Can a Brazilian disaster save the Aussie economy?

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The terrible Brazilian mining tragedy that has iron ore prices running wild is something of a Black Swan event for Australia. Iron ore prices are volumes for the year ahead will now be higher than previously thought so we must ask if this changes the path for an economy clearly on the slide. Goldman’s assessment is useful:

The US investment bank raised its three, six and 12-month iron ore price targets to $80, $70 and $65 a tonne versus previous forecasts of $70, $60 and $60 a tonne.

It notes that Vale plans to offset the 40 million tonnes from decommissioning tailings dams after the Brumadinho disaster by increasing production elsewhere.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.