BOE boffins.

Comments

    • The Canberra light rail is depending on those skyboxes to generate enough bums on seats.

      Better subsidise construction and pack them full of public housing.

      A concession ticket sold is better than nothing.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Mandate people in Canberra paid by the Federal Government have to travel by public transport. Simples.

      • Pfh – yes – and as for those hundreds of new units in the new suburbs and also those in far flung established suburbs that will never get a sniff of light rail… madness.

        🔥🔥🔥

    • Cheers mate, I will! And thank you for spelling my name correctly. It’s a rare feat 🙂

      My partner works in Civic and told me she’d seen an actual white elephant today. I had to bite of course, and she told me it was a tram doing a test run up Northbourne Ave.

      We both agreed that it would be an invaluable service and well worth the millions of dollars paid by ACT punters living in Scullin and Weston as we do, and pretty much anywhere else in Canberra really.

      Good for the construction companies though, and the ACT politicians who’ve no doubt done very well out of the project through real estate deals etc.

    • mild colonialMEMBER

      That was painful to read what a dogs breakfast. Why don’t we just throw a few mad and random facts together and see if someone can get a story out of it. The story you get when we’re busy trying to hide the real story. Why wasn’t the Apartment Sun-King mentioned? Why not the numbers of international students? Why not our categorisation as regional and the immigrants flocking here to get regional credits. The number of domestic student places bumped by the universities as international places increase, as MB manages to report. The growth of population of 15,000 a year. 55,000 dwelling units in the pipeline? What’s the timeframe on this pipeline. The ACT has not yet got past building 7000 dwellings a year, it always matches exactly the number of people arriving here halved to meet our average of 2 occupants per dwelling. So 55,000 is a seven year supply? I don’t think so.

    • And there it is! Check your privilege.

      Someone should have a word in his ear about how the monetary system works. Pretty soon he will be keen as to start his own bank and loan public money into existence.

    • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

      “director of the Center for Human Rights, who represented 25 black defendants in the notorious Upington trial in the 1980s. Both Fedler and Durbach are among the 15,000-plus Jewish South Africans who now live in Australia.”

      lol

  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    Oh seriously? Because filler Markets?

    The PM just announced the Hayne report would be in lock down once handed to Govt until MONDAY in the a.m. Because filler Markets.

    A) Sorry if this is old news.
    B) That has actually ruined my weekend plans. Bstrd.

    So let’s play ‘favourite thing that may be in the report’. Mine would be His Honour’s assessment that significant criminal breaches in various areas REMAIN UNREPORTED and that as financial institutions can’t be relied on to self-report, govt appointed tasks forces (plural) are required to detect remaining instances of undisclosed AML breaches and insurance frauds.

    That would be awesome.

    • More fun will be had witnessing to all those who declared Australia’s financial industry to be above board and beyond reproach rewrite their own histories on the subject.

    • “His Honour”
      A deserved appellation in this case, when so often gifted appellations of social respect are not.
      His Honour Justice Hayne. I would be happy to refer to Justice Hayne to his face using this term of respect, one I feel he has truly earned, as exemplified by his conduct during the RC. Not to mention Counsel Assisting Rowena Orr and others.
      A cracking good example of high public office executing it’s power responsibly.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    The PooMoo just announced the Hayne report would be in lock down once handed to Govt until MONDAY in the a.m. Because Markets.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    So let’s play ‘favourite thing that may be in the report’. Mine would be His Honour’s assessment that significant cirminal breaches in various areas remain unreported

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      and that as financial institutions can’t be relied on to self-report, govt appointed tasks forces (plural) are required to detect remaining instances of undisclosed AML breaches and insurance frauds.

      That would be awesome.

  4. Interesting from Sally mcmanus

    We have 1.4 million temporary visa in Australia. Nearly half the jobs the Coalition created are temporary visa jobs. Plus there is the growth of casual and part time jobs. #abc730
    ttps://twitter.com/sallymcmanus/status/1090170064211369984?s=19

  5. In the midst of the heatwave last week, had following conversations with coworkers:
    -one said he went to Canada a few years back and said on very cold days when snow is thickest, schools, businesses etc shut down and people stay indoors & that Australia should have the same rules with extreme heat. Other countries do it and it does not affect their economy, why cant we?
    -another came from Wales and same thing, too cold, too much snow, only essential services are open, the rest close up. They could not believe that Aust govt and business make Aussies work in such heat.

    Doesnt it happen in the US as well?

    Must be our white slave convict roots. Time for govt, workers and business to show real leadership on the issue and accommodate for a changing climate. Days off when it is too hot, work from home (if possible), it will ease pressure on the infrastructure in the heat.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/small-business/out-of-control-businesses-fear-heatwave-havoc-will-continue-20190128-p50u2l.html

    • well I’m doing my part. I’m on a personal crusade to work from home every time there is extreme weather (hot/wet/storms) unless priority meetings dictate I have to be in the office or elsewhere !

      • what if your workplace is dead against working from home? even if you are a back office peep, you still cant work from home. not all employers are “with the times”.

    • Whenever a factory is over 40deg inside it’s time out till it’s below again, but most bosses ignore it (oh it’s only going to be for an hour, you’re tougher than that…..). Ignoring the high temp lead up & drop off hours too – it’s not safe when you can’t focus!

    • That is hilarious. In the same vein as changing your smoke alarm battery every time you change a PM.
      But really sad too. Just like the men’s cricket team, you’d like to see them rebuild again into a winning group that performs at a high level. Neither side of politics looks all that hopeful right now.

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    “The Australian Government “ is really splashing the cash on TV advertising at the moment . Telling the punters what great things they are doing .
    Nothing like emptying the coffers to their mad men mates while trying to get some rub off for the LNP. There should be a rule this sort of waste of Taxpayers money should not be allowed in an election year ……..yes ..naive I know

    • Every government tells the people how good they are; no-one else will.
      Every government knows the lessons of Neville Wran … always give the punter a reason to vote for you.
      So they are telling you about what they are going to be doing in the next term, and how they are making it happen.
      Get used to the messaging – this government has been travelling so badly it needs tell its message on repeat for months to maybe get competitive.
      The only humorous thing right now is watching the ALP guys(mostly) complaining on TV how the Libs are trying to scare voters about recession, franking credit loss of income etc …. they think we forget Mediscare and how effective that proved to be!

  7. Government gives green light to $50b black economy reform taskforce
    https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/government-gives-green-light-to-50b-black-economy-reform-taskforce-20190129-h1al7a
    [By Duncan Hughes
    The federal government has accepted – or agreed in principle to – almost 70 per cent of the recommendations made by the Black Economy Taskforce aimed at tackling illegal activities estimated to cost the nation about $50 billion a year.]

  8. Sydney, Melbourne house prices head towards 10pc falls: Corelogic
    https://www.afr.com/real-estate/sydney-melbourne-house-prices-head-for-towards-a-10pc-fall-corelogic-20190129-h1alv3
    [By Su-Lin Tan
    Sydney and Melbourne house prices have tumbled again as they edge closer to a full 10 per cent decline over the past year.

    In the lead up to the official price update for January at the end of the week, CoreLogic data shows Sydney house prices have fallen 9.5 per cent in the 12 months up to January 27.

    Melbourne’s house prices have fallen 8.2 per cent. In contrast, Brisbane and Adelaide’s house prices were flat over the year.]