Via Capital Economics:
• The latest survey data suggest that conditions in industry remained broadly stable last month. But we still think that growth will slow during the next few quarters, even though the immediate threat of additional US tariffs has receded.
• The Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up from 50.1 to 50.2 in November. This was stronger than anticipated (the Bloomberg median was 50.1, our forecast was 49.8) but still points to relatively subdued activity. It is consistent with growth on the China Activity Proxy – our in-house alternative to the official GDP figures – of around 5%, slightly below recent readings. The official manufacturing PMI, which was published on Friday and dropped to its lowest level in over two years, paints a similar picture. (See Chart 1.)
