Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Trump’s address to the US in primetime had almost no impact on markets trading here in Asia, despite him not invoking the emergency use of powers to fund the wall (aka fence aka distraction device), thus setting up another stalemate with the polarised US Congress. Instead, markets are pivoting to any good news coming out of the US China trade talks which continue into their third day.

The Shanghai Composite is up 1.4% to 2564 points as confidence comes back, now building clinging above previous support at 2500 points.  The Hang Seng Index is soaring as well, up nearly 3%,  up to 26549 points. This is just now well above previous support at 25600 and sets up a new rally to get back above the previous highs at 27000 points:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up going into the London open with the four hourly S&P 500 futures chart continuning to build on the new weekly high and ready to tackle the psychologically important 2600 point level:

Japanese stocks had a solid session as expected with the Nikkei 225 lifting 1% to keep building above 20000 points, closing at 20418 points. The USDJPY has lifted again, almost getting through the 109 handle, after recently breaking through significant resistance at the 108.50 level:

The ASX200 did well even considering the dwelling approval print and the higher Aussie dollar, casting aside macroeconomic reality for correlated risk sentiment, lifting nearly 1% higher to 5778 points. The Aussie dollar has continued to make good on its recent gains, now up to the 71.50 level against the USD, after a minor quibble over the dwelling approvals early release:


Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • Goes to show the ethics of our new PR’s. Local shopping centre near me, a new store opened that pretty much just sells baby formula and vitamins. They even take care of shipping for the daigous. Every time I walk past there’s a pile of boxes ready to be shipped off to China.

      • A self centred society with a me me me attitude that cares nothing for the wider community and is all about the self. Of course the same claims are laid at the feet of Gen Y. I don’t blame the Chinese either, if you were raised in a dog eat dog society it would probably be the only way to survive, but whatever happened to cooperation and helping your neighbour and serving the community etc..?

      • It wouldn’t bother me if it was iPhones or Gucci handbags, but clearing stores out of baby formula to sell at a profit and leaving none for local infants makes my blood boil. And that pushing and shoving is like a pack of piranhas.

        Should introduce a new rule. 2 tins per customer when you have a baby in tow. If you don’t have a baby in tow, then the price per tin is $200 and you can buy as many as you want. With the extra profits going to the local childrens hospital.

      • The best way to stop it would be have a system that requires every purchaser of baby formula to have a tax file number and enter it at the check out. No one other than mothers will buy it then.

      • Tripster, TFN’s don’t have photo’s so even that won’t work. Even my idea won’t work as the next thing would be renting babies out to buy formula! You’d need to fingerprint the babies to limit to 2 tins per baby!

      • @ tripster. Sounds like some are calling for a social credit system that offers preferential treatment to others.

        A2 platinum is the current item of choice for the daigou. Wonder how long that will last? Think they should jack the price and use the additional income to expand production. See if they can make the transition to a Veblen good.

    • They are only buying from Australia because they are afraid of counterfeit product in China. The solution is to import the counterfeit stuff from China, sell it to the local Chinese, who will then export it back to China.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        At least, at the very least, unlike a lot of Ozzies, they have a can dai-gou attitude.

      • The business is at the mercy of the Chinese government. They could kill it overnight by regulation and or spreading false contamination/substitution stories of Aussie grey imports via their troll army on Wechat.
        There’s nothing to stop anyone here from doing the same on Wechat. You only have to make it believable,
        While you go to work and pay income tax, there are some people out there making a tax free killing out of it.
        Its true, the Australian Taxation Office has really dropped the ball on this issue which makes me very angry.

    • Australia has lowered itself to their standards – apparently that’s the only way to live that’s not rashist – we are a pathetic country that really deserves it, please take over snowflake Melbourne first, actually the whole state is not worth preserving

    • It is not on your radar until you have an infant who is predominantly formula fed. Thankfully, ours is now old enough for cow’s milk but when you turn up to your local supermarket looking for a brand your infant tolerates only to find the shelves completely cleared it is actually not much fun and does engender a certain amount of rage..

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      So ridiculous, first off the Chinese are only interested in 2 brands of formula out of about 20 available brands, so they are not clearing out the shelves of formula leaving Australian babies to starve. Australian mothers can still buy the same formula brands as they did before A2 was invented, which was only a couple of years ago. Secondly, A2 guarantees supply of formula if you buy it from their online store so there is no need to even go into a supermarket to get it. But hey, dont let the facts get in the way of outraging people.

      • Excellent comment.
        Limit of 3 per customer per week seems pretty reasonable.
        So the only reason why Coles and Woolworths get cleared out on a daily basis is because they are simply the cheapest retailer? Of course it wouldn’t be in the news or medias interest to point customers away from ColesWorths? Easier to sell the idea of FOMO.

      • I’m going to expand on this so I don’t get a tard response. Say young mother starts weaning off the breast and tries a few formulas. One gives baby the sh1ts, one give gas, one seems to work fine. (anecdotes i’ve read) Chinese decide they want the one your babies digestive system works with and now you can’t buy it locally at all. Because THEY ARE MAKING FVCKING MONEY SENDING IT BACK TO CHINA Not!!! because they need it. So get off your fvcking high horse.

      • A2 Platinum which is one of the most popular brands bought by these Chinese Daigous, can be ordered online as they guarantee supply to everyone’s front door here in Australia. ( Also there is still plenty of other brands available left on the supermarket shelves to feed all of our home grown babies. Statements in the media of our infants having to starve is just BS and just ramping up moral outrage against the Chinese Australians that legally buy this product is bordering on being racist.

