Martin North’s house price model worsens to 20-30% falls

Wednesday, 19 December 2018

Via Martin North today comes worsening news for house prices:

We have updated our home price scenarios using the latest available data, and discussed them during our live event which was streamed on Tuesday evening.

Most probable case is a peak to trough fall of between 20 and 30%, but risks continue to accumulate on the downside. We do not think recent “unnatural acts” from RBA and APRA will have much effect, given the legal obligations which currently exist relating to responsible lending (which were clearly not respected in recent years as the Royal Commission highlighted).

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.