Is China entering its own GFC?

Tuesday, 29 January 2019

There is lot’s of focus on Chinese growth and stimulus at the moment and for good reason. There were a couple of crucial data releases while I was holidaying that offer a lot of insight into 2019 prospects and they are worth revisiting.

First up broad credit, which still looks to be falling away:

Note that previous turns have not lifted activity for 6-9 months. This matters most in two areas of importance to Australian bulk commodities. The first is fixed asset investment growth which also continues to slow:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.