      • @Timmeh
        would you feel better or worse if instead of chinese buying it all, it was in low demand and the manufacturer simply stopped making it, leading to it being unavailable?

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        A2 Platinum isnt even SOLD in NZ (despite being made here) so I guess that means all NZ babies are currently starving to death! Or maybe, perhaps, NZ Mums are totally fine using a different brand? The 2 brands the Chinese want are A2 and Aptamil – if you are so concerned about supply, and can’t be bothered ordering it online, then I suggest you pick another brand. Its not that bloody difficult. NZers do it every day.

      • Thanks for informing & ameliorating the supply concerns I had KK. It may be a moral judgement reflecting my Aussie battler upbringing, but the spectacle of unadulterated Greed is still Gauche, wherever it comes from…. & it doesn’t look like a fair go, but a “Me first, F*** you…..” as the media have portrayed…….. An element of things this country’s not seen before…. or perhaps we have in RE…….

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        And if you want to run the “dont sell it to the Chinese” argument to its logical conclusion, A2 shouldnt even sell it in Australia to Australians. After all, its a NZ company, with a NZ made product, using our best and finest ingredients. Why should we ship it all to Australia for Australians to buy, when New Zealanders cant even buy the product here at home? It should be available in NZ only for New Zealand babies. You Aussies just want to take everything for yourselves while depriving our poor NZ babies. Shame on you! Next time your kid is guzzling on A2 formula, have a think about all the poor babies in NZ who cant get that formula due to your sense of entitlement.

      • Seems your mob are as big at selling out as us then, only along more official lines in this case? No pushy line of tax dodging Far Queues from the far east like here? It could be a mob of Kiwi’s (unlikely IME) with their elbows out, I’d still find it a different world than the one where people stood back & took their turn & ensured everyone got their fair share – the one we used to generally have till not too long ago. This is no country for even the middle aged anymore. Maybe that loss of the sense of a fair go to a sense of entitlement is a part of it. You don’t have that there?

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        Sadly Colin, NZ is home to one of the worlds biggest dairy exporters that has the Govt in its back pocket, and who squashes any innovation in the dairy space, including the daigou trade. Fonterra very cleverly (or so they thought) had the Govt ban private exports of dairy products out of NZ, until karma bit them on the ass by preventing the Fonterra brands from establishing a brand name in China through the daigou, which then resulted in them being dropped when companies had to select only 3 brands to export LOL.

  1. I’m very moved by the latest advertisements from Clive Palmer’s party. Really moved. I think I’ll leave it there. And there. Pardon me.

    • What do you think his underlying motives are? I can’t imagine he cares about the common person.

      • Opportunity.
        Clive has lots of money now that he won his case against CITIC and sees a political opportunity.
        I think he largely did his dash in 2013 but there is a hunger for a credible Trump-like figure in the electorate.

        Clive is no dummy either. He was the President of the Queensland Nationals. He knows retail politics better than Scummo and Shorten, I’ll wager that. He could surprise but I won’t be voting for him.

    • It will probably go up if they cut! We have what’s known as poonomics here as well as kangaroos and beaches!

    • The poo that won’t flush. You think to wafer thin cut to teh rates will sink it? Never!

    • They need to change their intro music. I feel like I’m watching antiques roadshow. Also their website looks like it’s from 1990 and I think they are climate change deniers?

      • Where did you get the idea they were CC deniers? Haven’t seen that in the ones i’ve watched. It’s usually pure economics.

      • From their website: Man-made global warming is a fraud. The so-called scientific “consensus” is a lie, designed to steamroll governments into adopting brutal policies that will shut down farming, manufacturing and energy industries, and kill millions of people. Numerous scientists the world over have publicly disputed the idea of man-made global warming, yet they are by-and-large blacked out of a media blizzard dominated by global warming entrepreneur Al Gore and his hand-picked ambassadors, such as Australia’s Tim Flannery.

      • That sounds odd knowing what I have seen of them. Can you post the exact link here?

        Edit: never mind Shawn, I thought you were talking about DFA, forgot the first link was CEC.

    • Isn’t that exactly what happened – Chinese bought all the water? Royal Commission now!!!

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Well yeah, some are. That Corrigan cesspit is involved too. I’d like to see him meet a messy fate.

      • Cubbie station has the biggest water allocation in that area and has had for a long time. It was only recently sold to the Chinese, so the problem lies back further. Why we grow a crop such as cotton in this dry country is absurd. Old mate Beetrooter has his filthy wandering hands in this too. That bloke needs to be taken out behind the shed.

    • That was posted yesterday, but not with video. Jesus christ, that could have easily killed her if those frames hit in the right spot. That sign is huge!

      • Huge sign, even bigger than the average investment grade apartment. Imagine an entire apartment fell down, or a whole building, or a whole market…


    A friend who owns a Toyota Camry once told me they were tired of being surrounded by Range Rovers when dropping the kids at day care.

    “I’m a successful lawyer!”

    The social pressure got to them, so now they’re financing a $US75,000 SUV, paying $US2000 per month between the loan, insurance, and gas.

    The same goes for a house. Just because a bank will lend you half a million dollars for a house doesn’t mean you need to purchase a half-million-dollar house.

    This guy is so unAustralian he’s American! haha. But if only more people lived like this guy.