Macro Afternoon

A sea of red across Asian bourses, but it’s a shallow sea with only minor losses outside China as traders await tonight’s FOMC meeting. Curreny markets were very quiet obviously, while gold crossed above $1250USD per ounce.

The Shanghai Composite closed down 1% or more to 2549 points in a steep selloff as previous support level at 2600 points becomes a distant memory.  The Hang Seng Index is actually up on the day, but barely a few points higher to 25843. After yesterday’s quite bearish candle on the daily chart, you can see the moving average band is still taking a dive as support at 25600 comes into play very soon:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up about 0.1% or so going into the London open, as caution reigns, with the daily S&P 500 futures chart showing how dire the situation is on Wall Street but we could get a big spike here if the shutdown is reversed and the Fed goes dovish:

Japanese stocks had another bad day but recovered some late in the session as Yen retreated slightly with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.6% to 20987 points now below terminal support at 21000 proper. The USDJPY pair has slowed down here, posting a possibly bullish falling wedge pattern on the four hourly chart, still slightly below the mid 112s as it approaches the previous weekly lows at just above the 112 handle:

The ASX200 eventually closed flat after a late selloff that was filled in at the close, down a few or 0.16% to 5580 points, continuing to dice with terminal support at 5600 points, as traders get very nervous going into the FOMC meeting and the long Christmas break. The Aussie dollar has gone back to sleep, still slightly below the 72 handle as we all contemplate what the interest rate hike in the US will do to the Pacific Peso

The economic calendar has the big one tonight, the last Fed meeting of the year, but there is also the latest UK and Canadian CPI prints to tackle.

Comments

  1. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Soooooo…in light of APRA and RBA jibber jabber, how many shut-ins have their yellow vests on this evening?

    • They’d make up some law, charge you with it and then your life will be put on hold for a few years as the courts go about proving that the government really can’t do that type of thing. (When COAG was held in Melbourne they made up an anti protesting law. A friend was arrested and had to go through the above. He can almost laugh about it now.)

    • Just had a RC so when this blows up in their face they will have no fallback on plausible deniability.

  2. OK, place yer bets on whether the Fed will hold or raise and the kick the poo will get if they hold. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a two cent boost if they hold.

  3. … ‘China needs a market for free ideas’ … Nobel Laureate Ronald Coase at 101 years of age …

    Coase: China needs a market for free ideas – YouTube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GF9nW_5M5Ko
    .
    .
    How China Became Capitalist: R. Coase, N. Wang: 9781137351432: Amazon.com: Books

    https://www.amazon.com/How-China-Became-Capitalist-Coase/dp/1137351438
    .
    .
    … Note 41 minutes in, within this interview with Richard Epstein, Ronald Coase explaining that he had no training as an economist … and at the end his advice to young economists …

    A conversation with Ronald H. Coase : Richard A Epstein – YouTube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L1qvLVrSzU

    • More on Ronald Coase: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/09/thinking-like-coase-not-an-economist/

      And on that theme:

      Adam Smith, customs official and moral philosopher
      David Ricardo, banker
      Vilfredo Pareto, railway engineer
      John Maynard Keynes, mathematician
      Ronald Coase, business studies
      Kenneth Arrow, mathematician
      John Nash, mathematician
      Daniel Kahneman, psychologist
      Elinor Ostrom, BA in political science
      Oliver Williamson, BSc in management
      (closer to home) Ross Gittins, accountant

      There is a school of thought which holds that those who receive their initial training in economics may be less likely to contribute radical new ideas.

      Like all systems of thought, economics can take on a religious element amongst those who are indoctrinated in its core beliefs. See, for example, “The Church of Cardinal Preferences” here:

      https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/the-insufferable-conceit/#comment-241591

    • The cops on the way over east are very switched on to mules it seems. I got stopped a couple of times (once for speeding, second time for almost speeding) and a lot of seemingly innocent but actually probing questions were asked. Especially as I was in a van, but I must have passed the bullsh!t test as they didn’t ask to have a sneakypeek inside.

      Oh, I once got stopped and searched early in the morning after sleeping in the car at Albury. Had SA plates and weed running was pretty rampant at that point in time. Two traffic cops and a detective. Pulled over for no reason and car was gone through.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        If you had the same plates on the vehicle through all of that I assure you there were plenty of reasons you were pulled over on the subsequent occassions.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I was genuinely afraid you were going to say that.

        Were any people named Doug involved in any of those episodes (that’s my only remaining theory)? ‘Cause you should always just say “No” to Dougs.

    • Bloody outrageous.

      Far too harsh.

      This is Straya. By rights you should just have to pay it back, keep your job, apologise for the inadvertent oversight (getting caught) and no further questions.

  4. Is it a coincidence that the resident MB housing bulls were bitcoin bulls at exactly this time last year…?

      • They are hard to spot. But usually run the following line:
        “Yeh I don’t like the bubble either and banks are bad but the bubble won’t burst because Central Banks…”
        Kind of like:
        “Bitcoin is valuable because Central Banks”

      • Nah

        Sweeper is just losing faith in the public/private monetary cartel and is hoping that no one notices.

        According to Sweeper the market detached from fundamentals only few weeks ago and it is now all over red rover.

        We are all bears now.

        Some of us have lasers and wings!

      • You’re the one who keeps repeating the banks talking points.
        eg. “it’s not a bubble it’s supported by low interest rates, credit availability blah blah blah”
        or “the government won’t let it burst because it’s not a bubble”
        “central banks will keep it inflated”
        “if it’s a bubble it won’t burst for the first time ever in financial history”

      • Sweeper ….

