Dick Wakelin capitulates today:
Sydney and Melbourne prices are likely to drift downwards in the first three to six months. That forecast is based on continued lending tightness by the banks until the dust settles after the publication of the final royal commission report in February and a general skittishness of participants. The downward trajectory will be broken only when a critical mass of discretionary prospective buyers sense there is value.
Prices in these large capitals may have fallen by a further 3 to 5 per cent by Easter, at which point they may plateau for the rest of the year. In absolute terms, I expect prices in Sydney to be about 12 to 14 per cent lower than their peak of September 2017 and prices in Melbourne to be 9 to 11 per cent lower than their peak of November 2017.