        Not a peep on the shadow sector or one of the most corrosive elements – private equity [white anting capitalism].

      • Sweeper,

        You dont seem to understand what “quote” markings mean.

        They mean the person said it.

        I didn’t say those things.

        Try again.

      • Skippy,

        The shadow sector?. What is that?

        You mean non bank lenders unconnected to a bank?

        You realise if they make bad loans and go broke that is just tough luck for their investors?

        As for private equity. You seem clueless as usual as what they use for their cosy deals.

        Debt created by your private bank buddies.

        You know. The agency free folk you spruik for month after month and year after year.

      • pft…

        Do you realize everything you just said is wrong and detached from reality, but then again not surprising considering the 17th century framework and optics used in formulating your opinions [tm].

    • I mean, I have been thinking of joining twitter and the property forums just to troll sad bulls. Then I realised how wrong that would be. (Wrong mostly because AI and JSpitz and other worthies are already doing a far better job of it than I would).

  5. Hey Karl, how’s the honeymoon going.

    Well I’m a bit tired out, if ya know what I mean. But still, can’t wait to get back to work.

    Yeah mate, about that, etc etc

    😂

  6. Word on the street is that the Stefanovics are leaving 9. I’d like to see haroldus and stagmal replace them. Kochie wouldn’t stand a chance. And, if they are doing a purge, I believe I have what it takes to be a mildly entertaining morning show weather person. It’d also keep the three of us away from the comments section for a few hours, leading to two media outlets vastly increasing the quality of their product at once. That’s an all round win for Australia.

    • “Vulnerable students are being targeted by savvy exam cheating services” ahaha more like vulnerable students are being targeted by spivtastic universities…

    • Stan: I want to have babies.
      Reg: You want to have babies?!?!?!
      Stan: It’s every man’s right to have babies if he wants them.
      Reg: But you can’t have babies.
      Stan: Don’t you oppress me.
      Reg: I’m not oppressing you, Stan — you haven’t got a womb. Where’s the fetus going to gestate? You going to keep it in a box?

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Jeez ….now I understand ……all that PMT I suffered as a kid …..and as a wildly male heterosexual but in denial of my gender confusion as could be now suggested ….
      ……..well…..guess a chap can look forward to the hot flushs of menopause ……..but fear at my age I’ve missed that too ……..life is a bummer sometimes …….

    • ‘Conservatives still apoplectic that LGBTalphabetrainbow people not only exist but are seen as increasingly mundane in modern society.’

  7. From the Flint Hills board……………North Dakota light sweet oil $20 a barrel………….North Dakota sour oil $12.50 a barrel………..Wyoming asphaltic sour 25 cents a barrel

    I’m sure they are all telling their investors they are making money……….the biggest driver of US industry over for another couple of years

  8. Hmm, there is some other crappy thing the guys on this blog have put in place that just dissapears comments without even the moderation thing happening.

      • Very unusual article from the Australian bollocking our regulators. Very unAustralian!

        “Cap sacrificed on property altar”

        Thats the headline if you have a subscription or, other… means to read it.

      • Has old Uncle Rup’s finally decided to stick it to the Libs. I’m of the opinion these days he’s like the evil overlord that just decides he’s going to do something with his plaything “Australia” and entirely stir things up and upset the entire country on a whim because he is bored. His publications cheerleaded this bubble the entire way up, now he wants to watch us burn like some kid with a magnifying glass with ants.

      • Yep you see a flicker and no comment awaiting moderation. Seems it’s a wordpress Spam bot thing… you can’t write com!ng for example..

      • Lol, i had to watch that again. It’s amazing how fvcked we people can be. That dude has some serious issues to be behaving like that with some random dude that pissed him off on the road.

    • “Are you getting enough sleep? Are you using drugs too much? Are you drinking too much alcohol? Do you have enough exercise in your life?” Is your government running an immigration program with the intent of replacing you in a generation?

      Get some exercise.

      We have to adjust our expectations if we’re going to survive these changes.

      • Lol Harry exactly… I save my arse off in the hopes of buying a home but they keep moving the goal posts further and further back. Got a love letter from the ATO wants his quarterly $3k installment. Just paid them last month a $3k installment.

        Do you think they care the stocks have lost about $30k in last 6 months ? Nah… Oh and here is some more migrants to compete with. 😁

  9. Here is a property market indicator. My local rag InnerWestCourier.com.au – today I noticed the December edition didn’t have ANY Real Estate section. It was at a point where it was 3/4 Real Estate listings with a little local news thrown in. Lots of bragging about prices achieved etc.. now suddenly quiet. I wonder why?

    • You can expect that paper to fold within a few months then I suspect. Vacuum cleaner and sofa re-conditioning ads aint gonna save it!

    • you do realise Christmas is next week?
      Domain went quiet as of last week.

      Seems the ponzers are even having Christmass parties and final drinks for the year. Here is a fine one full of professionals:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D8xniWdcfU

      Suggest you track down that guy that failed to get into commercial real estate and get him to show you a place this weekend.

    • Her tweets are a bit all over the place. When it comes to corn in the US and sugar elsewhere though is how big Ag has managed to get the FDA and equivelant on board to drive us into a diabeties epidemic. Leith has had a few good articles on this. Just another example of big business lobbying to get what they want at the expense of ordinary people. Whether you like him or not, Jamie Oliver did a great series in the US trying to get schools to give kids actual nutritional food and was met with a lot of resistance from big food. We really are dominated these days by big corps who push their agenda down own throats for their own interest. It’s amazing and disgusting how we have let corporations basically take over our countries. Isn’t that what fascism is about? We are there right now.